STRENGTHS: The younger full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage obviously has the pedigree to succeed at 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. He also blends an excellent combination of speed, class, and determination, the latter displayed when turning back an oncoming Sierra Leone to capture the Remsen over a sloppy track that might have played to Dornoch’s running style. Dornoch put it all together when graduating at Keeneland in his third start last year. Perhaps he’s cycling back to his best for this, his third race of 2024.
WEAKNESSES: His two races this year haven’t been as impressive as some of his starts as a juvenile. The Fountain of Youth was more workmanlike than brilliant when beating a weaker field, and he finished out of the trifecta when rematched with Sierra Leone over fast ground in the Blue Grass. All three of his wins came in gate-to-wire fashion, and it is unlikely that he’ll make the lead in the Derby. Perhaps the Blue Grass was an example of a true prep as he gained valuable experience rating behind horses. He still seems green as he often pulls hard in the early portion of his races and usually is late to make his crucial final lead change.
BETTING VALUE: Despite his pedigree and credentials, Dornoch seems like an underrated sort coming into this year’s Derby. He must prove that he can rate and finish, and he’ll need a Beyer boost, but there is ability here. Odds of 25-1 seem fair.

SIRE: Good Magic, the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and divisional Eclipse Award champion, won the 2018 Blue Grass to make himself one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. After finishing a strong second to Triple Crown winner Justify, he added another Grade 1 to his résumé in the Haskell Invitational. Good Magic, by two-time Horse of the Year and prominent stamina source Curlin, is the sire of 17 stakes winners from his first three crops, led by 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. He also is the sire of Grade 1 winner Blazing Sevens, a close second in last year’s Preakness Stakes, and multiple Grade 1 winner Muth
DAM: Puca finished second in the Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes and was a stakes winner at Suffolk Downs later in her career before going on to an outstanding start at broodmare duty. Her first foal was the multiple stakes-placed Gunning; her second was Mage, who, in addition to his 2023 Kentucky Derby win, was second in the Florida Derby and third in the Preakness and Haskell; and her third foal is multiple Grade 2 winner Dornoch. Puca is out of stakes-placed Boat’s Ghost, also the dam of turf Grade 1 winner Finnegans Wake.
OUTLOOK: A full brother to a Kentucky Derby winner, from a consistent classic sireline, Dornoch’s genetic aptitude for this task is unquestioned.

STRENGTHS: He was the most expensive yearling purchased at Saratoga in 2022 with a pedigree that is full of class and distance, suggesting that the Derby trip is unlikely to be an issue. Since arriving on track, he has never taken a backward step on Beyers and is a close photo away from entering the Derby undefeated. He is a powerful finisher and has improved with the addition of blinkers in his first two starts as a 3-year-old while emerging victorious in the Grade 2 Risen Star and the Grade 1 Blue Grass. He will likely have to pass several horses in the stretch of the Derby, but he is not a one-run closer and might be the strongest finisher in the field.
WEAKNESSES: As strong as his overall form is, he still only has four starts behind him, and the Derby is notoriously hard on inexperience. He did appear to lose focus after firing to the lead in the stretch of last year’s Grade 2 Remsen, which prompted his connections to add blinkers. While his potent late kick has been intact in two starts this year, he has shown a tendency to lug in a bit, and he was a handful to load into the gate when in front of a big crowd at Keeneland for his final prep. As a closing type, he is always at the mercy of pace and trip, which becomes more relevant as he is expected to be sent off at a short price against a large field in a race like the Derby.
BETTING VALUE: He has looked like one of the top colts in this crop from the start and is one of the horses to beat in the Derby along with likely favorite Fierceness. Sierra Leone might be viewed as the more reliable of the two based on overall form. He has a lot going for him, and anything in the 4-1 range might be considered fair, though he did draw post 2.

SIRE: This is the third crop for Horse of the Year Gun Runner. The son of stamina influence Candy Ride was an immediate breakout success at stud, with champion Echo Zulu helping him break the freshman earnings record in 2021. That first crop also included Preakness winner Early Voting. Third on the general sire list in 2023, Gun Runner is the sire of eight Grade 1 winners to date, seven of those around two turns.
DAM: Sierra Leone is the first winner from two starters out of Heavenly Love, dominant winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiades around two turns as a juvenile. Second dam Darling My Darling was multiple Grade 1-placed around one turn as a juvenile. Three of her daughters are stakes producers, including Grade 2 winner Forever Darling, dam of Kentucky Derby hopeful Forever Young.
OUTLOOK: Sierra Leone is by one of the hottest sires in the country, who has already proven his classic and two-turn aptitude.

STRENGTHS: Mystik Dan showed uncommon acceleration winning the Southwest, and the Beyer Speed Figure of 101 he earned backed up the visually appealing performance. It’s the fourth-highest Beyer from a 3-year-old so far in 2024. In addition, Mystik Dan is one of just two Kentucky Derby entrants to have ever posted a triple-digit Beyer, the other being probable favorite Fierceness. Mystik Dan made one start following the Southwest and was a troubled third in the Arkansas Derby. Following the race, trainer Kenny McPeek said an incident early on was costly. A rival who was later disqualified made enough contact, he said, to nearly unseat jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and leave Mystik Dan racing farther off the pace than intended. Mystik Dan has since turned in some strong works at Churchill, where he was a maiden winner last November.
WEAKNESSES: He’s yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles, and his pedigree might be tested over the added ground Saturday. The best race of his career came in the mud in the Southwest, although he put up his second-highest Beyer, a 96, on a fast track at Churchill. He must again face Catching Freedom, who he finished fifth behind in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn.
BETTING VALUE: Excellent. He could be in the 20-1 range, real value for a horse who is just one race removed from arguably one of the best prep performances of the season. Further, his connections have a longstanding familiarity with racing at Churchill.

