TUESDAY, OCT. 26, 2004
| Deanmachine: | Q: Sweet Catomine's Oak Leaf was visually impressive and her workout yeasterday was the best of 127 with apparent 160lb. exercise rider. Can you see her moving forward and crushing these? |
| Andy Beyer: | Possibly. I thought her races was visually impressive, too. But there are about 10 fillies in this race with figures within a few points of each other, and I don't see betting a relatively short priced favorite in a spot like this. |
| Shacopate: | Q: I like 3 longshots that appear to be cycling forward. Gold Storm-Sprint, Sis City-JF, and Newfoundland-Classic. All three held the lead down in lane in their latest prep. Which horse, if any, do you feel has the best chance to win on saturday? |
| Andy Beyer: | Sis City is out of the race, if I'm not mistaken. I don't like the others. Gold Storm was on a gold rail at Keeneland in his last, and Newfoundland isn't quite good enough for these. |
| boboo: | Q: What is Paulson thinking running Azeri in the Classic? |
| Andy Beyer: | I can't imagine. He's obviously had this idea in his mind for a long time, and he's going forward despite all logic to the contrary. Obviously, she has no chance of winning. What mystifies me is that he said in a press conference the other day that he was going to look at the Classic from the pace standpoint before coming to his decision. Didn't he see Roses in May in the race? He'll bury Azeri. |
| seatac: | Q: storm flag flying returned this year BIG on may 15th, then beat azeri on August 27th, now that azeri is going in the classic is storm flag flying the one to beat in the distaff? |
| Andy Beyer: | I don't know if she's the one to beat, but she certainly becomes a contender. However, when she beat Azeri at Saratoga--her lone win in her last four starts--she was the beneficiary of an absoultely perfect trip behind a big speed duel. |
| BACKSTRETCH2: | Q: Alot of people like GZ in the classic I dont give him a chance to hit the board he never has gone the distance your thoughts? |
| Andy Beyer: | As a figure guy, I have to respect any horse who has run sensational numbers such as he has. His 128 at Monmouth, as you probably know, was the biggest figure since our numbers started to appear in the DRF in 1992. Of course, he hasn't tried to go 10 furlongs yet, but what's to say that he can't? He's done just about everything else brilliantly. |
| Mark: | Q: In the breeder's cup classic: it's obvious that Ghostzapper is a super horse -- but how super is he really? He scored an amazing 128 in the Iselin, but I'm assuming that was inflated a lot due to the slop. His recent workout of 1:17 is rather uninspirin |
| Andy Beyer: | There are a lot of times when we look at exceptional figures, scratch our heads and ask, "Could this be right?"--but this was not the case with Ghostzapper's 128. It was cut and dried. How much he moved up in the slop I can't begin to guess. But he had run 120 in his previous start, at 7f, and it's conceivable he has been wanting all along to go longer distances. |
| mark_2: | Q: Hi Andy. Great call on Cajun Beat last year; who is the Cajun Beat sleeper of 04? CB himself? Thanks. |
| Andy Beyer: | Not this year--he has never duplicated that great Breeders' Cup race, and I'm a little wary of betting any Frankel horse in view of his dismal Breeders' Cup history. I don't know that I've got any bombs about whom I feel so strongly this year, but I think that Dance Away Capote has a solid chance at a big price in the Juvenile Fillies. |
| jimbo66: | Q: Can you envisioin any scenario where Azeri finishes in the top 3? She can't send and win, she can't rate and win, she can't run with them period. |
| Andy Beyer: | No, I can't. I can't see her in the top half of the field. |
| taggrules: | Q: How can we have a Beyer chat and not ask, "What is your five star mortal lock"? And I dont want to hear another short priced Little Lenny/ Winter's Tale exacta! |
| Andy Beyer: | I can't proclaim any mortal locks on this card, but I do like Ghostzapper in the Classic. I'll live and die with the figs in that spot. And, as I said, I could get a little excited about Dance Away Capote if she's 20 to 1 or thereabouts. |
| baltphil: | Q: If Super Brand continues her improvement, can she be competitive in the Filly and Mare Turf at a price? |
| Andy Beyer: | Well, she's gone from a fig of 90 to 94, but she's going to have to accelerate her improvement a lot. I don't see a race in her PPs that would come close to making her a contender here, and she is running against a European killer. |
| Trezza: | Q: How will the Europeans fare this year considering the fact that Lone Star might not be condusive to their running styles? |
