Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer provide their selections, analysis, and suggested wagers for Saturday, July 12, 2025, at Saratoga.
- Thursday evening: Top 4 picks for every race on the card
- Friday evening: Analysis of each race, suggested plays, and multi-race wagers
- Saturday morning: Final update for early scratches and changes (Any late changes after 11 AM on Saturday will not be reflected.)
Exclusive insights by David Aragona and Mike Beer | Selections, Analysis, Wager Suggestions
Exclusive insights by David Aragona and Mike Beer | Selections, Analysis, Wager Suggestions
6 - Time to Strike
2 - Curtain Call
4 - Tagermeen
1 - Throckmorton
2 - Curtain Call
4 - Tagermeen
1 - Throckmorton
6 - Time to Strike
David:
There's plenty of guesswork to be done in this opener, and I would recommend checking out the Clocker Report, since two of the most interesting horses in the race don't have much workout footage available. I suppose #4 Tagermeen will take money based on the sales price and his 9 4/5 workout. Personally, I didn't love the drill since he was so hard ridden to achieve the time. However, Steve Asmussen is very dangerous with his 2-year-olds and this one has to be respected.
#2 Curtain Call is the one with experience, and he met a good one on debut, chasing home subsequent Sanford winner Obliteration. I do wonder if turf might be in his future given the pedigree, but he's obviously a player with any routine second-out improvement.
I put #6 Time to Strike on top without much conviction. There's plenty of video of him working in Kentucky, and the workouts honestly give mixed signals. He's looked best in all of his drills in company, but it's hard to know if he's been paired with stablemates of much quality. Not This Time is an excellent debut influence, and Tom Amoss is underrated with first time starters, especially at Saratoga. He's 3 for 9 ($4.71 ROI) with Spa 2YO firsters in dirt sprints over the last 5 years.
Mike:
I picked the experienced #2 Curtain Call in a race that is going to be very intriguing to watch, with several interesting first-time starters signed on. No bets.
For Plays below, (D) = David, (M) = Mike
5 - Ginger Ale
1 - Spa Prospector
7 - Asking
6 - Atropa
2 - Jetty's Home
7 - Asking
3 - Fancy Footwork
5 - Ginger Ale
Mike:
I tend to lean away from first-time starters when possible, and without one that I found that interesting in here, I will take a shot with #2 Jetty's Home. She has plenty to prove, but there is some pedigree to work with, and she might have gotten a lot out of the debut run while gamely gaining late ground despite continuously lugging in through the stretch.
David:
I probably won't get involved in this race, lacking much of an opinion. #5 Ginger Ale got some positive comments on the Clocker Report when she was entered as an MTO last week, so I'm guessing she can run a little. She just probably goes favored. Between the two with experience, I preferred #1 Spa Prospector, who was very wide on debut. I just wasn't sure how strong that race was overall.
5 - Uncle Jim
7 - Jerry's Out
3 - Mega Magic
6 - Art Fair
6 - Art Fair
1 - Ranger Battalion
5 - Uncle Jim
David:
I found this to be one of the more difficult races on the card. I spent a while poring over the contenders and still don’t feel like I have a strong sense of how these runners coming in from various directions stack up against each other. I do think #7 Jerry's Out is the horse to beat in his current form, and the outside post position should be ideal for his style. He beat better rivals than he's facing here last time out, and just has to handle the cutback to 7 furlongs.
I had trouble assessing the quality of the races #6 Art Fair is exiting in Kentucky. I like his gate speed, and he's handled 7 furlongs. I just didn't feel like I wanted to take a short price on him, as everything Flavien Prat is aboard seems to be getting bet down so far at this meet.
The presence of that rival probably isn't great for my top pick #5 Uncle Jim, but I'm not convinced he necessarily needs the lead to win. He's making his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci and a dangerous ownership group. This team is 5 for 19 (26%, $3.48 ROI) off the claim together. He'll be a handful if he can recapture his better form, and I think the ML price would be fair.
