David: 

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in this state-bred maiden opener. The lone runner with experience is tough to endorse, so the focus is on first time starters. #4 Belloro appears to be the likely favorite, probably going off lower than the 5-2 I pegged him at after being the worthy workmate of Sacred Goddess, who just won her debut on Thursday. Jeremiah Englehart is always dangerous with these types.

I'll take a small shot against him with #1 Shakti, who goes out for a barn that rarely wins on debut, with nothing but turf pedigree on the dam's side. However, Unified is a 13% juvenile debut sire and I really like the tape of this filly's last workout. She was educated to race in behind two older experienced stablemates, one of which is an allowance winner, and she split them to open up with a nice turn of foot when asked. She seems well prepared for the debut, and is unlikely to go favored due to the connections.

Mike: 

There are a few interesting newcomers in this field, but I am unlikely to bet this race. 

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Mike

Mike: 

I sided with the logical horses in this maiden claimer on turf and am not planning on having a bunch of money tied up in this race.

David:

The workout videos for first time starter #1 Naguile look pretty good for this level, particularly the turf work on June 27. I respect the two favorites with experience, but Miguel Clement hasn't been getting bet that strongly with first time starters, and he was part of an operation that did great work on debut even though his small sample of stats on his own say otherwise.

David: 

The two likely favorites are #3 Not for Hire and #5 Bosun, and I definitely prefer the former, who really stepped forward second off the layoff last time. No one was beating winner Waralo, but I thought Not for Hire stayed on well after chasing outside. Cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit him.

I'm using him, but the horse I really want to bet is #2 Courtly Banker. I know he won a stakes last summer going 1 1/16 miles, but that was a fluky performance over a boggy turf course where he set glacial fractions. I have never really believed this horse wants to go longer, and I much prefer his early sprint races to anything he's done since then. He's got the short, choppy strides of a sprinter, and recently has traveled well in his races before just coming up empty in the lane. The blinkers that have been added this year have really sharpened his speed, but it's made him pull early in his races, which is even less conducive to him getting those route distances. I think he will respond well to this turnback, and he should be a pretty generous price off his seemingly poor recent form. A price around 8-1 seems fair.

Mike: 

I agree that #3 Not for Hire is preferable to Bosun, and think he is the horse to beat. I'll try a different turnback in #8 Pay the Juice. He ran very well over this course and distance last summer when just missing despite getting forced in and bumped by a talented rival in the late stages. He then won his next start going short in a race rained off the grass. He has lacked finishing power since being stretched out in distance as a 3yo and might appreciate getting to go shorter in this spot. 

Mike: 

#5 Roswell probably should have cleared this condition last month when done in by a troubled trip over a very wet track. She earned Beyers of 95 and 92 over this track last year, before going off form and then getting time off. None of her six rivals in this spot have earned a figure higher than 82. She is the one to beat, but I thought the two 3-year-olds drawn to her outside were both more interesting from a wagering perspective. 

I like #6 Strong State and will try her at anything like her ML odds. I liked this filly last year, and her return from the layoff was a solid effort when putting in a good finish to run by allowance rivals. There appears to be enough pace in this race to give her a chance, assuming the track is playing fairly.

David:

I agree with Mike's take on #5 Roswell. She's the most likely winner, but she's going to get bet off that recent trouble line and strong past form. His top pick is one that I will use, though I'm still waiting for her to run a faster race.

I put #7 Claire's Run on top, and acknowledge that she's another who needs to get faster to beat this field. Yet she still has every right to do so in just the second dirt start of her career. She didn't beat much last time, but she looked pretty impressive doing so. She's bred to be a nice sprinter, and has shown some hints of real talent. This barn has posted impressive stats at Saratoga in the past, and I like the outside draw for a filly who doesn't have the best gate habits. All of that being said, I wouldn't want to go too much lower than 8-1 ML on her.

David: 

This wasn't the first choice for the connection of #1A Rhetorical, who got rained off the turf in a second-level New York-bred allowance last week. Now he's jumping two conditions to compete against this open second-level allowance field. That's obviously indicative of faith in this gelding's ability, and it's easy to see why based on the way he won his last race. I just can't get past the fact that he's beaten vastly inferior competition in his prior wins. Entrymate #1 Clear Conscience is a contender himself, but benefited from a perfect trip last time and will drag down the price.

I'm inclined to try to beat the entry, and two horses intrigue me. #2 Oh Really still has to prove he's quite good enough to win at this level, but he ran better than the bare result suggests last time, going wide without cover around both turns and still finding enough to win. He's had some time off since then, but is dangerous if he can step forward again.

