National Championship Betting Guide: UNC vs. Kansas

North Carolina and Kansas have a date set in the National Championship in the Superdome down in New Orleans. The Tarheels got to the National Championship as an eight seed after upsetting Duke in the Final Four and ending Coach K’s career while Kansas dominated Villanova with a wire-to-wire victory. The National Championship between UNC and Kansas will tip at 9:20 PM ET tonight on TBS. 

UNC has won and covered all of its games in the NCAA Tournament and has won outright as an underdog three times with an average margin of victory of 4.5 in those games. The Tarheels this season average 78.1 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting and knock down shots from behind the arc at 36.2 percent clip. The Tarheels defense allows 71.3 points on 42.5 percent shooting.

North Carolina started the season slow and for a good portion of the year weren’t firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. Since the start of February 8, the Tarheels have been dominant with just two losses and in the NCAA Tournament they are averaging 82.2 points per game with an average margin of victory of 14. The two players to watch for UNC is Caleb Love a sharp shooting guard that has ice cubes running through his veins as he has hit some of the biggest shots of the tournament time and time again. The other player to watch is Mr. Double-Double Armando Bacot. He has been a force down low pulling in 20+ rebounds in back to back games and his matchup with Kansas’ David McCormack will be an amazing game within the game.  

Kansas has waltzed its way to the National Championship after dominating Villanova in the Final Four marking its third win over a Big East team this tournament. (Creighton, Providence, Villanova.) Kansas has averaged 77 points per game in the NCAA Tournament with an average margin of victory of 14.2 points. Ochai Agbaji averages 18.9 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting and the senior guard is coming off a 21 point performance against Villanova. His play will be key for the Jayhawks if they want to get Bill Self another National Title. But the real guy to watch is 6’10 senior forward David McCormack. Standing nearly 7 feet tall and 250 pounds, his play will be instrumental for Kansas against UNC and Bacot. Bacot has pulled in 40+ rebounds across the last two games combined and is the all-time leader in Double-Doubles in a single season in ACC history. McCormack is coming off a 25 point, nine rebound performance and has to do something similar against the Tarheels for Kansas to have a shot. His size can cause problems and wreck havoc so be aware of McCormack. 

Player Props

Ochai Agbaji OVER 16.5 points: Agbaji averages 18.9 points per game and has scored 18+ the last two games. While not a volume shooter, Agbaji gets 30+ minutes every game and will have the opportunities to get his points. He has been shooting the lights out as the last two games, 93 percent from deep and 71 percent on all field goals, so expect him to put up 17 easily. 

David McCormack UNDER 7.5 Rebounds: McCormack has snagged 8 or more rebounds just once in the NCAA Tournament and he averages just 6.9 per game. He has great size and can stuff the stat sheet with points, however rebounding isn’t something he is elite at and he is going up against an elite rebounder in Bacot. Boards you can normally tally towards McCormack won’t be there and I expect the big man to get about 5-7 in this game. 

Brady Manek OVER 16.5 points: Brady Manek is an animal and will pose a problem for the Kansas defense. Manek is a 6’9 forward who can step out and drain threes. He put up 54 combined points in the first weekend (26 & 28), 32 in the second weekend (13 & 19) and tacked on 14 more against Duke. He is averaging 20 points this NCAA Tournament and will have his opportunities against the Jayhawks. 

Recent Trends

In the NCAA Tournament UNC is undefeated against the spread and is 7-5 against the spread and straight up as an underdog. 

Kansas on the other hand is 3-2 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament and has a losing record against the spread vs. teams with a winning record going 16-17. Kansas is 12-1 straight up in neutral court games but just 8-5 against the spread.  

Key Injuries

Keep an eye on Bacot’s ankle. He rolled the ankle late vs. Duke but was able to come back and play in that game. He is a full participant in practice and will still get his normal minutes but just something to monitor. 

Why Kansas can cover the 4 point Spread as Favorites

Kansas is a solid team from top to bottom. They don’t commit turnovers, they have an extremely efficient offense and defense and they have veteran leadership. Bill Self, at this moment, is the better coach and he is 68-48 ATS in his career vs. teams that out rebound their opponents by 4+ a game. With Agbaji, McCormack and Remy Martin the Jayhawks have a lot options they can use and we saw what they are capable of when all systems are a go against Villanova.  

Why UNC can cover

This team is hot and it is hard to really get a read on them through stats because of their terrible start to the season. This is an 8-seed playing like a 2-seed and 4 points just seems like a lot. 68 percent of the public is on Kansas -4 here but I think with Caleb Love playing out of his mind, Brady Manek being able to stretch the interior of the Kansas defense and Bacot pulling anything in Earth’s orbit UNC has a great opportunity to cover. 

The pick: UNC +165 ML