Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Ole Miss Betting Preview

Three things you should know before betting the Sugar Bowl:

1. The strength of Ole Miss is an offense that averaged 35.9 points per game and was one of only four FBS teams to gain an average of more than 505 total yards per game during the 2021 regular season. Baylor, however, ranked tied for 14th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 19.2 points per game. The Bears are 9-0-1 against the spread since the start of the 2019 season when facing an opponent that scores an average of at least 34 points per game, with all but one of those 10 games having gone Under the total.

2. Ole Miss outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.9 points per game during the 2021 regular season. Since the start of 2019, Baylor is 10-1-1 against the spread when facing an opponent with a positive scoring margin of 10 or more points per game, and the Bears are 14-5 against the spread in that same timeframe versus opponents with a winning record.

3. All but one of the games Baylor has played since the start of the 2019 season against opponents averaging at least 34 points per game have gone Under the total. Meanwhile, all six games that Ole Miss has played this season against opponents that average 31 or more points per game have gone Under the total. The Under is 6-1 in games the Rebels have played under head coach Lane Kiffin against opponents that average at least 5.9 yards per play.