SIRE: Goldencents, by Into Mischief, won the Santa Anita Derby. He later cut back to shorter distances, and twice won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. A prominent young sire, many of his offspring have excelled at middle distances and two turns, including Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards, millionaire multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Money, and turf Grade 1 winner Going to Vegas.
DAM: This is the first runner out of the winning mare Ma’am, who got all her victories at a mile or longer, on both dirt and turf. She is a half-sister to Revamp, a highweighted older horse in Greece who won at distances as long as 1 5/16 miles. This is the family of Grade 1-winning juveniles Laragh and Siphonic. Graded stakes winner No More Time comes from this extended family.
OUTLOOK: Reigning leading sire Into Mischief’s stamp is all over this Kentucky Derby, as he is the sire of Resilience, his son Goldencents is the sire of Mystik Dan, and another son, Practical Joke, is the sire of Domestic Product. With Into Mischief siring multiple top-level horses at the classic distance, and both of these sons siring Grade/Group 1 winners around two turns, the entire line must be considered a threat.

STRENGTHS: Catching Freedom appears to be making a steady, reliable progression with each start. The ascending pattern of Beyer Speed Figures he owns is topped by the 97 he earned for his win in the Louisiana Derby and ranks as one of the best last-race Beyers in the Kentucky Derby. Earlier in the season he won his first prep, the Smarty Jones, over Just Steel, who came back to run second in the Arkansas Derby, and Informed Patriot, who has since earned a Preakness berth for a recent stakes win at Oaklawn. Catching Freedom’s record of winning at multiple tracks is admirable, and the list includes Churchill Downs. As for his final prep, it came at 1 3/16 miles compared to the 1 1/8 miles of most of his rivals.
WEAKNESSES: He’s a closer, and such a running style can be a bit of a trick. It makes him dependent on pace, and he will need some honest fractions up front to fuel his late run. Beyond that, he might need the Red Sea to part for him. There will be a good deal of traffic to negotiate in the anticipated 20-horse field. Catching Freedom also has not yet been tested at the Grade 1 level.
BETTING VALUE: Excellent. He’s a candidate to win and while he was favored in the first three starts of his career, he might be in the 8-1 or higher range Saturday as there figures to be a good deal of focus on Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young.

SIRE: Florida Derby and Donn Handicap winner Constitution, by fellow classic sire Tapit, is best known as the sire of four-time Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law, who won the pandemic-adjusted 2020 Belmont Stakes at nine furlongs, but then won the Travers Stakes and was second in the Kentucky Derby, both at 10 furlongs. Constitution’s ability to produce stamina also is evidenced in Chile, where he is a successful shuttle sire. His top runners there include Horse of the Year Breakpoint, a Group 1 winner at distances as long as 12 furlongs before coming to the United States to win the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano at 1 3/4 miles; and champion Niquense, also a winner at 12 furlongs.
DAM: Catch My Drift, also by a classic sire, won the Summer Colony Stakes at Saratoga and was third in the Grade 1 Beldame Stakes at Belmont, both at nine furlongs. She is the dam of three winners from as many starters, with Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom joined by Bishops Bay, a Grade 3 runner-up in both the Ohio Derby and Peter Pan last year; and Strava, who was third in the Ellis Park Derby.
OUTLOOK: For middle to route two-turn distances, it’s nigh impossible to poke holes in Catching Freedom’s pedigree.

STRENGTHS: He’s a runner with much upside. He’s made just three starts and last time moved from an allowance race to a Grade 1, and stretched out from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles while finishing second to champion Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Catalytic had an awkward start as he hit the gate before moving into a forward position. He has reason to move forward Saturday in his second route attempt, and the natural speed he possesses could help keep him up out of trouble in the large field. His trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr., and his jockey, Jose Ortiz, recently teamed to win the $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap with Skippylongstocking.
WEAKNESSES: He’s got a lot of lengths to make up on Fierceness. Catalytic was 13 1/2 lengths back in second and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 compared to the champ’s 110. The Kentucky Derby marks Catalytic’s first big road trip, as he’s yet to race outside of Florida. He also will be giving up experience to most of his rivals having made just three starts.
BETTING VALUE: He was 29-1 in the Florida Derby, and his speed put him in a position to outrun those odds. He figures to be about the same price and might be worth a flyer as he has reasons to move forward. He also exits the race expected to produce the favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

SIRE: This is the first crop for Catalina Cruiser, a son of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Catalina Cruiser was best around one turn, with multiple Grade 2 wins at seven furlongs. He has not yet sired a stakes winner, with Catalytic the best of his three stakes-placed runners.
DAM: One Show Only is the dam of two winners from four starters, with Catalytic joined by Reunion Tour, a winner at six furlongs. The first two dams are very light on black type, but Catalytic’s third dam is She’s a Winner, dam of classic-placed Grade 1 winner Bluegrass Cat and three other long-winded stakes winners. This is a deep extended family, with names on the page including champion and Travers Stakes winner Rhythm, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, turf Grade 1 winner Imagining, and additional Grade 1 winners Callback, Chocolate Gelato, and Girolamo.
OUTLOOK: Catalytic’s immediate family trends toward shorter distances and is light on black type, but the genetic potential is there if he can tap into deeper generations.

STRENGTHS: Just Steel is the most experienced horses (11 starts) in the Kentucky Derby, and one of the fastest. His last-out 95 Beyer Speed Figure is comparable to all but Fierceness. When ground loss is considered, Just Steel is as fast or faster than every other rival. He was wide throughout when second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. The effort ranks among the top performances by a 2024 Derby candidate. The challenge is to run two races alike. Just Steel is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner whose 1999 winner had a similar pattern. The historical example is worth recall. Charismatic had never earned a noteworthy figure until he improved 14 points to win the Lexington Stakes in his 14th start. He reproduced the effort winning the Derby and Preakness. Similarly, Lukas-trained Just Steel reached top form in his 11th start. Just Steel has a pressing/stalking style that could lead to a good trip behind the speed and in front of the closers, contingent on avoiding another wide trip.
WEAKNESSES: Just Steel has finished second to Derby candidates Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom. Based on simple headto-head comparison, those runners are better. Just Steel’s talented young jockey Keith Asmussen is riding in his first Kentucky Derby. That is not really a weakness, merely a fact.
BETTING VALUE: Even though Just Steel is among the fastest in the field, fresh off a career-best, he has never won a graded stakes and may enter under the radar. Fair value is 15-1, anything higher is icing on the cake. Just Steel is a live longshot.

