NEW YORK - The Holy Bull Stakes is not like the Fountain of Youth when it comes to making an impact on the Kentucky Derby, and it certainly isn't close to the Florida Derby or any other major prep. Likewise, the Santa Catalina has never been mistaken for the San Felipe, let alone the Santa Anita Derby.

PHOENIX - In this season, in which the 3-year-olds picture is so murky, so confusing, I've begun to search high and low for the one who tugs at me.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - It is all too easy to look backward when handicapping, not forward. But when analyzing Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes, horseplayers will understandably be somewhat focused toward the future - to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

Although the Holy Bull appears to lack the top-to-bottom depth that will likely be seen in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby later this meet at Gulfstream Park, it does offer several exciting 3-year-old prospects, led by Silver Wagon, Second of June, and Friends Lake.

PHILADELPHIA - Funny Cide is now officially the first Kentucky Derby winner this century to embark on what appears to be a genuine 4-year-old campaign. In fact, Funny Cide could become the first Derby winner to make an impact as a 4-year-old since Real Quiet in 1998.

NEW YORK - So often these things never pan out. But if only this once the exciting prospect becomes a reality, then the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 7 will be a candidate for race of the year, regardless of what else happens in the rest of 2004.

PHOENIX - Random notes on a program:

I see Congaree may make his 2004 debut against Medaglia d'Oro in Gulfstream's Grade 1 Donn Handicap on Feb. 7. As much as I love Congaree, I don't think he stands a chance. It has nothing to do with his talent; it's because of Jerry Bailey.

LEXINGTON, Ky. - Rafael Bejarano is far and away the best jockey at Turfway Park, and whoever is second best is so far behind him that it barely matters. Barring injury or plans to relocate, he will continue to dominate the jockey standings with ease. The problem for Bejarano is that regardless of how successful he is at this meet, bettors will expect even more from him and will overbet the horses he rides so much that he is all but certain to come up short of their expectations.

New York - A Grade 2 stakes doubleheader at Santa Anita and two stakes for the Derby class of 2004 highlight the stakes action nationwide Saturday.

Sharing center stage at Santa Anita are the $200,000 San Fernando Breeders' Cup Stakes, the middle leg of the Strub Series, which began opening day with the Malibu, and the $150,000 San Gorgonio Handicap for fillies and mares on the turf.

ARCADIA, Calif. - Speed handicappers face a familiar predicament this weekend at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 San Fernando and the Grade 3 San Miguel.

The high-figure horse in Saturday's San Fernando has never raced in a graded stakes, yet the 105 Beyer Figure that Anziyan Royalty earned in a one-other-than allowance last month equals or exceeds the figure earned by four of the last eight San Fernando winners.

OZONE PARK, N.Y. - New Year's Day is the official "birthday" for all Thoroughbreds, which means that claiming races for older horses suddenly have an influx of new 4-year-olds.

Consequently, the early stages of a new season can be a time of maximum confusion for horseplayers, as they try to evaluate which of last fall's 3-year-old claimers can go on to compete successfully with their elders.