04/28/2011 5:58PM

2011 Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 28



Even though there were three significant withdrawals - Jaycito, J P’s Gusto, and The Factor - from the graded stakes earnings list in the past week, that had no impact on the Derby Watch top 20, because all three of those horses had already been dropped, owing to the expectation that they would not be in the Kentucky Derby field. So, there were only minor adjustments to this week’s list, confined to tweaks of the future book odds set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Watchmaker has moved Nehro into the spot as the Derby’s second choice, at 6-1, down from last week’s 8-1. Mucho Macho Man also came down a tick. He’s now 12-1 after being 15-1 a week ago.


Even though Uncle Mo had an encouraging workout this past week, Watchmaker still raised his price from 6-1 to 8-1, making him the third choice, effectively having him swap spots with Nehro. Midnight Interlude also floated up. He’s now 15-1 after being 12-1 a week ago, the reciprocal of what Watchmaker did with Mucho Macho Man.


As of Thursday morning, Anthony’s Cross had moved onto the bubble in terms of graded stakes earnings, so he’s next into the Derby if someone above him drops out between now and entry day Wednesday. A significant note to remember is that there is no also-eligible list for the Derby, so only 20 can have post positions drawn.