SIRE: Justify, winner of the 2018 Triple Crown, has had a stellar start to his stud career, with 28 stakes winners worldwide from his first two crops through April 21. Those include Eclipse Award champion Just F Y I, a prominent candidate for the Kentucky Oaks; European champions City of Troy and Opera Singer; and Australian champion Learning to Fly. Justify, who also is represented in this Kentucky Derby class by Just a Touch, has inherited the versatility of his own sire, multiple Grade 1 winner Scat Daddy.
DAM: Irish Lights, who won the Australian 1000 Guineas, is the dam of five winners from as many starters. Those include Omei Sword, a Group 2 winner in Australia at distances as long as six furlongs; and Lipizzaner, a stakes winner in England at up to six furlongs. This is the extended family of champion Timber Country, winner of the 1995 Preakness Stakes after finishing third in the Derby, and 1996 Derby third-place finisher Prince of Thieves.
OUTLOOK: The major turf influences in Just Steel’s family are not a concern – turf-type horses often adapt well to Churchill’s dirt, as this colt showed winning the Ed Brown Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs last November. Of a bigger concern are the speed influences in the first generations of Just Steel’s family, which he’ll have to outrun at 1 1/4 miles.

STRENGTHS: Honor Marie took a huge step forward in the Louisiana Derby, taking advantage of a hot pace and a good closer’s trip to rally behind Catching Freedom. It was a vastly improved run from his seasonal debut, where he might have been short off the layoff and likely didn’t care for the sloppy track. He seemingly bounced out of the race in fine fettle, recording a bullet five-eighths on April 25 at Churchill. A Grade 2 winner at Churchill last year, he obviously likes the racetrack. Distance shouldn’t be a problem as he ran on at the end of the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby and is out of a half-sister to St. Leger (1 13/16 miles) winner Rule of Law. There should be another honest pace for him to attack in the Derby. He might have the right running style.
WEAKNESSES: While his running style would be a plus given a fast pace, it also puts him at the mercy of trip. In a full field of 20, Honor Marie must avoid being hung too wide and must not lose valuable momentum by being stuck in traffic. Although he didn’t run poorly when beaten in both sloppy track starts, it appears he’s more effective over fast footing. He could be vulnerable if the weather doesn’t cooperate. He’s been beaten by some of these already, and likely needs another step forward if he is to grab the brass ring.
BETTING VALUE: He appears to be getting better, might receive another favorable setup, and is a proven commodity on this racetrack. Odds of 20-1 sound about right on a horse with some nice credentials.

SIRE: Honor Code, by powerful stamina influence A.P. Indy, was the Eclipse Award champion older horse in 2015, with Grade 1 wins in the Metropolitan Handicap and Whitney. Now standing in Japan, he is the sire of major Grade 1 route winners, including Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Max Player, Coaching Club American Oaks winner Maracuja, and Santa Anita Derby winner Honor A. P.
DAM: Dame Marie, who was Grade 2-placed routing on the Churchill Downs turf, has produced three winners from as many runners, including Abarta, who also was Grade 2-placed going two turns on turf. Honor Marie is, of course, a two-turn performer on the Churchill dirt. Out of English stakes winner Crystal Crossing, Dame Marie is a half-sister to Rule of Law, winner of the English St. Leger and runner-up in the Epsom Derby.
OUTLOOK: Prominent American classic sires appear in the early generations of this pedigree, which has plenty of two-turn international influences as well. Honor Marie, who has already shown an affinity for Churchill, has an intriguing blend of positive factors.

STRENGTHS: Hasn’t run a poor race in three career starts, improving with each try in terms of Beyers. Given the fact he’s had only three career starts, he could well still be on the improve. A big reason for his success is his tactical speed, as he’s been able to work out forward stalking trips, and he’s parlayed those setups into a win and two runner-up efforts in his Derby preps. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux are Kentucky Derby winners, thanks to Mandaloun’s runner-up finish to the subsequently disqualified Medina Spirit. This colt is by Triple Crown winner Justify.
WEAKNESSES: His lack of experience is an obvious concern, as he comes into this test off only three starts, and this will be only his third start against winners. He does have speed but he lacked finishing ability in his last pair, including his latest, when he blew a lead in the stretch after making a run to gain command. That could certainly be an issue as he goes farther than he ever has.
BETTING VALUE: Figures to be around fifth or sixth choice in the betting but also could be as low as 8-1, as he’s always been bet and his record and connections figure to attract some attention. But his lack of experience is a decided knock, and his running style could work against him, making him less attractive at any kind of short price.

SIRE: Justify, winner of the 2018 Triple Crown, has had a stellar start to his stud career, with 28 stakes winners worldwide from his first two crops through April 21. Those include Eclipse Award champion Just F Y I, a prominent candidate for the Kentucky Oaks; European champions City of Troy and Opera Singer; and Australian champion Learning to Fly. Justify, who also is represented in this Kentucky Derby class by Just Steel, has inherited the versatility of his own sire, multiple Grade 1 winner Scat Daddy. That late stallion not only sired a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/2 miles on dirt in Justify, he sired the likes of crack turf sprinter Lady Aurelia, a European champion. Justify’s Grade 1 winners last year included everything from a dirt sprinter in Arabian Lion to a turf router in Aspen Grove.
DAM: Touching Beauty won the Grade 3 Comely Stakes at a mile. She is the dam of five winners from six starters; alongside Just a Touch, Grade 1-placed at 1 1/8 miles, three of her other four winners have won at a mile or longer. Her second dam, Victory Road, was a stakes winner at a mile. She produced stakes winning sprinter Noisy Feet, but also Tritap, an allowance winner at 1 3/16 miles and Grade 2-placed around two turns. Tritap was a full brother to Touching Beauty.
OUTLOOK: Of Triple Crown winner Justify’s two chances in this year’s Derby, Just a Touch may have the female family that adds the most two-turn ability to the equation.

STRENGTHS: Very game win last time out in the Lexington, and he posted the best Beyer of his short career in the front-running score. That was his third win in four starts, and though he is light on experience he has already shown that he’s versatile enough to lead or rate, which is an important consideration when trying to work out a trip in this bulky field. The 94 Beyer he posted in his last win gives him credibility against this group, and he certainly has room to take another step forward in his fifth career start for trainer Brad Cox.
WEAKNESSES: The strength of the Lexington field is in question, and he was all out to win. He had to outrun other speed types to make the lead but he was loose on the lead, and that was a very favorable trip for most of the meet at Keeneland. Further, a looseon- the-lead trip is not a likely scenario for him in the Kentucky Derby. He did rate off the pace to win with a late run in the Battaglia two back, but that was another modest field. He’s only had four career starts, and this is by far the best field he’s ever met.
BETTING VALUE: Should be around 20-1 or so, but he does seem more likely to regress than to move forward off those last couple of figures, which were earned with the aid of very good trips. While the odds should be right, it does seem there are others in the same price range who are more intriguing.

