This is the lightest stakes Saturday on the calendar until May 9, and even beyond that, it’s an odd collection of races. But surely somewhere within a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma there is a fair-priced winner.
Wishing Well
Gratefully is the 2-1 morning-line favorite in this restricted turf-sprint stakes. Sign me up – to side against her.
ROBIN OLDS
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Last race: Feb. 13, 8th
Finish: 3rd by 2 1/4
Beyer: 54
Solid debut by Mo Forza colt produced by stakes winner Enola Gray. Rated at back in Cal-bred maiden turf mile, saved ground, 23.87 final quarter, galloped out in front. Nice career launch.
Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:44 p.m. (ET)
The two horses likely to attract the most support in this conditioned claimer both have questions to answer. The more trustworthy of the two appears to be Good Money (#4), who makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. However, there are some questions surrounding this gelding as he drops despite coming off a victory. He had been in some very capable barns early in his career and has steadily tailed off, so it's fair to wonder if even Linda will get him to reverse that form trajectory.
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:12 p.m. (ET)
A strong rail bias took hold of Aqueduct's dirt surface over a week ago and hasn't loosened its grip since. Day after day, horses who hug the inside path find an extra gear in upper stretch while those who stay outside start spinning their wheels. At this point, it seems reasonable to let the bias guide your handicapping.
RACE 5: All of these 3-year-old fillies are trying two turns for the first time, and DAY AT A TIME is bred to run on. She crushed maidens with the addition of Lasix in her local debut a month ago and goes without the diuretic this time. Favored CAPROCK CUTIE won a restricted stakes two back at Zia and is coming off a flat fourth here at even money. She’s the first foal from a versatile miler. Off a close second in her stakes debut, I AM PAULA REVERE could lead the way after breaking from the rail. (3)
Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 4:13 p.m. (ET)
If the rail bias that we have observed over the last week persists into Friday, Vibrant Express (#1) obviously becomes a serious threat to wire this field. I will continue to hope that the track maintenance crew can even out the surface, and without that potential advantage I wouldn't have much interest in this horse. He's obviously in strong form right now, having won three in a row. However, he's beaten up on softer company and has done so with very favorable trips.
RACE 6: BEAR CLAW NECKLACE held on for second at this nonwinners-of-two level last out in his debut for hot trainer David Fawkes, who has an excellent 23 percent strike rate second time off a claim going back five years ($1.49 ROI). SHADOW CAST is another runner with speed who could do some damage second time off the claim by a high-percentage trainer.
RACE 6: SULTRY LASS, an $80,000 claim two back at Keeneland, is eligible to improve significantly in her second local outing and first start for trainer Brittany Russell, who also is sending out COMPLEXITY JANE. The latter is aiming for her third consecutive stakes score in her third try off a break. ATLANTIS QUEEN romped in a first-level allowance in her penultimate race at Laurel while earning an 81 Beyer, a speed figure that definitely puts her in the ballpark with these. (3)
It’s great that the chance of Saturday afternoon rain in New Orleans has steadily diminished through the week. Also great: Fair Grounds’s decision to run the Risen Star, the last of a dozen Saturday races, more than an hour earlier than usual, in daylight rather than under lights.
Risen Star
I like Golden Tempo quite a bit – liked him in his debut, liked him in the Lecomte, both wins. Look at his light speed figures as a hint of capability rather than a hard cap on his ceiling, but Golden Tempo’s only the third most likely Risen Star winner.
