Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:17 p.m. (ET)

Irish Jackson (#6) would look tough for this field to handle if you had confidence that she would get back to the form we saw from her just prior to the layoff. However, you have to be mildly concerned about her current condition as she makes her first start in nearly eight months. Rob Falcone is just 4 for 40 (10%, $1.73 ROI) with horses returning from 180- to 360-day layoffs over the last five years. I prefer some runners with more recency.

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:44 p.m. (ET)

This state-bred maiden special weight is one of the most competitive races of the day. Solid cases can be made for 6 of the 7 runners, with only the first time starter looking like a true longshot. 

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 2:44 p.m. (ET)

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 5:19 p.m. (ET)

This allowance race features the return of Grade 1 Hopeful third-place finisher Incentive Pay (#3). However, that was the 2024 edition of the Hopeful, and this horse hasn't run since. Chad Brown does have extremely strong statistics in this situation, going 8 for 27 (30%, $2.53 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more over the last 5 years. I'm still reticent to take too short a price on a horse who does need to improve to beat this field.

Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:46 p.m. (ET)

Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:42 p.m. (ET)

I'll be interested to see how the public approaches Wynstock (#5), who I tentatively pegged as the morning -line favorite in this $100,000 claiming race. He's sharply moving up in class, but he did absolutely romp against weaker foes last time, drawing off to win by over seven lengths with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that performance could beat this field, but I'm wondering if he will be as effective cutting back slightly to a one-turn mile.

RACE 7: WHATASTARR, a minor player last fall in Ireland, is returning to action with the addition of Lasix. She was beating company in her works before a fast solo half on the Tapeta the other day and looks poised for a breakout performance. DECISIVE DECEPTION has worked strongly for her debut for a trainer who rarely clicks at first asking. She’s bred for the grass on the dam’s side, as is another first-timer with solid drills, MADDOG. MO SASHA was along for second in her Jan.

Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:19 p.m. (ET)