SIRE: Nyquist, from the first crop of champion juvenile Uncle Mo, helped his sire to the leading freshman stallion title in 2015, then followed in his footsteps by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to lock up an Eclipse Award. Nyquist went on to win the 2016 Kentucky Derby – becoming the first of two classic winners for Uncle Mo, who also sired 2022 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal. Nyquist continued to follow his sire by claiming the 2020 freshman title. Nyquist has continued to sire prominent route winners on dirt. He was represented last year by Randomized, winner of the Grade 1 Alabama at 1 1/4 miles, and Slow Down Andy, winner of the Grade 1 Awesome Again at 1 1/8 miles.
DAM: Glittering Jewel raced in Europe for the first part of her career and got her only win at 1 3/16 miles on synthetic. Encino is the first runner out of the mare, who is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Preakness winner Bernardini is crafting a legacy as a stellar broodmare sire, with more than 100 stakes winners out of his daughters already. Those include Grade 1 Summer Stakes winner Gretzky the Great, by Nyquist, Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress, and Saudi Cup winner Emblem Road.
OUTLOOK: Encino is from a classic-type dirt pedigree and proved he could handle that surface with his most recent win in the Grade 3 Lexington.

STRENGTHS: Received an automatic berth by prevailing in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Unbeaten in two starts, he’s shown speed and professionalism in both races. He had no issues with a full field when downing 15 other first-time starters, so he won’t be out of place in a full Kentucky Derby starting gate. His sire was an excellent dirt runner in Japan, winning Grade 1 races at distances between one mile and 1 1/4 miles. His pedigree is geared to dirt racing.
WEAKNESSES: This is a huge step up in class, as he just lasted in a gate-to-wire gambit going 1 1/8 miles at Nakayama. He has shown speed in both of his races, but it is likely that he’ll face a much faster pace than what he’s accustomed to seeing. He hasn’t received any kickback in his races, and that could affect him adversely if he doesn’t get to the lead, or in the clear. He is very light on experience as an unraced juvenile with only two starts on his page.
BETTING VALUE: He appears to be a talented colt but doesn’t seem as strong as fellow Japanese entrant Forever Young, not to mention the best of the American contenders. Odds of 50-1 seem reasonable on a colt who will face his toughest test to date.

SIRE: In six seasons of racing, the hard-knocking Copano Rickey twice won the Grade 1 February Stakes, one of Japan’s top dirt races, at about eight furlongs, and was named Japan’s champion dirt horse. He did win at distances as long as 1 1/4 miles. From his first three crops, his top runner is Grade 3-placed Arms Reign. Copano Rickey is by fellow February Stakes winner and dirt champion Gold Allure, in turn a son of American dual classic winner Sunday Silence, who became a breed-shaping sire in Japan.
DAM: T O Rachel won at distances as long as seven furlongs. She has produced four winners from as many starters, and most have emulated her. With the exception of T O Password, who has won his two starts at about nine furlongs, none of the other three have won beyond 7 1/2 furlongs. Fukuryu Stakes winner T O Password is the first stakes horse under his first three dams.
OUTLOOK: While Copano Rickey adds some distance ability on dirt to this pedigree, T O Password has outrun the seeming distance limitations from his female family to date and is stepping far up in class.

STRENGTHS: Forever Young looks like the strongest Japanese import to ever race in the Derby. He bypassed a seemingly easier path in Japan by campaigning internationally. He’s versatile, winning from just off the pace in his debut at Kawasaki and in the U.A.E. Derby, or from well off the lead, as at Monbetsu and in the Saudi Derby. I don’t think he cared for that Saudi racetrack but was game to kick down a fleet and loose leader. He was expected to win in Dubai and did so without having to go to the bottom of the well. He appears to have the proper foundation for this race. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi tasted success in the United States when he saddled Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine to win Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021.
WEAKNESSES: Forever Young wore a hood in the U.A.E. Derby, as he doesn’t seem to appreciate kickback. This pace should be strong, and he might be forced to endure dirt in his face while attempting to rally. Forever Young received a 107 Timeform Rating in Dubai. Derma Sotogake earned a 109 winning that race before placing sixth in last year’s Kentucky Derby. (Note there are no Beyers for international races.) The U.A.E. Derby has not been a key prep. Forever Young faces his strongest class test.
BETTING VALUE: Forever Young will take money, based on his unblemished record and his interesting backstory. He is certainly talented but will face a tough test. Odds between 8-1 and 12-1 seem reasonable.

SIRE: Real Steel is a son of Japanese Triple Crown winner and leading sire Deep Impact, in turn by American dual classic winner Sunday Silence, who became a breed-shaping sire in Japan. Real Steel’s biggest win came in the Group 1 Dubai Turf in 2016. He won two graded stakes and placed in several prominent Grade 1 events in Japan. From his first two crops of racing age, Forever Young is his most prominent of three stakes winners.
DAM: Forever Young is one of three winners from four starters out of Forever Darling, winner of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes. His victory in the 1 3/16-mile U.A.E. Derby was the longest-distance win to date by one of her foals. Second dam Darling My Darling was multiple Grade 1-placed around one turn as a juvenile. Her stakes wins included the Doubledogdare at 1 1/16 miles. Three of her daughters are stakes producers, including Grade 1-winning juvenile Heavenly Love. That mare’s first foal is Sierra Leone, winner of the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. This is the family of Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy, Eclipse Award champion Indian Blessing, and Grade 1 winners Cat’s Cradle and Roamin Rachel.
OUTLOOK: From an active female family that has another clear Derby contender, Forever Young has stronger credentials, on paper and on the track, than previous international hopefuls. While Real Steel did his best work on turf, adding that surface to the genetic mix is not a bad thing at Churchill. A number of horses in this female family performed well on wet tracks.

