LAS VEGAS – We talk a lot in this column about how the point spread is the great equalizer.
Oddsmakers will always adjust to any trend in the marketplace and take away the betting value. That’s why it always seems by the time you hear about a juicy trend and start betting it, it almost always reverses.
As the audience settles in for Saturday’s Hollywood Turf Cup and the house lights dim, a corresponding crowd in a Broadway theater might hear something like this:
“Ladies and gentlemen, one announcement before we present the final major long-distance grass race of a memorable California season: For this performance, the part of Acclamation will be played by Norvsky.”
“The Quarter Horse crowd claims that lowly barrel racing is just a cheaper vehicle for Gretna Racing to qualify for poker rooms and slot machines. Of course, the Thoroughbred folks said the same thing about Quarter Horse tracks. They’re both right. Gambling conglomerates, if they could get slots and card rooms and table games, would happily reduce their parimutuels to hermit crab races.”
– columnist Fred Grimm, Miami Herald
If Aikenite only knew. If he only knew the pressure he was under last weekend at Churchill Downs when he went postward in the $1.5 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Not only was he carrying the hopes and dreams of his Dogwood Stable partnership, he was hauling the whole load of the future book bet placed by Dogwood president Cot Campbell last spring, when he gambled $5,000 and got 10-1 that their colors would be carried to at least one Breeders’ Cup victory at the 2011 competition.
Is the NBA missed here?
The sports books miss the handle, but bettors are mostly just putting more of their bankrolls into football, so any real impact won’t be felt until February.
Personally, I’m glad there’s no pro basketball to follow as this past week has been the busiest I have ever had with the Breeders’ Cup and World Series of Poker final table thrown on top of the regular football action, so let me clean out my reporter’s notebook:
Mike Smith raised a few eyebrows Tuesday morning when he was out early at Hollywood Park beating the weeds for business. Guess folks figured a 45-year-old Hall of Famer fresh off a two-bagger in the Breeders’ Cup would be sleeping in an extra day. Or the rest of the year.
“No way,” Smith protested. “That’s why I went out there to let everybody know I wasn’t about to do that. I’m here to ride.”
The debate over the Horse-of-the-Year title, which inspired such passion at the end of the last two racing seasons, will be muted in the wake of the 2011 Breeders' Cup. With the world's best Thoroughbreds gathered at Churchill Downs, not a single one could muster a performance that would merit the sport's highest honor.
The most celebrated racehorses in the world compete in the Breeders’ Cup races, but bettors shouldn’t let themselves be blinded by lofty reputations. The way to make money in this game is to look for vulnerability in favorites, and there may be several such opportunities at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
If Uncle Mo wins the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs on Saturday it will be:
1. The greatest training feat in the history of the Breeders’ Cup.
2. The greatest training feat in the history of mankind.
3. The second-greatest training feat on Saturday afternoon.