The horse I'm most interested in betting is #4 Son of a Birch, especially if he's somewhere in double-digit odds territory. He has sprint form that makes him competitive at this level, and he got pretty good last summer, running competitively against some talented rivals such as Big Invasion and Senbei. They tried to stretch him out last time, and I didn't think he ran that badly considering his trip. The connections were obviously concerned about interfering with speedy stablemate Donegal Momentum, but they might have overdone the rating tactics. I still think he has some upside going this far, and he figures to work out a better stalking trip this time.

Mike: 

I wouldn't take the entry at a short price - particularly Clear Conscience - but don't like any of the alternatives enough to recommend a wager in this race. 

Mike: 

While I'm not completely convinced that #5 Unreasonable is going to be better going longer, I have to give her one more chance based on her first two starts over here. She appeared to need that first start back at Keeneland when making a four-wide move around the final turn before weakening in the final furlong. Whether she failed to improve or not last in her last start is hard to tell, as she was given no chance in that spot by her rider, who took her all the way back at the start and left her with way too much to do. 

David:

I can see where Mike is going with his top pick and gave her a long look before ultimately going elsewhere. It's not a clever opinion, but I do think #2 Curlin's Angel is the horse to beat. We missed our chance to get a price on her last time, but she won that race very convincingly and probably won't need to improve much on that effort to beat this field. Everything about her pedigree and physicality suggests that she should love this distance. She's just an obvious contender.

The horse I'll bet if the price holds up is #10 Celtic Charm. That 74 Beyer debut win as a 2-year-old would stack up well against this field when you factor in routine improvement now that she's returning as a 4-year-old. She probably should have won her second start at Turfway but got held up traffic at the quarter pole before angling in and finding room too late. I like the way she's improved with each of her recent workouts, and think there's still ability here. I just wouldn't want to go any lower than 4-1 given the obstacles she must overcome.

David: 

It's another two-year-old maiden even where the focus is on first time starters. I can't bring myself to get creative here as two of the more obvious firsters appear to have real ability.

I was splitting hairs between #3 Stradale and #8 Growth Equity when making my selections, ultimately putting the former on top because Asmussen has better statistics with these types than Chad Brown does. Growth Equity did look like he wanted to do a lot more in that fast gate drill on July 6, and he figures to be a handful if breaks cleanly. I just really liked some of the workout videos for Stradale from Keeneland, where he easily bested an overmatched mate on June 10. I wish I could have seem some of his more recent drills at the Spa, but I get the sense he's primed for a big effort. Nothing clever.

Mike: 

I don't have anything to add to the above. 

Mike: 

The recent graded stakes lines - and figures earned - probably make #9 Padiddle an underlay in here, but I still think he was a smart claim by these connections. They clearly had a plan with this horse when taking him for $25k and immediately getting him back on turf going long. He was impressive winning that first start going this distance, and has been in over his head since. 

David:

It's anyone's guess how the pace and trips shake out in this race with so little speed signed on. Ultimately, I decided not to concern myself too much with it. I agree with Mike that #9 Padiddle is the horse to beat, but I thought a couple of others could offer better value.

#8 Il Siciliano got some crazy trips over the winter at Gulfstream, but he often puts himself in a position to lose ground and make premature moves. I have little confidence that he'll get the right trip here, but I think he's among the most naturally talented horses in this field and he could be double-digit odds. Given that value proposition, I won't worry too much about the trip.

I also think #3 L'Antharis could be a good bet in this spot. He ran a race going this distance last summer that could beat this field and followed it up with another good effort at Aqueduct. I know it looks like he's lost his form, but he had less than ideal trips in all of his Gulfstream races. I don't mind the recent switch to Mike Trombetta, who figures to just drive up the price on a horse who drew better than many other contenders and has the tactical speed to get some position.

David: 

Mike and I recorded videos of all of these stakes on the DRF YouTube channel if you're looking for in-depth opinions on each runner.

In terms of wagering strategy, I thought there could be value in looking beyond the two favorites in what I believe to be a pretty wide open edition of the Caress. I wanted the two horses from the Intercontinental for whom I could project improvement. One of those is #4 Kairyu, who was unusually forward pressing Pipsy's pace last time before getting a little tired at the very end. That was her first start off a long layoff, and she figures to be tighter this time, while perhaps benefiting from a more patient ride. My ML price of 6-1 seems fair on her.

