The focus here is primarily on first time starters. There are two with experience drawn towards the inside, and SUBJUGATION (#2) did run well on debut. I just thought he was mildly disappointing as the favorite when he came to this circuit last time.

UP TO THE TASK (#3) has been the workmate of Art Museum, who finished second on debut here last week with a 56 Beyer. He looked even better when he got away from that stablemate in his last drill, going best in company on Aug. 22. He has good win early pedigree, but Chad Brown is often overbet in these races.

I'm favoring the horses drawn towards the outside. MISSION INTEGRITY (#8) lacks the regal pedigree of some others in here, but he appears to be working well into his unveiling. Bill Mott is another who doesn't have the best stats with debuting 2-year-olds, but this ridgling has been outworking most of his company in the morning, including the filly Groves (2nd on debut, 55 Beyer) from the gate on Aug. 8.

BEAU VALOR (#6) was an expensive son of low-profile sire Beau Liam, but he has excellent sprint pedigree on the dam's side, being a half-brother to sprint stakes winner Kale's Angel. George Weaver tends to do better with his turf first time starters than in spots like this, but the workouts suggest this horse is ready for a big race. He has been training in company with some accomplished older horses like Enforced Agenda and Vekinda, more than holding his own.

EXHIBIT (#5) has a bit more of a turf pedigree and moves like one that may ultimately want that surface watching his morning trainer. Though, he has broken very sharply in his gate drills, so don't be surprised if this one has early speed.

I tentatively made CLUB REIGN (#7) my top pick since he feels like he could be the best price of those I'm considering. Whit Beckman is 7 for 43 (16%, $3.29 ROI) with 2YO first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. There isn't much pedigree here, but he looked quick in that 9 4/5 OBS drill, and it doesn't seem like he's been asked for his best in his local training for this.

SCULCOS FOLLY (#6) is expected to run here after he was scratched from the Robert Hilton at Charles Town on Friday night. He's obviously the horse to beat against this allowance group, and is cutting back to a distance that works much better for him after trying two turns in the New York Derby. He didn't even run that badly after getting involved in a racelong duel with Talk to Me Jimmy. I like that he's drawn towards the outside here, but there is plenty of other speed in this race for him to overcome.

If the pace really heats up, it should suit CALDO CANDY (#1). This horse didn't always want to pass horses, but he's adapted his running style to come from off the pace in recent starts. It looks like he should get the right setup here, and it doesn't hurt to pick up Flavien Prat.

My top pick is DR. KAPUR (#2), who got such a strange trip last time. He broke on top and then just seemed to back up through the pack, partly due to his rider showing no interest in holding his position. He actually was running on again late when finally set down, so it's not as if he got tired. It's unclear if he's quick enough to make the lead from the rail, and he probably is a horse who needs to be in front to have his best chance, so there are some reasons to be skeptical. Yet Tyler Gaffalione is a more aggressive rider than Jose Ortiz, and I would expect there to be a more of a plan to go forward with this horse. He's working better for this second start off the layoff, and he showed the talent to beat this field as a 2-year-old. He still has room to move forward, and any progression makes him a serious player.

The two main players in this state-bred allowance have opposing running styles. LIGHTNING STRIKE (#2) looks like the one to catch on the front end, but she should get some early pressure from a couple drawn to her outside. She's clearly good enough to win at this level, running a winning race when she held on for second after setting some quick fractions last time. I don't love that she was a regulatory vet scratch on July 31, missing a start, but she's obviously dangerous. I slightly prefer the style of LIBERTY'S SECRET (#8), who has finished strongly in both starts since returning as a 3-year-old. The issue with her is the start, since she tends to break a step slowly. Though, that shouldn't be as much of an issue with her drawing an outside post this time. Jose Ortiz climbs aboard, which may knock down her price a bit.

There is one alternative to this pair that I want to bet at a bigger price. I've been waiting for FEDUPWITHTHEFED (#3) to get back into a dirt sprint. I couldn't figure out why the connections ran her long on the turf when she first returned from a long layoff earlier this summer, and then kept her long even when switching back to dirt last time. The best race of her career was her maiden win sprinting on dirt where she closed stoutly from off the pace. I thought she ran well second off the layoff last time, but just looked like a filly in need of a turnback. She gets that here, and Donk can be dangerous turning around on relatively short rest.

