Considering favorites won the last six Kentucky Derbies, perhaps the race is due for an upset. That is not likely if Game Winner maintains top form. Indications are the division leader will do more than simply maintain form – he might improve.

Believing that the finest 3-year-old preps were in Arkansas over the past couple of months, I’ve picked IMPROBABLE to win Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. After an unbeaten campaign at 2, he seems to have lost a little popularity after defeats in his two starts as a 3-year-old, both at Oaklawn Park. In each loss, he had excuses while still performing well to be second. He returned from a layoff and raced wide in his first start of the year in a division of the Rebel and then grew anxious in the starting game before the Arkansas Derby, necessitating a reload.

Omaha Beach and Improbable separated themselves from the rest of the field in the Arkansas Derby and in so doing appeared to also have separated themselves slightly from the well-matched group of 3-year-olds assembling to decide this year’s Derby.

It is only fitting that Danny Gargan’s first Kentucky Derby starter comes with a horse he obtained via the claim box. Since going out on his own in 2013, Gargan has developed one of the top claiming outfits on the East Coast.

Last fall, he took Tax for $50,000, believing he might be getting turf horse. Instead, Tax has brought Gargan back to his old Kentucky home for the country’s biggest horse race, Saturday’s 145th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – They’re the rookies, the new recruits, the incoming class. They’re the fortunate few about to experience the thrill of their first Kentucky Derby starter.

Regardless of how often they’ve been in attendance at Churchill Downs on Derby Day or how successful their careers have already been, a whole new world will open to them when the starting gate is sprung Saturday for the 145th Run for the Roses.

Here are the first-time trainers and jockeys with horses in the main body of the Derby:

Bret Calhoun (By My Standards)

When the 20 horses enter the starting gate for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, only one of them will have a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more - Florida Derby winner Maximum Security who actually has two. But half of the rest of the field will have earned figures of between 95 and 99 this year, making this an especially difficult Beyer Speed Figure puzzle.

CHURCHILL DOWNS
Weather: Sunny
Track: Fast
Temp.: 66  

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The first local appearances of Japan’s Master Fencer and New York invaders Tax and Haikal were among the highlights during the Oaks/Derby training session that took place under ideal conditions Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It was a tumultuous winter in Southern California, but if two noted oddsmakers are correct, the public will deem the first four choices in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday colts who did the bulk of their training out there.

Omaha Beach was installed as the Derby favorite, with the Bob Baffert-trained trio of Game Winner, Improbable, and Roadster holding the next three spots, when Daily Racing Form’s Mike Watchmaker and Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs set their lines following the draw for posts on Tuesday at Churchill Downs.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Japanese invader Master Fencer is a mystery horse for handicappers in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, though he is now less of an uncertainty to his jockey, Julien Leparoux, after he became acquainted with the colt during training on Tuesday at Churchill Downs.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The heavy lifting is now over for the 22 horses still under consideration for this year’s Kentucky Derby, with the final major works turned in at both Churchill Downs and in South Florida on Monday morning.