| Andy Beyer: | Everybody said the same thing at Santa Anita last year and the Euros did fine there. The Europeans are always making excuses in advance; it's too hot, too far to ship, the turns are too tight. The problem this year, really, is that their horses don't look all that strong, except for Ouija Board in the Filly and Mare Turf. Their contingent in the Mile looks below-average, and in the Turf they have rarely faced an American horse as good as Kitten's Joy. |
| capp: | Q: From Capp: What about Island Fashion in the Distaff, can he win at a price? |
| Andy Beyer: | I'm inclined to take a stand against her, even though she has by far the best back dope, now that Azeri is out of the race. She hasn't run a big race since the Big Cap last March. I suppose you could argue that her comeback win in the Lady's Secret was a good tuneup and she's going to move forward, but I didn't like that race, either visually or figure-wise. She was life-and-death to hold on and earn a number of 94. |
| Troy: | Q: Mr. Beyer, How concerned are you with the extra time given off for horses like Birdstone, Pleasantly Perfect, and Ghostzapper? Not really the traditional way of bringing horses into the BC is it? |
| Andy Beyer: | Well, everybody's doing it more and more, and those horses are trained by three of the best in the training business. Still, there's a fair amount of evidence that laying off from August till the Breeders' Cup is a losing strategy. I think trainers are getting too cautious. After all, these are tough older horses. If 3-year-olds can do what they do getting ready for the Triple Crown series, does a veteran like Pleasantly Perfect need all this rest before a big racde? |
| katmandu8: | Q: the sprint looks wide open w/ speightstown having thrown a clunker in his last...do you think he rebounds to win or are you looking for another horse to step up? |
| spinnin: | Q: Funny Cide has a lot of heart and appears in good form. Does he have what it takes to win the Classic? We know he likes the distance. Tagg thinks he will win! |
| Andy Beyer: | I just don't think he's good enough on his best form. But his last race was quite good; he gave a gutsy performance, and the figure might have been even higher than we gave him. That was a confusing day. |
| Outlander: | Q: I really like Sense of Style in the JF - What is your take? |
| Andy Beyer: | She did run into trouble in the stretch at Keeneland, and the jockey did wrap her on her late. But I'm not convinced she had any run to give. For all the hype about her, Sense of Style's best figures don't give her any edge over the field, and now she's coming off a poor effort. She's going to be a big underlay. No thanks. |
| jimbo66: | Q: Do you think Roman Ruler is a solid favorite or a good "go against" in the Juvenile? I am leaning towards Sun King and Consolidator right now, but am afraid of Roman Ruler. |
| Andy Beyer: | I just don't know. I can't decide what to do with him either. The pluses: his figures of 106 and 103 are the two best performances in the field. But his stakes wins have come in fields of 4, 4 and 5 horses; the only time he got a challenge he was beaten. I'm confused. |
| SpartanTom: | Q: Will Allen Jerkens get his first BC win with Society Selection in the Distaff now that Azeri has defected? |
| Andy Beyer: | He certainly can; Society Solection looks to me like the best horse on paper. I just hate to bet on trainers with a consistenty poor record in the Breeders' Cup. |
| HARRAHSLADOWNS: | Q: Mr. Beyer, I know you Love the GZapp beyers but remember Midway Road eye blistering beyers? This horse hasn't won lately or come close. I think GZapp is a blimp |
| Andy Beyer: | I don't think the comparison is apt. Midway Road got very good for a brief time and unleashed that one giant number on a sloppy track Ghostzapper showed signs of real brilliance last year, too; he ran a figure of 116 as a 3-year-old, and was visually sensational in some other races too. He's continued his improvement this year. He's neither a blip nor a blimp. |
| peteaxthelm: | Q: You can get 25-1 right now on Dance Away Capote at William Hill. Should we grab it? |
| Andy Beyer: | Grab it. |
| onafasttrack: | Q: Hi Andy, How do Timeform ratings compare to Beyer spped figures ? Is there a formula to convert those Timeform ratings ? |
| Andy Beyer: | My rough rule of thumb is to subtract 14 points from the Timeform numbers; that works reasonably well--at least for upper-level horses of the sor t who come to the Breeders' Cup. As horses get cheaper, the difference between the two scales is narrower. |
| bettor13: | Q: I think the Mile will be a blanket finish...do you have any strong opinions in the mile? |
