05/25/2014 9:55AM

Litfin's Rainbow Six analysis


With $6 million in dead money waiting, expect another $12 million or so to join the pool in the must-pay Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park. After takeout, approximately $15 million will be sent back through the cashier’s window. It’s basically a positive-expectation National Pick Six, where more money will be returned to bettors than they put in Monday.

Here are my whittled contenders as of Sunday morning:

5th race: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12

6th race: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11

7th race: 8, 12, 13

8th race: 4, 5, 11

9th race: 3, 7, 9, 12

10th race: 5, 6, 7, 12

A “caveman” ticket is 8x7x3x3x4x4 = 8,064 combos = $1,612.80 at 20 cents a pop.

A brief overview, followed by some basic strategy to make things a bit more economical:

5th race: No one has approached the Beyer Speed Figure par; two horses get significant trainer changes, and three try turf for the first time. Just about anything goes.

6th race: Again, no one other than 0-for-10 Quinnkat has been in the same area code as the Beyer par, and that filly has been away since bleeding through Lasix on March 9.

7th race: Trying to slip by with a trio that faced tougher opponents recently. Pay close attention to late scratches, as also-eligible Lay It Down is 3 for 3 over the local turf course and becomes a necessary add-in (at least for me) if drawn in.

8th race: Hard to see past the three obvious contenders in this low-grade beaten claimer.

9th race: Not trying to separate the top four, who all have turf Beyer tops of 81 to 84. Again, be prepared to adjust pending scratches, as also-eligible Starship Avenger ran the field’s top turf number this year in his penultimate start.

10th race: For those who make it this far, the cash-out leg is an inscrutable full gate of maiden claimers on turf and may wind up being a case of “In Ramsey-Maker We Trust.”

In order to cut costs, we’ll construct one main ticket using all the “A” horses, and three others that plug in the “B” horses in three races.

It’s a total of four tickets. The breakdown:

                         A                 B
5th race:   3 4 6 10 12  --  2 5 7
6th race:   4 5 8 11       --  2 7 10
7th race:   3 8 12
8th race:   4 5 11
9th race:   3 7 9 12
10th race: 5                  --  6 7 12

Main ticket
(3, 4, 6, 10, 12)/(4, 5, 8, 11)/(3, 8, 12)/(4, 5, 11)/(3, 7, 9, 12)/(5) = 720 = $144 at 20 cents

Backup ticket No. 1
(3, 4, 6, 10, 12)/(4, 5, 8, 11)/(3, 8, 12)/(4, 5, 11)/(3, 7, 9, 12)/(6, 7, 12) = 2,160 = $432 at 20 cents

Backup ticket No. 2
(2, 5, 7)/(4, 5, 8, 11)/(3, 8, 12)/(4, 5, 11)/(3, 7, 9, 12)/(5) = 432 = $86.40 at 20 cents

Backup ticket No. 3
(3, 4, 6, 10, 12)/(2, 7, 10)/(3, 8, 12)/(4, 5, 11)/(3, 7, 9, 12)/(5) = 540 = $108 at 20 cents

The total outlay is $770.40. That is less than half the cost of a single ticket, and it provides a seemingly ample amount of coverage. The trade-off is only being able to leave the “main ticket” once, in race 5, race 6, or race 10.

Budget-minded bettors – including this ticket maker – will form syndicates where percentages of any realistic play needn’t cost any single individual a small fortune.

May the horse be with you!

Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
the syndicates are going to learn the hard way that this format actually make it harder for them to make a profit...when they do hit the payouts will hardly compensate. And when they don't like yesterday when one guy took the 6 million pot its a very expensive waste of time .
kevin r More than 1 year ago
twinspires pool is a joke. They leave out a 3-1 shot when they have 200K to work with?
Cyclops More than 1 year ago
They saved most of the 200k play money for Monday.
Rickey Cooper More than 1 year ago
Twin spires is a joke.I entered one of their pools for 10$ and got back 16$ and at tax time got about 12 w2s for gambling income.Any way the pool was hit today so there will be nobody playing.
Cyclops More than 1 year ago
Somebody hit it. Twinspires player pool just missed it in the 5th leg.
Darrell Peck More than 1 year ago
they missed the 5th leg by only playing 3 of the 6 horses running. They only wagered about $10,000 today and still had $180,000 left to wager with. When you have $200,000 to use for three days of wagering you really should use more than $10,000 for the first two days.
Cyclops More than 1 year ago
I had a funny feeling they would want to take the P6 today rather than tomorrows mandatory payout.
Andy Dufresne More than 1 year ago
Just pick random numbers, for 20 cents your chances are about as good as winning powerball.
Lefty More than 1 year ago
I don't know any of the jockeys there. I don't know any of the horses there. I haven't payed attention to Gulfstream since the Florida Derby. Even though Six Million Big ones sounds really groovy to me, my chances at best would be slim and none. Even if I did have a bead on some of these Horses, my chances would be slim and none.