| DAN_ILLMAN: | Hi everybody! Thanks for attending tonight. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We'll start with a question from Rock_Hard_4 |
| Rock_Hard_4: | Q: Dan, any live longshots...dont tell anyone but I sort a like English Channel off his close effort v Shakespear? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think English Channel has a big chance to hit the board. He is a lightly-raced, improving 3yo... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and was very game in the Turf Classic. Now he goes 2nd off the layoff for Pletcher-John V. I'm using him. |
| Lure: | Q: Any thoughts on the european juvenile colts being worth a shot? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Ivan Denisovich looks the best of the three. He is a 3/4 brother to War Chant out of BC Distaff winner Hollywood Wildcat... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | O'Brien won this race with Johannesburg at Belmont a few years ago... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He does tend to get nervous in the post parade so watch him closely on the track... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Leo should like firm dirt, but he won a weak G2 last time out, and gets tested for class... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Don't think Set Alight will get the distance. He's a speed horse likely to get cooked. |
| horsecaller: | Q: Does Stevie Wonderboy's :46 work stamp him the pick for the Juv? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's a nice colt that should get a great pace setup, and his pedigree is incredible. I can't fault anyone that likes him... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | but he'll be facing some tough cookies so demand value before dumping it all on him. |
| D_Cali: | Q: Canandians nevr do particularly well. What do you think of Knights Templar in the Juv Fillies? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think she'll run a big race. You could argue that her last Beyer was a bit inflated... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | as she was unpressured on the lead, but she did everything the right way, and has good tactical speed... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She'll offer value, and I'll be using her on top in the Juvenile Fillies. |
| Giovanni: | Q: Hey Dan, what are your thoughts on Sensation in BCjuv-fill? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Live sleeper. She hasn't gone long yet, but certainly has the pedigree, and should have the bottom after 4 sprint races... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She can rate a bit as well, and that should be valuable in the JF. Her Beyers fit with these nicely... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and I'm using as a top 3 contender. |
| covers_vet: | Q: Why is everyone down on Sun King?Anything to like? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I've been a fan of Sun King in his debut since his debut as a 2yo. There doesn't look to be too much speed in the Classic so he may be a strong pace factor... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I still think he needs to improve in order to win this, however. |
| giacomo: | Q: Love Elusive Jazz and DRF article stating in the Phoenix BC he won "under moderate urging" . Moderate urging! Holy cow... what if they were trying??!! |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | You could argue that he would have won by more, but one has to wonder if he'll bounce against these top sprinters... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm going to lean elsewhere for the winner, but he's worth a flier underneath. |
| from_toronto: | Q: I note the wily French trainer Andre Fabre has Valixir in the mile at 10-1 and Shirocco in the Turf at 20-1. I see these two lighting up the tote board. Agree? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm picking Valixir on top, but don't really have a strong oppinion other than he's a Euro G1 winner that should like it soft... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | His Timeform numbers make him a contender, but he's reportedly a big, clumsy thing that tends to lug in/out... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's my pick, but he'll have to be a good price. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Shirocco will love soft turf, and looks like a serviceable longshot. I'll use him in my exotics and multi-race wagers. |
| Rick-James: | Q: Hey Dan, most people seem to think that Singletary cannot compete on an off track against the Euro's, but I actually think he has a very good chance, after all last year was a yielding track a Lone Star, what is your take on this? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Don't worry about the soft turf. He'll handle it just fine. He's a logical contender that should offer some value. I've never been a big fan myself, but then again, I didn't cash on him at 16-1 last year... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm going to try and beat him, but don't let the condition of the turf course dissuade you if you really like him. |
| backstretch: | Q: Dan the JUveniile looks very open to me esp. after first samuria final time of 27.3 for the last 1/4 in his last do you think he has the goods or will he faulter? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has the goods, you just never know which FS shows up. He's green, often lugs in during the stretch drive... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and often fails to change leads. He has all the talent, and should get a nice stalking trip under Bailey... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's a logical selection, and will be my top pick, but I'm not taking a short price in any BC race. This day is all about value. |