The horse I really want to bet here is #8 Time to Dazzle, who got the widest trip in the Intercontinental, chasing 3 to 4-wide without cover every step of the way. That's a trip that she's gotten a few times, but she actually did well to overcome it last time, just barely missing third while appearing to relish the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs. I could argue she ran nearly as well as the winner, who will be a much shorter price. I like the rider switch to a jockey who is usually more deliberate about saving ground. I think she's improved as a 4-year-old, and I should get the chance to test that opinion at a generous price.

Mike: 

I thought #6 Pipsy was better than some of the results made her look as a 3-year-old, and she has clearly improved this year. While she had all the best of it on the lead without early pressure in the Intercontinental last time, she also won that race convincingly, and she doesn't need that kind of trip to be effective. I'll also use #4 Kairyu and hope that Carmouche can work out a different trip for her this time. 

Mike: 

Not to give short shrift to #6 La Cara, but this race probably comes down to whether or not #1 Immersive improves from her belated 3-year-old debut. She'll be a short price, and I am happy to make her prove it.

If I bet the race, I will be taking a shot with #3 Scottish Lassie, who ran a fast race as a 2-year-old, and is now making her third start back after two good efforts with either dynamics or conditions - or both - working against her.  

David:

I've been a big fan of #1 Immersive for a while now, and I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for losing off the layoff. It's debatable how much the ride really cost her, but I just didn't like the indecision by Manny Franco in the early portions of that race. It put Immersive in a precarious position and I was encouraged that she still battled on late even in defeat. She's picked up the pace in her works since then, and I fully expect her to move forward here. If she does, I believe she'll win.

After the scratch of La Cara, I'll upgrade #5 Dry Powder underneath. Her Wilton performance was excellent considering the pace dynamics, and now she plays out as the lone speed.

David: 

My focus is squarely on the three horses exiting the True North, which was a far stronger race than it's Grade 3 designation. #5 Book'em Danno seems like a legitimate favorite after running well in all of his starts so far as a 4-year-old, culminating in that convincing True North win. My one slight concern is the cutback to 6 furlongs, since there is the possibility he could get outrun in the early stages. Yet he's generally been more forward since this jockey switch to Paco Lopez, so I don't want to make too much of that. #4 Mullikin is a horse I've tried a couple of times recently, and he's run well without winning. He could find himself in an advantageous position if main pace rival #1 Skelly fails to break well, which is a real possibility. Yet Mullikin is another who may be slightly better going just a tad longer than this.

I'll bet #8 Nakatomi if he's anywhere near that ML price. He was the beaten favorite in the True North, but he had a legitimate excuse, getting away slowly after throwing his head at the start. It's not the first time he's broken a step slowly, but that still seemed like a freak accident that I don't have to be too concerned about. Drawing outside should really benefit him, giving him an opportunity to go forward even if that first step away from the gate isn't his best. He is a 6-furlong specialist who won this race last year, and may be a fair price for the first time in a while.

Mike: 

I disagree that six furlongs is an advantage for Nakatomi over his two main rivals and just think both Book'em Danno and Mullikin might simply be better than him - the excuse for Nakatomi last time notwithstanding. It's also starting to get a bit troublesome that Nakatomi is now 1 for 12 in graded stakes sprinting on dirt in his career (1 for 14 if including the two trips to Dubai). The win did come in this race last summer, but he was facing a much weaker field that day. Without a clear-cut separation in price, I would take Book'em Danno right back in this race, as he has now faced Mullikin three times recently, and ran the better race each time. 

Mike: 

I liked the debut win by #3 Vekoma Rides quite a bit last year and want to bet him in the finale at a price. Following that impressive debut, he was entered in a pair of stakes races going a mile - and he ran fine both times. In his return from the layoff three weeks ago, Vekoma Rides was forced to chase a fast pace, before staying gamely to finish third behind two stakes-quality colts. Despite the size of the field, this looks like a much better spot.

David:

I wasn't a fan of Mike's top pick, but I also didn't have a clever take on this race. My top pick is #6 Stars and Strides, who isn't going to be any kind of interesting price. I just thought he was likely to beat a field that looked more competitive upon first glance than it did after doing a deeper dive. I know a couple of horses have come back out of that June 7 maiden race to disappoint subsequently, but I don't really care. Stars and Strides has worked very well since then, looking like he's ready to move forward rather than regress. He was tractable on debut, and there's plenty of pace to set him up here.