I would regard KING'S REMARK (#5) as the one to beat in this first-level allowance, though I have some doubts that the value will be there with him picking up Jose Ortiz. He was a little disappointing at Monmouth two back, but I thought he ran a better race at this level last time when closing through traffic late. There's talent here, but he's had some issues at the starts of his races, and needs to break cleaner if he's to get a better trip. I still preferred him to INSTABILITY (#7), beaten as the favorite in that July 25 affair. I just didn't love the way he threw in the towel late, and I also wasn't thrilled with his first two starts where he may have appreciated give in the ground.

There is a lack of pace in this race, which could make IRON PALACE (#2) dangerous coming right back off his upset debut victory. He set an honest pace that day and was game to hold them all off. This is a step up, but he might not need to improve that much.

I think the class relief should really benefit PRINT (#4), who has faced tougher fields at the stakes level in each of his last two starts. He didn't get much of a setup in the Hall of Fame last time but was running on belatedly. He put in a similar effort in the Saranac, where he actually lost some momentum sustaining bumps at the top of the stretch before rallying on. He doesn't have to come from that far back, and I imagine Ricardo Santana will have him more involved here.

The wild card is ALTO BLUES (#8), who has finished well in his French races, but seems like one with a profile to go longer than this. He ran into a pretty talented rival last time. It may just be a starting point for him, but I do think he has some talent.

It's tough to get past CAROLINE ST. BEAT (#4) in this NY-bred allowance. He is dropping out of a pair of runner-up finishes in stakes events. The latter of those performances in the Rick Violette was coming off a long layoff and that race has proven to be quite strong. Chummers and A Little At First both returned to run well in another stakes with 87 Beyers, validating Caroline St. Beat's career-best speed figure. He's training great out of that race, and seems geared up for a step forward.

I'm not against the favorite by any means, but I do want to give SAMMY C NOTE (#8) another chance around two turns. He just ran out of real estate when closing over a mile in that allowance race last time. While he started his career sprinting, he has always looked like a horse that could go longer. He has a huge stride on him, and has finally learned to relax early in his races, something he struggled with when he first tried a route last fall. Jose Ortiz should fit him well with this new running style. Sammy C Note also possesses more tactical speed than many others in this field in a race that lacks much pace.

I don't want to dismiss HONOREE (#5), who did close very strongly into a moderate pace last time. I Just thought this might be a tougher spot, and his lack of speed seems like more of a concern here.

There's some buzz around one of the firsters in this affair. FOXIEST (#3) is a daughter of top sire Gun Runner out of the champion dam Covfefe, winner of multiple Grade 1 races and over $1 million. Her dam was a brilliant sprinter, and some of the speed appears to have been passed on to her foal. This filly has looked pretty strong in her morning training, easily getting the better of workmates in two gate drills on July 21 and August 8. If she runs to that training, she's going to be a handful. It also doesn't hurt that Brad Cox is one of the most reliably successful trainers with juvenile firsters at this meet.

However, Foxiest is going to be a very short price and there is often incentive to take a shot against buzzy firsters with so many players singling or keying them in their wagers.

There are three second time starters in this field, and all ran pretty well on debut. The one that I'm most confident will improve here is VIRABHADRASANA (#2). She basically lost all chance on debut when getting away a step slowly in that 10-horse field. Considering the start, she made a nice run while going very wide into the lane before flattening out. I expect her to be more involved early this time. I could also see improvement for BADITTUDE (#1), who got a wide trip first time out. Todd Pletcher is 18 for 55 (33%, $2.51 ROI) with 2YO maiden second time starters at Saratoga over 5 years.

The horse who I really want to bet trying to beat this favorite is QUELLA (#7). As I said earlier, I don't like taking these Chad Brown first time starters at short prices, but this one might actually be the longer price of his two runners in this race. She's been primarily training for her debut at Monmouth, which isn't a negative at all. She only got in two local workouts at Saratoga, and I saw the one on Aug. 23. She looked best in company with 3YO turf horse Counterintuitive, galloping out well. Good Magic is a good debut influence, and her dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner and $480k earner Renaissance Frolic. Some may be turned off by Luis Saez getting named here, but owner Amo Racing can be particular about which jockeys ride their horses so it might not mean much.

I would like BELLA KNOWS (#3) a lot more in this spot if she had even a little versatility to her running style. She was a good fast-closing fourth at this level against what seemed like a tougher field last time. She just doesn't possess any early speed, and it seems like she's going to be left with a lot to do once again in a race that doesn't feature much pace.