| peegye: | Q: starcraft could be a live bomb in the classic. his figures on turf match all of these horses. if he transforms it on dirt he could be huge |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That's a pretty big if...especially since he's breaking from the far outside post. I liked Starcraft a lot in the mile...He's off my tickets in the Classic. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Please do not submit your questions multiple times. All questions are being read, if your question is selected you will see it in the chat window on a delayed basis. Thanks. |
| big_george: | Q: Wildcat Heir? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I like him a lot. He's obviously had his problems, but when he shows up 100% fit, he's a handful... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has the stalking ability to gain first run on the speeds going into the turn. He'll also offer plenty of value...My top pick in the Sprint. |
| Andrew_C: | Q: Hi Dan...Ouija Board and Angara appear to be the two best horses in the F + M Turf, but they drew the 13 and 14 posts...do you think Favourable Terms, at 20-1 ML, is live under Kinane? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Hard to love Favourable Terms off her last race, but she's making the third start of the form cycle for a masterful horseman... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Still, she looks to be in tough. Angara is outside, but should like it soft. Ouija Board is outside, but has the great equalizer in Bailey. |
| TITAN: | Q: ARTIE SCHILLER has home court advantage this year . Never been close to 6-1 should we unload ? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He was the favorite for this race last year so you'll get some value on him. Still, he has disappointed greatly this year... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and he has even hung in a few of his races. Homecourt advantage...yes...good post...yes...I'm still trying to beat him. |
| Greinton: | Q: I like Intercontinental, but is 10 furlongs and a wet course too much to ask? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She's one of the craziest horses in the world, and is very difficult to ride. She likes to pull hard, and is often rank early... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That being said, she has great natural talent, and should be up close to a moderate pace. I'll be using her despite the stretchout to 10 furlongs, and hope she's on her best behavior. |
| giacomo: | Q: Choctaw Nation moved later than Borrego and lost by a diminishing 3/4 legth in the Pacific Classic. Gotta shot? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's gotta shot. Then again, I think 9 of them have a shot in the Classic. The race may not unfold like it did in the Pacific Classic, but he's worth a bet at good odds. |
| gforce: | Q: Hi Dan: G-Force from Boston. I always get crushed in the cup. Your "safest bets". ashado? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'll try to beat Ashado. She's one of my favorite horses, and always seems to be around at the finish... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | but you could argue that she's not as good now as she was last year, and will be an underlay... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'll give my top 3 or 4 for each race at the end of the session with best bet and "safest plays" included. |
| shorty: | Q: What do you think of In The Gold in the Distaff |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I've never liked In the Gold so I was angrily ripping up tickets when she won the Gazelle... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Remember, that she's facing elders for the first time so she must prove to me that she can put 2 winning races back-to-back. |
| Cogs: | Q: What are Original Spin chances? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It might be a case of too much too soon. She's got lots of ability and Lasix and Bailey certainly help... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | but she's only raced twice, and now has to deal with shipping, a big crowd, etc. A good horse to use underneath. |
| horsecaller: | Q: will LITF get loose on the lead? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think he'll be in on the lead as he may be the best gate horse in the world right now. There isn't a ton of pure speed in this year's Sprint... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and Baze probably won't fool around. If he thinks he has the best horse, he'll play catch me if you can. |
| Joe_S: | Q: Dan what is fair betting value for Lost in the Fog? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Only you can answer that question. If you think he should be 1-9, and he's even money, then he's an overlay... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | That's why it's important to make your own line...I think that fair odds for Lost in the Fog is about 7-5. He'll probably be shorter than that so I'll pass. |
| rod: | Q: I hear a lot of people touting Lost in the Fog for 3 yo of the year. I think if you win two of the classic races for 3yo's you shold be the winner even if you don't run in breeders cup. Do you have any feelings along this line. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Afleet Alex should be the 3yo champion no matter what Lost in the Fog does. I personally feel that you should give extra points to a horse that wins classic races and BC races... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If you count the Preakness, Belmont, and Breeders' Cup Sprint twice, you would have to give it to Afleet Alex. |
