On paper, Essential Quality is the best horse going into this year’s Kentucky Derby. But when betting a race like the Derby, with a 20-horse field and all the other uncertainties that go with it, value is the key with the question being is Essential Quality worth the short price he figures to be, somewhere in the vicinity of 2-1, after the last of Mattress Mack’s win bets have gone through the windows?
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DRF Past Performances
ESSENTIAL QUALITY’s tactical speed and versatility might be key in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Assuming a clean break, the undefeated colt can adapt to any sort of pace scenario. If they go fast up front, as in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he can succeed from eight to 10 lengths off the lead. If they slow down the pace such as in the recent Blue Grass, he can sit right up close. I don’t think he squeezed the lemon dry when scoring at Keeneland last month, and he should be right in the thick of things when the real racing starts on the second turn.
If ESSENTIAL QUALITY had won the Blue Grass by a neck under moderate urging, looking like a horse going through a two-race progression to the Kentucky Derby with his connections ensuring they were leaving something in the tank, I would just eat his relatively short price (made shorter by the intended multi-million wager from Jim McIngvale).
There are lots of ways to lose the Kentucky Derby, including a bad trip from an inside post. But if KNOWN AGENDA gets beat from the rail, the likely reason is he simply was not good enough. Much improved when he added blinkers two back, he employs a versatile style and is comfortable eating dirt inside and behind traffic. He is bred for 1 1/4 miles and established his class scoring a decisive Grade 1 victory last out in the Florida Derby.
KING FURY may be a bit behind the eight ball with just one start as a 3-year-old, even with that race being a career-best effort. The silver lining for this well-bred son of Curlin lies in that he had a solid foundation last year with five juvenile starts, including a stakes win over Churchill Downs dirt, leaving him open to further improvement now that he has had a race.
B. Wayne Hughes's Spendthrift Farm already had multiple rooting interests in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, and it has added another. The farm announced Thursday that it has secured the breeding rights to Derby entrant Rock Your World, and will stand the colt upon his eventual retirement.
Thu, 04/29/2021 - 13:40
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Todd Pletcher’s presence in the Kentucky Derby is as much a rite of spring as baseball, taxes, and the Masters.
Starting in 2000, Pletcher has participated in 19 of 20 Kentucky Derbies. Ten times in that span, Pletcher has had three or more runners, including in 2010, when he started four horses and won his first Derby with Super Saver. In 2017, Always Dreaming, one of three starters Pletcher had that year, gave him his second blanket of roses.
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Weather: Showers
Temp. 68
Track: Sloppy
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Although the weather should be clear and the track fast on Kentucky Derby Day, such was not the case just 48 hours in advance of the main event, with rain showers and a sloppy racetrack greeting the 20 Derby contenders when they came out to train Thursday morning at Churchill Downs.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Trainer Danny Velazquez was happy to be at Churchill Downs Thursday on a damp, humid morning. Quite frankly, Velazquez is happy to be anywhere.
Velazquez, who is making his Kentucky Derby debut Saturday with longshot Brooklyn Strong, was involved in a freak accident at Parx in March. During training hours, a horse unseated its rider and ran right into Velazquez, who was aboard his stable pony. Velazquez was thrown hard off the pony.