Mike:
I respect the form that Jerry's Out is in, but I want the speed of #6 Art Fair in this race. His only poor race since returning to dirt this year came two back when hooked into a fast duel and paying the price. The other horse for me is #1 Ranger Battalion, who has run well in all three starts sprinting on dirt to this point, including the effort at Gulfstream in February when caught contesting the pace and only weakening late vs a strong MSW field (Crudo was 4th). He might prove to be a smart claim by Linda Rice.
7 - Lost in Rome
2 - Graywing
5 - Burninhunkoflove
8 - Conniving
2 - Graywing
7 - Lost in Rome
5 - Burninhunkoflove
Mike:
I don't know that I'll be getting involved here. My top pick is #2 Graywing who I thought deserved a pass for his most recent start when failing to break sharply from the gate, getting bumped back to last, and then racing wide to no avail. He has otherwise been racing in good form, and he proved that he can rate and run when defeating in-form 18-time winner Borracho (has won 8 of his last 15) back in March.
David:
I agree on the recent trip for #2 Graywing, and I'm also on board with Mike's suggestion that he'll probably have to rate in this spot, though I viewed that as a minor negative. There is a ton of speed in here, so I thought there was the possibility that the race could come apart.
#7 Lost in Rome is making his first start off the claim for connections that are probably unfamiliar to most players, but can send out winners from time to time. They even had a near 30-1 shot barely miss on opening day of the meet. Lost in Rome isn't the best gate horse, but that probably doesn't matter so much in a race with plenty of pace. He was off slowly and steadied on the backstretch last time, and still ran on. I'm expecting a better journey here.
11 - Certified Loverboy
14 - Accretive
7 - Magical Ways
5 - Resilience
5 - Resilience
11 - Certified Loverboy
7 - Magical Ways
12 - Light the Way
David:
There's nothing left to bet in this race after the surface change and scratches.
9 - Chrysalism
7 - Pulstar
6 - Delightful Darling
8 - Two Bits
7 - Pulstar
6 - Delightful Darling
2 - Three Sixty
9 - Chrysalism
Mike:
I prefer the experienced horses in this MSW turf sprint. Unfortunately, they are the three favorites on David's morning line. I don't see myself investing much in this race.
David:
I'll leave #9 Chrysalism on top since it's interesting that Graham Motion opts to leave this one in on the dirt, something he doesn't do that often. She actually has plenty of dirt pedigree, and I still believe she can improve on her debut where she ran off in the early stages.
2 - Malarchuk
9 - Bramito
4 - Drake's Passage
1 - Top Gun Rocket
9 - Bramito
7 - Society Man
4 - Drake's Passage
2 - Malarchuk
David:
I always try to find an interesting angle in races like this, but I just couldn't warm up to any of the bigger prices. #2 Malarchuk just seems pretty formidable off his last effort, where he was able to use his tactical speed as an advantage. I don't agree with him getting elevated to victory via disqualification since the upper stretch trouble was minimal. Yet I was still encouraged that he continued fighting on to the wire. He's clearly best when able to be forwardly placed, and he should have an opportunity to make the pace once again, drawing far better than others with early speed.
#4 Drake's Passage was off slowly last time and did some running after having to be used to get into position. I still am not totally convinced that he's regained his top form from earlier last year, but maybe he doesn't need to be at his very best to factor in this spot.
The other horse I think has a chance is #9 Bramito, but I loved him last time when he was first stretching out against a softer field at this level. He couldn't have gotten a better trip and won convincingly. However, now he's drawn in post 10, likely to get shuffled much farther back early. I think he's well suited to this distance, but I don't think he's going to offer the same value as last time.
Mike:
This race is more about the horses I don't like than the ones I (kinda) do. Last time might have been the time for #9 Bramito, but he still looked good winning that race, and I'll use him again, despite the drawbacks. #2 Malarchuk is the most likely winner, and #7 Society Man makes a lot of sense and is fairly priced on David's line. I have questions about the others.