Chad Brown has entered a pair in here, of which I slightly prefer the layoff runner COUNTERINTUITIVE (#9). She was visually impressive winning her second start at Keeneland last fall. I don't know what's kept her away from the races for so long, but her tactical speed should make her dangerous. That's her advantage over stablemate SHELZAWA (#5), who hasn't displayed much gate speed in either U.S. start. She beat a pretty good rival in Nonconsecutivetrms last time, but this is still a step up to face winners for the first time.

The horse I want to bet is RIVER RIDE (#6). In my opinion, she got the toughest trip of anyone exiting that July 25 race at Saratoga. She was stuck 2- to 3-wide on the first turn and then got pushed out 4-wide while making her run around the second turn before going even wider and getting bumped in upper stretch. She flattened out late, but she really didn't run any worse than the top two finishers, who both saved ground. Now she lands in a race with a murky pace scenario, and I suspect Jose Lezcano is going to get back to the aggressive tactics that worked two back. She's one of the horses I’m most looking forward to betting on this entire card.

As we move into the stakes portion of the card, let me just state right off the bat that Mike Beer and I did horse-by-horse stakes previews of all of these races on the Daily Racing Form YouTube channel, so head there if you want to hear my thoughts on every horse in this Pick 6 sequence.

For wagering purposes, I'm not trying to beat ENGLISHMAN (#4). If he runs back to any semblance of his Woody Stephens performance he's going to be awfully tough for this field to beat. The turn of foot that he displayed from the quarter-pole to the 3/16ths pole was goosebump-inducing. He's only facing two serious rivals here after the scratch of Solitude Dude, and it's doubtful that this pace will heat up enough to sap his stamina. I have respect for Deep Flame and especially Local Knowledge, but Englishman is a tall mountain to climb. I'd single him and move on.

Perhaps this race does just come down to the top two from the Shuvee, of which like many I prefer FULLY SUBSCRIBED (#2). She put in a relentless rally to nail main rival SCOTTISH LASSIE (#4) on the wire. The latter may not have a much easier time of it towards the front end here, and Fully Subscribed appears to be thriving out of that last race based on video of her training.

I do see one potential alternative to these two favorites. NERAZURRI (#3) has to prove that she really belongs at this level after disappointing in a couple of prior Grade 1 attempts. Yet she didn't get ideal trips or rides in either the Apple Blossom or La Troienne. I think she's best when she can be forwardly placed, and she ran a career-best race when getting that kind of trip in the Lady Jacqueline two back. She got squeezed back soon after the start last time in the Molly Pitcher, which put her out of position early. She actually rallied on decently for third considering the trip. I believe she's better than she looks, and it was encouraging to see her outworking Silent Tactic when they hooked up in their final drills for this card. At the expected price, I could bet her to upset both favorites.

Maybe I unintentionally let my personal feelings influence this morning line a little because everyone's been telling me that I'm crazy making QUEEN OF HAWAII (#2) the favorite. Well, I certainly think she's the most likely winner of this race. I loved her winning return last time where she overcome a moderate pace and weaved her way through traffic to get up in time with a terrific stretch kick. I especially loved the way she visibly lengthened her stride when she saw daylight around the eighth pole. Her 87 Beyer and especially 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure are clearly the best numbers in this field, and it's not as if that improved effort off the layoff came out of nowhere. She had been a very good 2YO, winning a Group 3 in Ireland before coming to the U.S. If she drifts up from that 2-1 ML, it won't bother me at all.

Chad Brown obviously has the two main rivals. NAOMIS (#5) is the one with more upside as she makes her U.S. debut, but I find her French form a little tough to gauge. She did beat a Group 3 winner when she won that minor stakes two back, but her last win against Group 2 foes comes in a race that was dominated by longshots. I appreciate her relentless finishing ability and she has reportedly been training well. Though, she notably did miss a work three weeks ago. DEEP LEARNING (#4) also has credentials and ran well off the layoff in the Lake George. I just have some reservations about her turning back to a flat mile.

After the hugely impactful scratch of star sprinter Book'em Danno, this Forego becomes a far less interesting wagering affair. Some will still likely go with the controlling speed TIP TOP THOMAS (#1), but he's now going to be a very short price, probably under 2-1. I didn’t think he ran as well as the winner of his return race last time.

I'd much rather lean on SENIOR OFFICER (#6). This horse has never run a bad race, and seems to be improving with every start since returning for this 5-year-old campaign. He beat the track and race flow when he defeated the very sharp Contrary Thinking two back. Then last time he got steadied in traffic just as he was starting to build momentum at the quarter pole, and did well to regather himself to come back for the victory. He's a 7-furlong specialist and is drawn perfectly outside of the other speed.