| cigar: | Q: Dan, Luas Line blasted a 108 fig @ Bel then was the favorite in QE2, now sitting at 15-1 in the ML. What gives? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I don't like Luas Line at all. She beat 3 horses including the incredibly overrated My Typhoon in the Garden City, and was very green in doing so... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She refused to relax in the QEII, and that cost her a better placing..I want to see a more professional effort from her before I play her... |
| figuresman: | Q: could Atilla's Storm inside be another Thunderello situation?? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Nice analogy. I don't see why not. He's got good early speed, is lightly-raced with improving Beyers... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | has won over the track, and will be a bomb. He does get a class test, and I don't think he's as fast early as LITF, however. At 30-1 or better, he's worth a couple of bucks. |
| The_Symposium: | Q: We (The Symposium) love Sorcerer's Stone in the Juvenile, he literally ran away from the field like Seabiscuit in the match race; what are your thoughts? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | But what did he run away from? I'm not convinced that the Arl-Wash Futurity was a strong race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and he didn't change leads the entire length of the stretch...HIs Beyers fit, and Pat Byrne knows how to win this race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I like his pedigree a lot, and think he can rate off the expected hot pace...He's certainly usable, and I will use him in exotics and multi-race wagers, but I don't love him. |
| peewee: | Q: Has Flower Alley got any chance at all? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has a puncher's chance. He may shake loose from them early, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of speed to run with him out of the gate... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I've never been a fan, however, and he just seems to be going the wrong way. If there's a strong speed bias, then consider him... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Otherwise, I'm going to toss him. |
| Killerfrog: | Q: Hi Dan, Any thoughts on Whipper or Host to upset? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Host has an interesting upset chance in teh Mile. He looked good in the Shadwell Mile, but I wonder if he's going to 'bounce' off that race... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'll probably use him underneath on my smaller exotic tickets...I liked Whipper last year, and he stunk up the joint... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He has talent, but he's nuts. He often gets all washed out, and hot and bothered. He can make an impact on his best day... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | but is a must-watch in the paddock, post parade, and warmups. |
| Bodgit: | Q: Dan - Can Better Talk Now relive the magic? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It would make for a great story, but I can't see it happening. He's a very cool horse that gives his all every time, but he... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | flattened out badly in the Arlington Million. He does move up on a soft course, however. I'll try and beat him. |
| CHRISKELLEY: | Q: Fourty-Niner's Son, chances? ... Soft Turf a problem??? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm not worried about the soft turf. He ran a very good third in the Million on yielding turf. He's a wise-guy horse from an excellent barn... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | and I think he'll take some action. I'll use him on the bottom of my exotics. |
| Indy_s_Boss_: | Q: Is Ouija Board ready in your opinion off one race?? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She had all kinds of problems after winning this race last year. She supposedly had a quarter crack, and then fractured a cannon bone earlier this season... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She looked really good last time out, however, and Bailey should fit her perfectly. She's the horse to beat. Likely, no value, though. |
| Booz_machine: | Q: I am salivating at betting Wend. She was a very wide second to Intercontinental last time out and closed into a slow pace. Memories of Starine Mr. Illman. Memories of Starine |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Wend is a very nice longshot play. She has good speed, is lightly-raced, and knows how to win. That last race looks like a perfect prep... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | She does get a bit hot coming out onto the track, however, so give her a good going-over in the paddock...I can't fault anyone who likes Wend. |
| LEWSCREW: | Q: Hi Dan, how much will the 13 post hurt St. Liam? Is he still bettable from that horrible post? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I don't think post 13 will murder Saint Liam. There isn't much speed in the race, and he's quick enough to find a good spot entering the backstretch...He doesn't offer value in a race that looks wide-open. |
| Ketchup_Popsicle_2: | Q: Rock Hard Ten has been a beast since switching to Mandella's barn. Can he race like that in NY? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Rock Hard Ten is another horse that gets excited very easily, and is one to watch in the preliminaries... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Can he race like that in NY? Well, he didn't in Pimlico for the Preakness, or at Belmont for the Belmont Stakes, or at Monmouth in the Haskell... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | SoCal only-type? Perhaps, but Mandella is the great equalizer, and the rail post should suit. A very logical, tough horse, but another that isn't going to give you bang for your buck. |
