04/11/2011 9:37AM

Toby's Corner

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Toby's Corner
Adam Coglianese/NYRA
Date Track Race Finish Chart Distance Time BSF Video
4/9/11 AQU Wood Memorial 1st 1 1/8 mile 1:49.80 94 Video
3/5/11 AQU Gotham 3rd 1 1/16 mile 1:44.60 82 Video

Toby's Corner
Owner: Dianne D Cotter
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Record: 6-4-0-2
Best Beyer: 94
Breeder: Dianne D Cotter
Tomlinson Distance Rating: 251

Auction: Withdrawn juvenile (OBS Spring, 2010)
Dosage Profile: 1-4-3-2-0 (10)
Dosage Index: 1.86
Center of Distribution: 0.40

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PROFILE
By Mike Watchmaker

Strengths
Won a premier Kentucky Derby prep on dirt when he won the Wood Memorial. In the process, he handed 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo, at the time the strong future book Kentucky Derby favorite, the first defeat of his career. Moreover, not only did he show the sort of closing kick in the Wood that usually plays well in the Derby, he also showed agility overcoming some traffic, which suggests he has a better chance than most to work out a decent trip in the crowded field at Churchill Downs. The Wood was his best performance to date, and it might not be a coincidence that it was also his first career start with blinkers on. Also, he’s a winner. The Wood was his fourth victory from six career starts.

Weaknesses
Even though the Wood was his best race so far, his winning Beyer Figure of 94 was only fair. While it is true that mediocre Beyers have been the rule in Derby preps this year, the Arkansas and Santa Anita derbies had higher winning Beyers of 98 and 97, respectively. Although he became the first to beat Uncle Mo, there is no guarantee that Uncle Mo really wanted the Wood’s nine-furlong distance, or that he has even progressed from 2 to 3. And though Toby’s Corner is an agile colt whose closing style fits the likely pace scenario, he still must hope for at last a halfway decent trip to show his best because he has no appreciable edge on some of his opponents.

Betting Value
He is one of the prime contenders on paper. Considering that he was a distant second choice in the Wood at 8-1, and how wide open this Derby seems to be, he could offer very good betting value, perhaps going off around 10-1. A must-use in all wagers.


PEDIGREE ANALYSIS
By Dan Illman

Sire:
Bellamy Road rolled into Churchill Downs as the 5-2 favorite for the 2005 Kentucky Derby after a scintillating 17 1/2 length win in the nine-furlong, Grade 1 Wood Memorial with a 120 Beyer Speed Figure. He finished seventh in the Derby after making a mid-race bid. Bellamy Road won at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles.
From his first crop of foals (3-year-olds of 2011), Bellamy Road has also sired Grade 2 winner Position Limit (Adirondack Stakes, 6 1/2 furlongs).

Dam:
Toby's Corner is a half-brother to Bushmill's Best, the winner of the $100,000 OBS Championship Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.
The dam's only win came going six furlongs at Calder.

Outlook:
Toby's Corner's win provided a boost to the young stud career of Bellamy Road. From a pedigree standpoint, it's not surprising that he handled nine furlongs, but the final eighth of a mile could prove a stern challenge at Churchill Downs.


THE WIZARD'S PACE ANALYSIS:
The addition of blinkers in the Wood Memorial helped him relax beautifully off the pace and unleash a powerful stretch kick. Those tactics will be used again, with him likely to be even farther back early, given the likelihood of a rapid early tempo.

The Wizard's Kentucky Derby Stakes Package
Detailed analysis for each horse, available on Thursday, May 5.