I know it's not my style to pick the favorites in this kind of race, but I had trouble getting past the two likely choices here. WAYS AND MEANS (#7) has the best races of anyone in this field, and she's coming off a huge performance when running down Grand Job in the Bed O Roses last time. She's been given ample time to recover from that effort and has no issues getting 7 furlongs.

I just slightly prefer main rival ECLATANT (#12), especially if she's going to be a better price. She's drawn perfectly towards the outside, which is typically where you want to be at this 7-furlong configuration with a long run down the backstretch. I know she took a step backwards on speed figures in the Chicago last time, but that wasn't the ultimate goal for her. Brad Cox has said that was just a stepping stone between Grade 1 races, and she's going to be tough for even Ways and Means to handle if she runs back to her Madison effort.

I get that KILWIN (#2) offers some appeal racing second off the layoff, but she really needs some speed to stay in this race, and then put forth the best effort of her career. The same goes for BEAUTY REIGNS (#11) but at least that one figures to be a bigger price and has good foundation coming into this. Both are candidates to hit the board that I'll use underneath.

This Travers is a horseplayer's dream. It's a wide open race where legitimate cases can be made for almost every contestant. As the week has progressed, I've seen handicappers that I respect landing all over the place, and that's how it should be.

GOLDEN TEMPO (#9) has to be regarded as the horse to beat at this point. He's the one that is proven at this mile and a quarter distance, and he's been improving with each and every start. Some may be concerned about the layoff since the Belmont Stakes, but this has been the plan for a long time. Cherie DeVaux announced that he was skipping the Jim Dandy over two months ago on June 27. Since then he has gotten back into regular training and looks ready for a solid effort. Yet he is finally going to be one of the shorter prices, and there is always risk in trusting a deep closer, especially as the favorite.

RENEGADE (#5) might be Golden Tempo's equal in terms of raw ability, but is he as good as that main rival going 10 furlongs? I have my doubts. Whereas Golden Tempo is a grinder, Renegade's weapon is his turn of foot, which gets less powerful the farther he goes. I won't be shocked if he wins this, but I preferred others given the likely price.

I'm betting NAPOLEON SOLO (#3) in this Travers. I was hardly expecting to land on this horse when I started handicapping this race, but the more I looked the more he just jumped out at me. I don't expect the pace to be particularly fast, especially with his two main speed rivals having some distance concerns. John Velazquez is one of the best speed riders in the game and figures to establish a clear early advantage. Some might question the mile and a quarter, but I think any stamina concerns were put to rest when he won the Preakness so convincingly. He is the only horse in this field to have achieved three 120+ TimeformUS Speed Figures, whereas the rest of the field has just 3 of those combined. There's no doubt in my mind that he's good enough to win this, and he appears to be training as well as ever heading into this. He's my win bet, and I think anything around the 8-1 ML would represent significant value.

The other horse that I want to use are THE PUMA (#4) and, to a lesser extent, EMERGING MARKET (#1). The former was on my short list of contenders for the Kentucky Derby earlier this year, but the thing that held me back from picking The Puma then is the same thing that makes me a little reticent now. I'm just not convinced that he's a true 10-furlong horse. Yet if you can get past that concern, he makes a lot of sense here. He has the class, and got in a perfect prep last time. Emerging Market might be a little tougher to justify, but he did run better than the result would suggest when he was second with a very wide trip against allowance company last time. He lost shoes in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, so there have been some minor excuses. I think he has a chance to rebound here, but he needs his best effort and then some to take down this entire field. I'll primarily use this pair underneath and on backup tickets in multi-race sequences.

Perhaps it's just as simple as acknowledging that this N1X allowance affair didn't come up that tough for the level, so the step up into the big leagues may not be as significant as it looks for THAT'S HOW WE LOVE (#4). She was dazzling on debut at Monmouth, and it's not as if there was nothing of quality behind her. The runner-up Academia is the same Chad Brown trainee who was second to today's rival Tax Holiday by a neck when that one broke her maiden. That's How We Love trounced that one by over 8 lengths, and if she runs back to that debut speed figure she's going to win.

The only alternative that really intrigued me is THREE TO G (#2). She has to improve a bit to beat the favorite, but she was a good third behind the stakes-quality East Jabip two back at Keeneland. Then last time she was arguably best when getting a 4-wide trip around both turns. The barn is cold, but that's going to ensure that the price is fair enough.