STRENGTHS: Track Phantom wintered at Fair Grounds, where he won two of the track’s four preps for the Kentucky Derby. He drew wide posts in every race, and his speed served him well as he got up and over each time to secure his customary spot on the lead. In the Risen Star, he was edged late by Sierra Leone, who came back to win the Blue Grass and establish himself as a top choice for the Derby. Track Phantom’s final prep was a fourth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby and following the race trainer Steve Asmussen said he planned to add blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. Track Phantom will be returning to a surface over which he is proven, as he won a maiden special weight route in November at Churchill. He also debuted at the track and was third in a maiden race to Stronghold, eventual winner of the Santa Anita Derby, and Resilience, who would go on to win the Wood Memorial.
WEAKNESSES: He’s done his best work on the front end, but figures to face more company on the lead than ever in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. A duel up front would likely be a race shape that favors an off-the-pace runner. Track Phantom also must answer the distance question as he’s a horse who has not yet won beyond 1 1/16 miles. This will be his first start in a Grade 1.
BETTING VALUE: He was the favorite last out in the Louisiana Derby, but figures to go off at odds of better than 15-1 here, and that’s appealing for a runner whose Beyer Speed Figures stack up favorably against the top contenders. He’s also a consistent sort who has never finished worse than fourth.

SIRE: Quality Road was brilliant enough to score a dazzling win in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap at a one-turn mile, and tough enough to carry himself two turns, with additional Grade 1 triumphs in the Florida Derby, Donn Handicap, and Woodward among his seven graded stakes scores. The son of classic sire Elusive Quality has become a perennial leading sire. His standouts include Kentucky Oaks winner and Eclipse Award champion Abel Tasman; National Treasure, who gave him his first Triple Crown race win in last year’s Preakness; Eclipse champion juveniles Caledonia Road and Corniche, both Breeders’ Cup winners; and City of Light, whose major wins included the BC Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup.
DAM: Miss Sunset won 10 of 20 starts, with nine stakes wins highlighted by the Grade 2 Raven Run sprinting at Keeneland. Her first two foals are winners, with Track Phantom joining O’Conner Sunset, who has scored all his wins in sprints despite being by classic sire Curlin. Miss Sunset’s dam, Tuscan Sunset, scored all her wins at 4 1/2 furlongs.
OUTLOOK: Track Phantom, despite being by a classic sire, has already outrun most of his female family distance-wise, and that may be cause for concern going longer.

STRENGTHS: West Saratoga won the Grade 3 Iroquois over the Churchill Downs main track as a 2-year-old with a strong late run into a fast pace. When he won his maiden in his prior start, which was his first attempt over a route distance, he did so while showing speed. That versatility can serve him well in a race like the Derby, where trips are of utmost importance. He hit the board in his two most recent starts when stretched back out in distance and earned the top Beyer of his career in his final Derby prep.
WEAKNESSES: He is too slow to be considered a serious contender in the Derby, with a career-best Beyer of 85. While that top Beyer did come in his most recent start, it was earned over a synthetic surface, and he lost ground in the stretch of that race while going the longest distance of his career. Having a top dirt Beyer of 81 leaves him with plenty to find when stepping into the gate with the best colts of his generation.
BETTING VALUE: He will be a longshot at post time and deserves to be based on his overall form.

SIRE: Exaggerator, by Curlin, was a multiple Grade 1 winner of the 2016 Santa Anita Derby, Preakness, and Haskell Invitational, and was second in the Kentucky Derby. His best runner is graded stakes-winning millionaire Skippylongstocking, who was third in the 2022 Belmont Stakes. Curlin is developing a reputation as a sire of sires that can pass on his own stamina. Two of his sons have sired first-crop Kentucky Derby winners – Keen Ice with Rich Strike in 2022, and Good Magic with Mage in 2023.
DAM: Unraced Mo Traffic, by classic sire Uncle Mo, is the dam of two winners, with the other being a sprinter. In a family light on black type in the immediate generations, West Saratoga’s granddam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Alcibiades winner Wickedly Perfect.
OUTLOOK: West Saratoga’s biggest asset will be his affinity for Churchill Downs – particularly if it turns up wet. The colt is already a graded stakes winner locally. Exaggerator, from a stamina-laden sireline, was known for his multiple Grade 1 wins on wet tracks, and West Saratoga would figure to move up if it rains Derby weekend.

STRENGTHS: Endlessly has won 5 of 6 starts, all on turf and synthetic. He and Forever Young are the only Derby candidates with five wins. Beyond the fact Endlessly has won more than his fair share, his wins were in good races – four stakes, including three Grade 3s. The challenge facing Endlessly is that he has never raced on dirt. Of course, a first-time-dirt Derby win would not be unprecedented. Animal Kingdom had never raced on dirt prior to winning the 2011 Derby. Furthermore, the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks that Endlessly won by four lengths last out is the same race that produced 2022 Derby winner Rich Strike and 2023 Derby runner-up Two Phil’s.
WEAKNESSES: Endlessly has worked on dirt more than 30 times and given no indication he would benefit from a switch to dirt in the afternoon. He is a top horse on turf and synthetic (two stakes wins on each surface), but there is a reason he has never raced on dirt. It is because he trains on dirt as if he is merely average.
BETTING VALUE: Given that Endlessly seemingly possesses only modest ability on dirt, it is difficult to build a case for him to win a dirt race the magnitude of the Kentucky Derby. If he runs in the Derby, he is up against it. Dirt is not his surface. At any price, Endlessly is a pass in the Kentucky Derby.

SIRE: Oscar Performance, by turf champion and leading sire Kitten’s Joy, won seven graded stakes, all on turf. Those wins include Grade 1 triumphs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Belmont Derby, Secretariat Stakes at 1 1/4 miles, and the Woodbine Mile. He has been a bit more versatile than his sire in terms of his progeny’s success on different surfaces. While he has sired several turf and synthetic stakes performers, including Endlessly and Andthewinneris, he also is the sire of Grade 2-winning dirt sprinter Red Carpet Ready; Tumbarumba, a graded winner at a mile on dirt; and dirt stakes winner Oscar Eclipse.
DAM: This unraced mare is the dam of two winners from five starters, with Endlessly joined by Dream Trip, a winner at a mile on turf. Second dam Society Dream, a turf stakes performer, also is the second dam of Coffee Clique, a Grade 1 winner on turf, and Admission Office, a graded stakes winner on turf.
OUTLOOK: Horses with some turf breeding tend to perform well at Churchill Downs, and Oscar Performance has shown an ability to sire a classy dirt horse. However, trainer Michael McCarthy has expressed a preference to remain on turf with Endlessly, though he ended up in the Derby rather than the Grade 2 American Turf on the undercard.