| longshots: | Q: Any thoughts on SIlverfoot in the BCTURF? THANKS |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Distance no problem. Class is a big issue, however. I'll try and beat him. |
| tivli: | Q: Do you think henny hughes will get an easy lead in the juv? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I think he'll be in front, but don't think it will be easy. He arguably ran the best race in the Champagne... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | as he dueled head-and-head throughout, and won the pace battle before succumbing to First Samurai late... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | He's a very good horse. The distance concerns me. |
| 1978to_TC: | Q: Azamour, Bago, and Shakespeare stand out in the Turf with most contenders either retired or inactive after last week's Woodbine race. Chalks 1-2-3 or do we see another Better Talk Now out of the blue? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Azamour is very logical, but he's been suffering from a foot abscess, and some back spasms... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | If he's 100%, he's tough. Again, I don't want to heavily back a favorite in a contentious race. Bago gets excited easily, and seems a bit off form... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Shakespeare may not like the going...English Channel may be a nice upset possibility. |
| swimmerAGS: | Q: What about Taste of Paradise? Is post 1 murder for thre sprint? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Post 1 is horrible because there is going to be a crush of horses trying to save as much ground as possible... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | while going as fast as they can. He's a closer that may be shuffled back, and will need lots of luck to win this. |
| pencildk: | Q: Does megahertz have any chance away from california? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Sure, she does. She loves to win, tries hard every time, and is trained by Frankel. She's one of the more logical contenders in the race, and may be under the radar a little bit. Certainly has a chance. |
| awesome_again: | Q: Could you give us your opinion on Wonder Again? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Soft turf moves her up 5 lengths, and she loves Belmont. That gives her a big chance right there. Domt' |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | think she's as good as that 110 Beyer in last year's Diana, but she looks like she's ready for a good performance. |
| Rosalind: | Q: Do you think Perfect Drift has any shot on Saturday? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I didn't like his race in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. Maybe he didn't like the slop, but he should have done better than that... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | I'm beginning to think that his Pacific Classic was more due to a pace collapse than a huge effort on his part. I'm standing against him. |
| Sunday_Silence__89: | Q: Dan- love your 2yo coverage (Spa Babies). Can Folklore win the Juv Fillies from the dreaded RAIL? |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | It's going to be tough. She's going to have to run and gun with plenty of speed to her outside, and she must prove that the bias-aided |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | 99+ Beyer isn't a fluke. I'm using her because she loves Belmont, but remember, she has never even attempted a route distance yet. She's no cinch by any means, and is going to get bet hard. |
| StormRunner: | Q: Dan Illman - Just give us your picks! |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | You got it... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | BC Juvenile Fillies - Knights Templar, Folklore, Sensation. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Juvenile - First Samurai, Henny Hughes, Sorcerer's Stone |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | F & M Turf - Ouija Board, Intercontinental, Wonder Again |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Sprint - Wildcat Heir, Silver Train, Attila's Storm (what? No Lost in the Fog?) |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Mile - Valixir, Majors Cast, Whipper (what, no Leroidesanimaux?) |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Distaff - Happy Ticket, Yolanda B. Too, Stellar Jayne (what, no Ashado?) |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Turf - Azamour, English Channel, Bago (what? no Shakespeare?) |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Classic - Borrego, Saint Liam, Rock Hard Ten, and a little Jack Sullivan action for the super... |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Now, you can safely throw these horses out with confidence. |
| DAN_ILLMAN: | Thank you for coming out tonight, and enjoy the Breeders' Cup. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Breeders' Cup Day past performances: Will be available late tonight! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | NEW RELEASE: Handicapping Contest Handbook - Revised and Updated Edition. By Noel Michaels. On sale now in the DRF Press online bookstore! Click the ad to your right for details. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | If you arrived late, we will be posting a transcript of tonight's chat within the hour in the DRF.com Breeders' Cup section. |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Be sure to join us tomorrow night from 7:00-8:00 pm Eastern for a chat with Andy Beyer. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of our good friend Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