7 - Far Bridge
2 - El Rezeen
6 - Harrow
3 - Tawny Port
7 - Far Bridge
2 - El Rezeen
5 - Webslinger
1 - Starting Over
Mike:
I spent quite a bit of time thinking about trying to beat favored horse-to-beat #7 Far Bridge before finally giving up the fight and putting him on top. I think #5 Webslinger is at least as talented as the favorite, but he is so often trip-compromised that I can't fully trust him, and it's not like he's going to be a great price. #2 El Rezeen is interesting as one that clearly improved with added distance as a 3-year-old. And he is also the only horse in this field with upside.
David:
I wasn't trying to beat #7 Far Bridge originally, but both of the interesting Casse-trained alternatives have scratched. I have little interest in betting this race now.
5 - Gilded Craken
10 - Common Defense
14 - Register
5 - Gilded Craken
10 - Common Defense
14 - Register
David:
Like many others on this card, this race has been torn apart by scratches after the surface switch. There's nothing left to bet.
8 - Runninsonofagun
4 - General Partner
2 - Twenty Four Mamba
5 - Scotland
7 - Illuminare
4 - General Partner
3 - Little Ni
8 - Runninsonofagun
Mike:
I can easily take a shot against the favorites in here, though that is just a place to start. Ultimately, I found this race to be too tough for me to get a handle on. It's a very good betting race for anyone who has a strong opinion, but that isn't me. I'll try to beat the favorites in multi-race wagers with horses like #3 Little Ni, #7 Illuminare, and #8 Runninsonofagun.
David:
I really haven't been a fan of #4 General Partner since he's returned as an older horse, but his last race did demonstrate some significant progression, and I have been pretty encouraged by his workouts since then. I'm still not going to lean on him at a short price, but I do think he's the one to beat.
Among the logical players, the only horse that I really don't want is #7 Illuminare. I didn't like the way this horse tailed off at Gulfstream, and his workouts for this return don't instill much confidence that he's about to return to form.
I put #8 Runninsonofagun on top as a value play, and I could make the case that he's a good bet at anything around 6-1 or higher. He held form through the winter that makes him highly competitive with the favorites here. His last race was a little disappointing, but he's been freshened since then, and now gets reunited with Joel Rosario. This trainer isn't known to many players, but he had been an assistant for John Toscano, and got his first winner on opening day.
2 - Choisya
5 - Dynamic Pricing
1 - She Feels Pretty
4 - Excellent Truth
1 - She Feels Pretty
5 - Dynamic Pricing
2 - Choisya
4 - Excellent Truth
David:
Mike and I recorded a video on the DRF YouTube channel where we discuss this race in depth. I recommend you check that if you want our thoughts on each runner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvTdBe_U5co
I'll just elaborate on my wagering strategy here. For better or worse, I'm taking a shot against #1 She Feels Pretty at the expected price. I'm just not quite convinced that her edge is as great as some others believe it to be, and I think she could be an underlay.
The best value lies with #2 Choisya, and she's the horse I really want to focus my play around. Players are sure to jump off the bandwagon based on that disappointing Just a Game result, but I think she had a valid excuse and can bounce back. Since I didn't mention it in the video, I'll also add that I love the way she's been training up here since that race. The strong rains that have come this morning probably don't help her chances, but she'll be a fair enough price to take a shot anyway.
The other horse I want to use prominently is #5 Dynamic Pricing. I made some money with her last time at a bigger price, so I don't feel so compelled to go back to her here. She did get a great trip to win that Grade 1, but she also seems like a horse that's progressing at the right time. If I'm right that the public is going to go back to her stablemate again, she very well may be a fair price again even coming off that Grade 1 win. All of my wagers will key around one or both of these.
Mike:
I won't argue with any of the points made above, but I doubt I'll be putting much money in against the favorite in this spot.
6 - Girls Rock
4 - She Wants War
9 - Gellhorn
11 - Cara's Chianti
4 - She Wants War
9 - Gellhorn
11 - Cara's Chianti
6 - Girls Rock
David:
Ditto the comments in earlier races about these off the turf affairs being nearly uplayable. #6 Girls Rock is probably better than her prior two dirt results going this shorter distance so I'll give her the slight nod.