STRENGTHS: Overcame some pretty slow fractions to win the Tampa Bay Derby from off the pace in a very game effort. He also ran well in defeat in the Holy Bull, when he was forced to rally into tepid splits. He was flattered when third-place finisher Fierceness came out of that race to win the Florida Derby by 13 1/2 lengths, posting a 110 Beyer. He has the ability to get early position but also has a good closing kick, and versatility is an important asset to have in this race.

WEAKNESSES: The Beyers he’s posted thus far are not good enough to win this race, or frankly most any other Grade 1 race. He does have the tactical speed to work out a forward trip but at this extended distance he could have trouble finishing if he’s close up to a quick, contested pace. Sire Practical Joke was best at one turn, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of getting the distance, and he’ll come into this race off a two-month respite. He is coming off the Tampa Bay Derby win, but that was not the deepest of fields and he was all out to get up in time.

BETTING VALUE: Figures to be better than 20-1, but he has lots of upside as a closer coming off less-than-ideal pace scenarios and now potentially landing in a very good spot in terms of race flow. I’m using him on top as an “A” and in all slots underneath.

SIRE: Practical Joke, by Into Mischief, was a standout around one turn, with Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful, Champagne, and H. Allen Jerkens Memorial. He could stretch his abilities somewhat at a high level, with third-place finishes around two turns in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Haskell Invitational, and other creditable efforts. A shuttle stallion to Chile, he is the sire of cham­pions El Oriente, Richi, and Soqui in that country. All have won at a mile or longer, with Berberisca and Richi winning at 1 1/4 miles. In the United States, Practical Joke’s accomplishments are more eclectic. He is, unsurprisingly, the sire of graded stakes-winning millionaire sprinters Skelly and Tejano Twist, and Chocolate Gelato, winner of the Grade 1 Frizette at a one-turn mile. He also is the sire of horses like Practical Move, whose multiple graded wins around two turns on dirt included the Santa Anita Derby, and Wit, a graded stakes-winning dirt sprinter who has run well going longer on turf, including a Grade 1 placing at nine furlongs.

DAM: Unraced Goods and Services is the dam of two winners from as many starters. She is out of stakes winner Indian Legend, making her a half-sister to stakes winner Kenda. Indian Legend is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Cherokee Queen.

OUTLOOK: Practical Joke is showing he can sire a two-turn horse. His best asset on the racetrack was one that couldn’t be seen on paper – his toughness. His offspring will need that to go the Derby distance.

STRENGTHS: Grand Mo the First has hit the board in all six career starts while showing enough versatility to handle dirt, turf, and synthetic surfaces at six different distances. He has only routed on dirt twice in his career, and they are the two fastest races he has run. His Beyer Speed Figures are trending the right way, with consecutive Beyer tops in his final two prep races, and he has the kind of tactical speed that can have him in the right position as the large Derby field heads to the first turn.

WEAKNESSES: He has not won a race since taking the first two starts of his career in short sprints, and they were both on a synthetic surface. His competitive effort two starts back came in one of the slowest Derby preps, and he came up short that day despite racing close to a moderate pace. When confronted with a top 3-year-old in the Grade 1 Florida Derby he was well beaten despite earning a new Beyer top.

BETTING VALUE: As one of the least accomplished colts in the field he is going to have to improve by several lengths just to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby, and his odds at post time are likely to reflect that.

SIRE: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and divisional Eclipse Award champion Uncle Mo in his stellar first crop sired 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist – the previous year’s Juvenile winner and champion – and added another classic winner in 2022 Belmont Stakes victor Mo Donegal. Uncle Mo has been a versatile sire. While the majority of his 14 career Grade 1 winners to date have come around two turns, he also is the sire of runners such as standout turf sprinter Golden Pal.

DAM: Lilies So Fair, who won at distances as long as a mile, is the dam of six winners from as many starters. Grand Mo the First is her first stakes horse. From her other five runners, all but one have won at a mile or longer. Lilies So Fair is out of stakes-winning sprinter Wildwood Flower, also dam of Florida Derby winner Materiality and Grade 2 Gazelle winner My Miss Sophia, second in the Kentucky Oaks. My Miss Sophia also was Grade 1-placed on turf and produced turf Grade 1 winner Annapolis. Lilies So Fair is a half-sister to Wildwood Rose, dam of Grade 1 Ashland winner and current Kentucky Oaks candidate Leslie’s Rose. This is the extended family of Grade 1 Travers winner Afleet Express and Grade 1 Alabama winner Embellish the Lace.

OUTLOOK: Derby longshot Grand Mo the First has a fine pedi­gree for this task. He is by a young classic sire and from a classy two-turn family whose dashes of turf class can only benefit him. 

STRENGTHS: Fierceness will be the first Kentucky Derby starter in nearly a decade to enter off a 110 Beyer Speed Figure (Materiality entered off the same fig in 2015; he finished sixth). Fierceness earned his fig in a Florida Derby romp, which was his second Grade 1 blowout. He earned a 105 in the Breeders’ Cup Juve­nile last November. The fastest 2-year-old last year, Fierceness is the fastest 3-year-old this year. Derby favorites with the highest last-start figure are 4 for 8 since 2000 (excluding the 2020 Derby in September). In addition to fast times and corresponding figures, Fierceness employs an up-front style that theoretically allows him to control his own destiny. A versatile colt who does not require the lead, he will be forwardly placed. Assuming a clean start, traffic will not likely be an issue.

WEAKNESSES: Fierceness has never put together successive top races. Between his smashing debut and BC Juvenile romp was an odds-on seventh in the Grade 1 Champagne. Prior to his Florida Derby romp, he finished a flat third as the odds-on favorite in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. In both defeats, Fierceness was foiled by adver­sity. He broke poorly in the Champagne; he was roughed up at the start of the Holy Bull. Although some bettors shy from unreliabil­ity, other bettors will accept the risk of misfire in exchange for a wager on the fastest horse in the field.

