03/14/2012 1:01PM

2012 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 17

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Bob Coglianese
Howe Great, who will be pointed to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, enters the top 20 at Derby Watch at 50-1 odds after winning the Palm Beach Stakes on turf.

Who's Hot
Howe Great, the filly On Fire Baby, and Prospective – all of whom won stakes races last weekend – are the three newcomers to this week’s top 20 of Derby Watch. Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, has Prospective at 40-1 on his future line for the Kentucky Derby, with both Howe Great and On Fire Baby at 50-1. Creative Cause, who won the San Felipe last Saturday at Santa Anita, saw his price tumble from 12-1 last week to 8-1 this week, making him the co-third choice on Watchmaker’s line. San Felipe runner-up Bodemeister is down to 12-1 after being 25-1 a week ago.

Who's Not

Battle Hardened, Empire Way, and Fed Biz all were removed from the top 20, either because of poor performance or injury. Take Charge Indy, surprisingly scratched from the Tampa Bay Derby, floated up to 40-1 on Watchmaker’s line after being 30-1 last week, and Liaison, fourth in the San Felipe, is now 50-1 after being 40-1 a week ago.

On the Bubble

It’s probably too late in the game to take Currency Swap seriously as a Derby contender, but the Hopeful winner does return on Friday in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park that also drew Derby Watch member Gemologist. Others who could move onto the list should any in the top 20 falter include Daddy Nose Best, News Pending, and Scatman, who is scheduled to run in the Rebel on Saturday at Oaklawn.

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 contenders | Baffert relies on his intuition]