Deterministic

Colt by Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown

Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms ($625,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by St. Elias Stables)

Deterministic makes a big splash as a newcomer to the Derby Watch Top 20 this week, debuting as the 12-1 third choice off his win in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, in just his second start, and off a layoff. The colt is from the consistently successful family of blue hen Courtly Dee and will look to call on some of that deep stamina as he progresses.

ARCADIA, Calif. – Betting every favorite in every one-mile dirt race this winter at Santa Anita has proven to be a winning tactic. Will it continue?

The three top races Friday are dirt miles, which have produced an unusually high rate of winning favorites – 53 percent (25 of 47) – and a corresponding flat-bet profit. One reason is limited starters. Average field size is 5.79 in dirt miles.

Jose Francisco D’Angelo is winning races. Lots of races. He would like to be able to win more of the better races.

That seems to be on the horizon.

Through Tuesday, D’Angelo has 33 wins this year, which ties him for seventh in the nation. He ranks second in wins at Tampa Bay Downs, fourth at Gulfstream Park.

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. – The millionaire Free Like a Girl will be one of the highest-profile shippers from Delta Downs to ever run at Oaklawn Park when she goes in the ninth race Friday.

The two-other-than allowance for fillies and mares will be run at a mile. The 10-horse field includes Backyard Money, who is stretching out to two turns off a runner-up finish in the Carousel; Jubella, who owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure; and Stellar Lily, who has won her last two races by a combined margin of 12 lengths.

WHO’S HOT

There’s a new kid in town. Deterministic, off nearly seven months, scored a decisive comeback victory in the Grace 3 Gotham Stakes on March 2 at Aqueduct to emerge as the newest addition to Derby Watch. Deterministic, 2 for 2, opens as 12-1 third choice by linemaker David Aragona.

Deterministic defeated Just a Touch by two lengths in the Gotham, a one-turn mile that was run over a sloppy track. Just a Touch, also making just his second career start, ran well. Aragona lowered his price from 30-1 to 20-1.

Trainers Chad Brown and Michelle Nevin each send out two runners in a six-horse field of older maiden males in the third race Friday at Aqueduct, the only non-claiming event on the eight-race card.

Brown’s pair of Clare Quilty and Pricing Power finished second and fourth, respectively, in a seven-furlong maiden race Feb. 9.

HOT SPRINGS, Ark. – The cold, hard truth is that Insensitive starts as one of the leading contenders in Thursday’s eighth race at Oaklawn Park.

Insensitive goes in a one-mile, first-level allowance for fillies and mares. The program is the first of five consecutive Thursday cards at the meet.

The feature drew 14, with Triple L’s Cutter and Lacie B Good, who has won her last four starts, on the also-eligible list. Paris Style, Xylophone, and American Band will get good support off competitive races in their last starts, while the same is true for Insensitive.

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Sedona, who fetched $2 million at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton sale of selected yearlings at Saratoga, made her long awaited debut here Sunday, rallying from a seemingly impossible position on the final turn to a promising half-length victory in the seven-furlong maiden special weight dash for 3-year-old fillies.

ARCADIA, Calif. – More than 35 years after he began his legendary career, jockey Frankie Dettori showed Sunday there are still milestones to achieve.

Dettori, 53, won the 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap for the first time aboard Newgate after a thrilling duel with Subsanador. Dettori first saw the Big Cap as a teenager in the late 1980s, the days in which he exercised horses in Southern California and rode sparingly before his career soared to worldwide fame beginning in the 1990s.

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Three months after they debuted against each other, Imaboutago and Karaya renew acquaintances Thursday in a first-level/optional $75,000 claiming race scheduled for five furlongs over Gulfstream Park’s turf course.

On Dec. 8, Imaboutago, after breaking a step slow, was sent to the lead by Paco Lopez, set fast fractions, and kicked clear in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths over Turf Rocket. It was another length back to Karaya in third.