BETTING VALUE: Fierceness would offer value at 3-1. High-fig Grade 1 winners rarely start that high. Of course, few race 1 1/4 miles in a 20-horse field. Bottom line: Fierceness is worth backing at 3-1. Anything less is an underlay.

SIRE: City of Light, by classic sire Quality Road, was never off the board. He had multiple Grade 1 wins at seven furlongs, took the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, was a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles – including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup – and was Grade 1-placed at 1 1/4 miles. Fierceness, from the second crop of City of Light, is the first Grade 1 winner around two turns on dirt for the stallion, whose accomplishments have been eclectic. He is represented by the good fillies Mimi Kakushi, winner of the Group 3 U.A.E. Oaks, and Chop Chop, Grade 1-placed around two turns on dirt, but also a stakes winner going a mile on both turf and synthetic.

DAM: Fierceness is the first starter for Nonna Bella, who scored her two wins around one turn. She is out of Nonna Mia, third in the Grade 1 Frizette around one turn at Belmont. Nonna Mia, a half-sister to graded stakes winner Cairo Prince, produced Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Outwork and turf stakes winner Nonna’s Boy.

OUTLOOK: City of Light followed in the mold of his sire, Qual­ity Road, by showing brilliance he could stretch two turns. If his own progeny, including Fierceness, who resembles his sire, follow in that mold, they’ll be in good stead.

STRENGTHS: Extremely consistent colt has never been worse than second in his six starts to date, including two straight wins in graded stakes company. He comes off a game score in the Santa Anita Derby, overcoming traffic and staving off a rival late. His tactical speed has served him well, as he’s benefited from favor­able trips more times than not, and it should mean he’s well spot­ted from the start once again in the Derby. He has seen his Beyers steadily rise since the start of his career, and he has room to take a step forward in his third start off the layoff.

WEAKNESSES: He took full advantage of a perfect trip and a very favorable race flow in the Santa Anita Derby, and even with that cozy setup he didn’t post a Beyer that’s even close to good enough to get him on the board in the Derby. Two back, he was a relatively easy winner at 6-5 in the Sunland Derby, but that was hardly a salty group and another race that produced a modest figure. He has shown he can rate, but he has not proven he can take well back off the leaders and make a bid. He’ll likely be close to a quick, contested early pace.

BETTING VALUE: Figures to be 30-1 or so due to his relatively light Beyers, and he may be worth using underneath if he’s in the vicinity of that price since he is likely to sit a favorable trip. But with­out a major step forward, he’s unlikely to be a contender to win this.

SIRE: Ghostzapper is by Awesome Again, sire of a pair of Ameri­can classic winners in Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow and Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston. Ghostzapper followed in his sire’s footsteps by winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic and also has followed him as a source of stamina. To be fair, Ghostzapper has fashioned an eclectic career, with runners also including Eclipse Award champion female sprinters Goodnight Olive and Judy the Beauty, and a number of top-level turf runners. But he also is the sire of Canadian classic winner and champion Shaman Ghost, a multiple Grade 1 winner around two turns on dirt; fellow Queen’s Plate winners and Canadian champions Holy Helena and Moira; and Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide.

DAM: Spectator won the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes and was third in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante as a juvenile. The following spring, she was second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks to eventual champion Midnight Bisou. Stronghold is the only foal out of Specta­tor, who died from foaling complications. The second dam, Diva’s Tribute, produced five winners from six foals, including stakes-placed sprinter Policy.

OUTLOOK: Stronghold’s pedigree is a fairly even blend of speed and stamina.

STRENGTHS: While Resilience has only won twice from six starts, his form has been trending forward with each race for a Hall of Fame trainer. The Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds in Febru­ary was one of the stronger Derby preps this year, and this colt more than held his own in that race despite it being his first start out of the maiden ranks. Bill Mott added blinkers for the Grade 2 Wood Memorial last month, and Resilience traveled strongly throughout that race before winning convincingly in a career-best effort. He has a handy running style and can pull the right trip in the Derby, regardless of how the pace plays out.

WEAKNESSES: Despite improving in his final two starts lead­ing to the Derby, he is still a little slow coming into the race with a Beyer top of 90. As competitive as he was in the Risen Star, he still wasn’t quite good enough to win that race after getting into conten­tion, and he defeated a subpar field in his final prep without improv­ing his figure. He also was drifting out late in the Wood Memorial, suggesting that the distance might have been getting to him.

BETTING VALUE: He seems likely to get overlooked a bit in the wagering and should offer fair value, particularly for a well-bred colt who is improving at the right time.

SIRE: Five-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief is eyeing another historic accomplishment. Authentic’s 2020 Kentucky Derby victory, followed by Mandaloun’s promotion by disqualifica­tion in 2021, made him the first stallion to ever sire back-to-back Derby winners. Another victory will tie him for the most wins in the classic all-time. Into Mischief sired back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winners and divisional Eclipse champions in Covfefe (2019) and Gamine (2020), and Authentic was considered a breakthrough horse. However, Into Mischief had been knocking at the door in the classics prior to that. Audible won the 2018 Florida Derby before finishing third to champions Justify and Good Magic in the Kentucky Derby. Into Mischief is the sire of other two-turn standouts like Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous and recent Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River.

DAM: Meadowsweet won two races on turf, the longest at 1 1/16 miles. She is out of Tranquility Lake, a multiple Grade 1 winner on turf, at distances as long as 1 1/4 miles, but also a Grade 2 winner on dirt. She is the dam of Grade 1-winning middle-distance turf horses After Market and Courageous Cat.

OUTLOOK: The bottom side of Resilience’s pedigree suggests he should be a turf horse, but trainer Bill Mott has opined that all horses are individuals – and anyway, some turf pedigree is not a bad thing on the Churchill Downs dirt. In fact, combining Into Mischief with a female family with plenty of turf resulted in Mandaloun.

STRENGTHS: Society Man enters the Derby with a conspicu­ous pattern of improvement. Maiden winner two starts back, he followed with a surprising 106-1 runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. The race may have been better than it looks. Soci­ety Man was three wide most of the race. Having started only five times, Society Man has room to improve. When the light bulb goes on for a 3-year-old colt in spring, there is no telling how good he can become. Society Man rallies from off the pace, but has enough natu­ral speed to be midpack. He should be positioned in front of late-running lower-odds rivals Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom.

