Fri, 05/04/2018 - 12:46

Peck: Evaluating value in the 2018 Kentucky Derby

While there certainly are instances where there are virtually uniform opinions, the concept of value is much like beauty, as it is largely in the eye of the beholder - in this case, the handicapper. So here's one handicapper's take on what horses offer value in the Kentucky Deryb. To simplify, we'll use the Churchill Downs morning line as an odds barometer:

#1    FIRENZE FIRE (50-1) Proof that long odds alone don't constitute value. His speed figures suggest he has little to no chance to hit the board, and the inside draw doesn't help matters.

Thu, 05/03/2018 - 13:04

Bernier: 2018 Kentucky Derby pace analysis

Barbara D. Livingston
Promises Fulfilled figures to be part of the early pace in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

The Kentucky Derby generally features an honest pace, and the 144th running this year appears to be no different. While there may not be many true front-runners in this year’s Derby, the number of horses who like to be forwardly placed and who possess solid tactical speed should ensure a genuine pace throughout.

Thu, 05/03/2018 - 12:58

McCraken ends layoff with Derby Day allowance

Barbara D. Livingston
McCraken (left) will be making his first start since October on Saturday.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - On the first Saturday of May 2017, McCraken was in the Kentucky Derby spotlight, ultimately finishing eighth as the 6-1 fourth choice in the 20-horse field.

On the first Saturday of May 2018, McCraken will be one of three graduates of the 2017 Kentucky Derby to run in allowance races at Churchill Downs. McCraken will compete in a multi-conditioned one-mile allowance that goes as race 5.

Thu, 05/03/2018 - 11:16

Derby Clocker: Mendelssohn, fashionably late, jogs with entourage

Barbara D. Livingston
Mendelssohn, who romped in the United Arab Emirates Derby for trainer Aidan O’Brien last out, cleared quarantine Wednesday and visited the Churchill track for the first time Thursday.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Mendelssohn was the horse everyone was waiting to see here Thursday following his release from quarantine the previous afternoon.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner clearly announced his presence to the crowd with a few good hollers, apparently par for the course for him, as he jogged by the grandstand with a trio of his buddies from the Aidan O’Brien barn shortly after the special Derby-Oaks training session ended around 7:45 a.m.

Thu, 05/03/2018 - 10:40

All-star cast makes for especially compelling Kentucky Derby

Jim Leuenberger
Kentucky Derby favorite Justify, with trainer Bob Baffert (right) at Churchill Downs, can become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby after starting his career at age 3.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Quantifying a race as the “best ever” or “best in years” is largely a matter of subjective opinion, but there are cold, hard facts that make the 144th Kentucky Derby on Saturday here at Churchill Downs deserving of its prerace huzzahs.

Never before has a Derby featured two Breeders’ Cup winners, something that will happen when Eclipse Award recipient Good Magic, who took the Juvenile last fall, and Mendelssohn, the Juvenile Turf winner, line up.

Thu, 05/03/2018 - 09:37

Exotic bets galore on Kentucky Derby card

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - There’s the usual betting smorgasbord available to bettors on the 14-race Saturday card, including these offerings: three 50-cent pick fives (races 3-7, 8-12, 10-14), four 50-cent pick fours (races 2-5, 5-8, 9-12, 11-14), a $2 Single 6 (races 7-12), and the familiar array of rolling doubles, pick threes, and vertical wagers, including a $1 super high five on the Derby (race 12).

Superfectas are normally available at 10-cent increments, but not on Oaks and Derby Days, when a $1 minimum is in effect.

Thu, 05/03/2018 - 09:34

No 294-1 shots in this year's Kentucky Derby

Barbara D. Livingston
Bravazo is among six horses listed at 50-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Including the lone also-eligible, Blended Citizen, among the 21 entered in Kentucky Derby 144 there are six horses listed at 50-1 on the Churchill morning line. They are Firenze Fire, Lone Sailor, Bravazo, Instilled Regard, Combatant, and Blended Citizen. Seven more are pegged at 30-1.

The debate rages, therefore, as to which horse will wind up being the longest shot at post time. A highly informal poll taken this week among media wags landed on Bravazo, but only the international wagering audience has the final answer.

Wed, 05/02/2018 - 20:50

There's nothing by the numbers about Mendelssohn

Neville Hopwood/Dubai Racing Club
Mendelssohn, under Ryan Moore, dominates the UAE Derby winning by 18 3/4 lengths.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – This guy named Aidan O’Brien has run horses in 61 American races that weren’t on turf and come away with two lousy wins. Some trainer, hey? And his jockey, Ryan Moore? Goose eggs across the win, place, and show columns in 18 American starts that weren’t on turf.

Who do these people think they are, bringing this grandiosely named colt Mendelssohn from Ireland to race in the Kentucky Derby?

Here’s a good place to invoke a useful phrase introduced into the American lexicon by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Wed, 05/02/2018 - 20:40

Hovdey: Espinoza lands prime opportunity to join Derby elite

Debra A. Roma
Victor Espinoza, 44, began his racing career in 1992.

There is an empty stall on a particular version of horse racing’s Mount Rushmore – the one with the faces of Eddie Arcaro, William Hartack, and Bill Shoemaker staring down upon the mortals below.

Wed, 05/02/2018 - 16:00

NBC's wire-cam to give fans better look at Kentucky Derby

NBC will debut a wire-cam that runs 15-18 feet above the racing surface of the entire backstretch at Churchill Downs during its broadcasts this week of the Kentucky Derby and other races from Churchill Downs, officials of the network said this week.

The wire-cam is secured by a 1,400-foot long cable that runs down the backstretch, and it will be capable of traveling up to 80 miles per hour, officials said during a conference call on Wednesday previewing the live racing coverage scheduled for Friday and Saturday on NBC and NBCSN.