| Andy Beyer: | I almost always guess wrong in the Mile, particularly about the Euros. This year they don't look so strong to me. Even though his speed figures aren't especially great, Artie Schiller has compiled an outstanding record and has a powerful stretch kick. He'll probably be my pick,, but I'll probably be wrong in this race again. |
| thebrock22: | Q: How do you view Champali's chances in the Sprint? |
| Andy Beyer: | He's OK. I've always thought he was just a cut below the top sprinters, but I've got a knock on just about everybody in the field. I thought his win at Keeneland was a good one; he was chasing three-wide on that rail-favoring track. A lot of people seem to like Clock Stopper out of that Keeneland race, but he's too slow for my taste; at least Champali's got tactical speed. |
| figuresman: | Q: What about Culinary in the JF? She has more upside than most, and may not even need to improve off her win over Runway Model |
| Andy Beyer: | I like her. She will definitely be part of my exactas. I thought her race at Arlington was visually impressive, and the figure might have been higher than the 86 we gave her. (It was a tough day to make the variant.) |
| gilly: | Q: if you had $100 to bet on ONE BC win ticket, what would that be ? |
| Andy Beyer: | The one win bet I've made is on Ghostzapper at 11-2 in the futures. |
| chip_2: | Q: what your feelings on dynever chances since he has already had a trip over the track? |
| Andy Beyer: | I was a leader of the Dynever fan club last year; if he'd won the Classic I would have had a spectacular day. But his form this year has been a disappointment. I just can't see him against this tough field. |
| frangooch: | Q: Hey Andy, I like Our New Recruit in the Sprint. Do you think he's good enough? At what odds? |
| Andy Beyer: | He's never run a race remotely good enough to win the Sprint. My improvised figure for his win in Dubai was a low one, and his comeback race at Dubai wasn't particularly fast either. |
| pensive: | Q: Please give me your opinion of Afleet Alex in the Juveniles. Does he have the potential to win this and go on to be a Kentucky Derby Horse? |
| Andy Beyer: | I don't believe he's going to prove a true distance horse. He's got a sprint-oriented pedigree, and I wasn't convinced by his rally in the Champagne. He was rallying versus Proud Accolade, who is also likely to be a sprinter-miler type. I think they're both likely to be the kind of early season flashes who are forgotten by the first Saturday in May. |
| Andrew_C: | Q: What do you think of Abbondanza in the Sprint? I like his early speed, and he'll likely be a price. |
| Andy Beyer: | I understand we're getting a lot of questions about Abbondanza. Is there mass hysteria out there? This horse has never won a graded stakes. And don't be swayed too much by that 43 1/5 half mile in his last start; the track at Philly Park was lighting fast that day. There's no way he gets the lead in here. |
| mingun: | Q: with the defection of balto star and now probably ouija board from the turf,dos it now leave it open for kittens joy to repeat his turf classic win given the same pace scenario as that daythus kittens joy once again not having his stamina tested??? |
| Andy Beyer: | I don't think Kitten's Joy needs a particular scenario. He can finish like a rocket or he can stalk the pace. He's the best U. S. turf horse we've seen in quite some time. If he wins, there are going to be some interesting arguments about whether he or Smarty Jones deserves the 3-year-old title. |
| slim_jim: | Q: No one seems to like Soaring Free off his Atto Mile victory, what are your thoughts on him and the quality of the Atto Mile field ? |
| Andy Beyer: | The figure was fairly weak (103) and that was the only time Soaring Free has gone beyond 7 furlongs successfully. He's certainly not going to get a favorable trip with a speedster like Special Ring in the field. Can't see him. |
| Dreams_Made_Reak: | Q: What are your thoughts on Kela and Bwana charlie |
| Andy Beyer: | I don't think Bwana Charlie is good enough, but Kela comes into the field with the best last-race figure, 116. I've looked long and hard at him. But I think he doesn't have enough quickness. He's won at a distance shorter than seven furlongs only once in his career, and that was in a field of five. |
| Andy Beyer: | Thanks everybody; sorry I couldn't get to all your questions. Have a great Breeders' Cup! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | Thanks for coming tonight. We hope you have a fun and profitable Breeders' Cup! |
| DRF_WebGrp: | BREEDERS' CUP PAST PERFORMANCES: Breeders' Cup Day full card past performances go on sale tomorrow! Check the the DRF.com home page on Wednesday. |
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| DRF_WebGrp: | In the words of the great Stanley Bergstein, good night all. |