WEAKNESSES: It is uncertain if Society Man is good enough. Based on his career-high Beyer of 87, one could argue Society Man is up against it. Furthermore, his runner-up finish in the Wood was partly the result of lackluster efforts by the top choices. Odds-on favorite Deterministic finished eighth; second favorite Tuscan Sky finished seventh.

BETTING VALUE: It requires a large dose of creativity, or folly, to suggest Society Man might win the Derby. Based on speed and class, he falls short of the mark. But he is an improving horse who will enter off the best race of his career, at odds likely to be high. An upset would be a shock, however, as would an in-the-money finish. But if he continues to progress and catches every break during the race, Society Man could possibly hit the board. That, too, would be a surprise.

SIRE: Good Magic, the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and divisional Eclipse Award champion, won the 2018 Blue Grass to make himself one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. After finishing a strong second to Triple Crown winner Justify, he added another Grade 1 to his résumé in the Haskell Invitational. Good Magic, by two-time Horse of the Year and prominent stamina source Curlin, is the sire of 17 stakes winners to date from his first three crops, led by 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage.

DAM: Wood Memorial runner-up Society Man is the first winner out of his dam, who was multiple stakes-placed at middle distances on turf and synthetic surfaces. They are the only two stakes horses in the first two generations of this pedigree. Granddam Zipper Zapper is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Stormy Regatta, dam of graded stakes-winning turf sprinter Bay Storm.

OUTLOOK: Society Man is by a rapidly rising young sire from a consistent classic sireline. The bit of turf ability on the bottom side of his pedigree won’t hinder him, but he could use more stamina influences on that side.

STRENGTHS: Epic Ride ran better than expected in the Blue Grass, his first start on dirt. That pace was fast, he stayed close to it, and still finished ahead of graded stakes winner Dornoch. Perhaps he’s found a home on dirt after beginning his career on Tapeta at Turfway Park. He has a classy pedigree, albeit one geared slightly to turf, as he’s by Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Blame and from the family of millionaire Honey Ryder. He’s a consistent campaigner, having hit the board in all five starts, and has earned Beyers between 84 and 90 in his last four races.

WEAKNESSES: Epic Ride seems like a colt who likes to run close to the pace. The Kentucky Derby will feature some very fast horses, including Fierceness and Track Phantom, and Epic Ride might struggle attempting to stay with those horses early and late. While his pedigree indicates that 1 1/4 miles is within his wheel­house, his best races thus far have come going shorter. He’ll need to run a career best at a distance that might be slightly out of his reach. Although he ran well in the Blue Grass, he couldn’t get past Just a Touch, who also pushed that solid pace from the outside. He needs a stronger stretch punch.

BETTING VALUE: Epic Ride has lost ground from the stretch call to the wire in both starts longer than one mile. He’ll be an outsider in this Derby, if he gets in, with odds of at least 50-1 likely.

SIRE: Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame has fashioned an eclectic stud career. He can get a Grade 1 winner around two turns on dirt, as illustrated by Coaching Club American Oaks winner Wet Paint, Arkansas Derby winner Nadal, and Santa Margarita winner Fault. However, he’s also responsible for Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley’s Freedom and turf horses that include French Oaks winner Senga.

DAM: Epic Ride is the first foal out of Pick a Time, unplaced in her only start. She is a half-sister to Miss Dracarys, winner of the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at 1 1/16 miles on turf; Up the Ante, a stakes winner at a mile on turf; and stakes-placed dirt sprinter Aristo­cratic. This is the extended family of Dominus, a Grade 2 winner on both dirt and turf, and Grade 1-winning turf mare Honey Ryder. The broodmare sire, champion Gio Ponti, did his best work rout­ing on turf, but his best runner is Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner and champion Drefong.

OUTLOOK: The pedigree is a mixed bag for Epic Ride, a stakes winner on Tapeta who acquitted himself well in the Grade 1 Blue Grass on dirt.

STRENGTHS: He has a proven late kick, and that should come in handy in this field, which seems to feature no shortage of speed. He was only beaten 7 1/2 lengths in the Blue Grass by Sierra Leone, who will be no worse than second choice in this race. He posted the best Beyer Speed Figure of his career in that race, and his figures have generally been trending upward, suggesting he could still be improving for trainer Jeff Engler.

WEAKNESSES: His lone win in 12 career starts came on Gulf­stream’s synthetic strip, and he’s only managed a pair of third-place finishes in seven subsequent starts (and both of those were on synthetic). He was better than 180-1 in the Blue Grass and he was never able to threaten in that race despite a clean trip behind fast early splits. The 87 Beyer he posted in that last one was the best of his career, but it’s still light when compared with the top contenders in this field. His prior two starts also were against stakes company, and he was no threat in either of those two races. This field is obvi­ously better than anything he’s seen to date.

BETTING VALUE: He’ll be among the biggest prices on the board if he gets to start, but it’s hard to envision using him in any slot regardless of his odds. He doesn’t seem to be fast enough to threaten even for a minor share, given a perfect setup or otherwise.

SIRE: Blofeld was a multiple graded stakes winner as a juvenile and went on to add the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap as an older horse routing. He has developed into a top 10 sire in Mary­land, with six stakes winners to his credit – many around one turn. Blofeld is by Quality Road, sire of two-turn horses like Kentucky Oaks winner and champion Abel Tasman and last year’s Preak­ness Stakes winner National Treasure. Quality Road’s son City of Light is the sire of champion juvenile male and likely Derby favor­ite Fierceness.

DAM: Union Way has produced three winners from as many starters – all by Blofeld. Mugatu, whose lone win came at just beyond a mile on synthetic, is preceded by Gamestonks, who won at up to 1 1/16 miles; and Raise the Praise, who didn’t win beyond five furlongs. There isn’t a Grade 1 winner in the family until under Mugatu’s fifth dam, where top-level turf winners Nijinsky’s Secret and Vergennes appear in the pedigree.

OUTLOOK: Blofeld is a rising young sire in a competitive region, and this is a solid, serviceable racehorse’s pedigree. However, Mugatu is taking a massive step up in class, and even getting a small piece of the action would be a major accomplishment for this page.