David:

I don't have much interest in getting involved in the opener. It's not one of the more interesting maiden races on this card, at least to me. If I had to make a push for anyone it would be #9 Jolted. He found himself chasing a pretty quick pace that fell apart on debut, and also raced wide in doing so. He's getting blinkers this time, and I thought he could be dangerous showing more speed here under Kendrick Carmouche.

Mike: 

I guessed with a firster here, which probably tells you all you need to know. Not that I didn't find things to like about #4 French Knight, but I have no interest in trying to talk anyone into betting real money on him.

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Mike

Mike: 

I had thought Jack's World flashed potential in his debut, but he is scratched.

I expect #8 Twirling Lad to improve getting to turf, which is the surface he is bred for. De Paz's other horse, #10 Time to Roll, also has a lot of pedigree, but his gapped work tab concerns me.

David: 

I landed on the De Paz firster #10 Time to Roll for a couple of reasons. The one glimpse I got of his workout on Aug. 10 made a very positive impression. He held his own with the stakes-placed 3-year-old Yougottahavehope. He was asked a bit more during the drill, but appeared to gallop out best. This is also an excellent pedigree, with Not This Time being a superb debut and turf influence and the dam herself being a turf debut winner. The lone sibling also won on debut.

I also don't want to completely dismiss #3 Diliello. I don't typically like turf stretch-outs, but this colt is absolutely massive and has a huge stride on him for a 2-year-old. He definitely fits the physical profile of one that wants more ground.

David:

There's a case to be made for just about everyone in this competitive NY-bred allowance optional claimer. #5 What's Up Bro is obviously dangerous right back at the same level after winning against a similar field earlier this month. However, I don't love horses claimed off Linda Rice, and his form is about as exposed as it's ever going to be. There's also other speed in here to keep him company up front.

I'll use that one, but the horse I really want to bet is #4 Ten Cent Town. Unlike the other speeds in this race, he has shown the ability to be effective stalking, so I'm not as concerned about the early pace scenario. He ran so well last time, contesting a fast pace every step of the way, and holding on best of the speeds as the race was dominated by a pair of closers. He's now making his first start for a barn that has been quiet lately, but can be quite dangerous off the claim.

Mike: 

I'm mildly concerned that #3 Trust Fund was listed as a vet scratch a few weeks ago, but I do like his recent races, particularly when placed in the light of his form as a 2yo, which was, unfortunately, followed by an extended layoff. I think he can go with these horses, and he has the right running style. 

Mike: 

I tried #2 Bonus Move last time and wasn't thrilled with his effort. He did get bumped at the start, then had some trouble finding a lane in the stretch, but I was a bit disappointed. My initial take on this race was to try someone else, but I was led to #5 Creditworthy, and I really don't want to bet him as the favorite on David's ML. 

The other horse for me is #4 Urban Legend, and I probably should have taken a shot with him on top. I don't love his last race, but he has others that will give him a chance here at a price. His rider just has to time it right, because he possesses a very brief burst when produced. At least this rider is familiar with him. 

David: 

Unlike Mike, I was first inclined to go back to #2 Bonus Move after liking him in each of his last two starts. I didn't like the rides he got either time, and I think this is a positive rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who is more effective in turf sprints. Yet in rewatching his Aug. 2 race, I came away preferring another horse. Winner Run Curtis Run rallied from last to first in that spot, and there was a pretty contested pace up front that benefited his style.

You typically want horses who raced against the flow in those scenarios, and #1 Final Verdict was not only on top of the pace but he was chasing 3- to 4-wide every step of the way. He has had the misfortune of drawing outside posts in all of his recent starts and therefore has been prone to wide trips. He's finally getting an inside draw, and he has the speed to get position here under savvy rider Ricardo Santana. I think he's the right horse to take this time.

David:

I'm not usually inclined to endorse horses like #3 Scythian who are returning from a layoff and switching to a different surface. I was actually all ready to be way against her when I started looking at this race. Then I pulled up her workouts, and quickly lost much interest in trying to beat her. This looks like a different horse than the light, leggy filly we saw last year. She's filled out in her frame and musculature, and appears to be training better than ever over the dirt. Her recent drills are fast on the clock, and even more impressive on video. She even outworked proven dirt horse Dubyuhnell in a recent drill.

I thought #2 Tough Street was her main rival, and I don't have much interest in betting her as her form is tailing off. I'm not really interested in betting this race, but I do think Mike might convince me to use #8 Midtown Lights.

Mike: 

I like Scythian here, as well, for all of the reasons noted above. The other horse for me is #8 Midtown Lights. She might not be good enough, but this is her distance, and she did appear to be prepping last time when taking back from the start to get over, and then just riding the rail while not being hard-used sprinting. 

Mike: 

This is the first, and stronger, division of split MSW races for 2-year-olds going seven furlongs. #1 Stradale will likely attract much attention once again after enduring quite a bit of trouble in his unlucky debut. Maybe he'll just win, but I'm trying to beat him. 

I won't be trying to do it with #3 Accost, who ran fine in his debut to finish a closing second with a 76 Beyer. I want the other horse entered back here out of that race, #6 Further Ado. This well-bred colt got bet that day, but he was atypical of most first-time starters from this barn in that he looked green all the way around the track, even drifting in badly in the stretch and causing Irad to stop riding briefly. He appeared to really need that experience, has breezed three times since, and can improve quickly. 

I was torn between taking him or #7 Souper Caliber on top. I'm definitely using him. but I see David likes him as well so I'll let him make the case.

David: 

I agree with Mike on #1 Stradale. He clearly has talent, but I'm sure the connections didn't want to see him draw the rail here given the way he broke on debut.

I'm not nearly as against #3 Accost. I think he comes out of a pretty strong race, and I liked the relentless rally he put in. Chad's two-year-olds often need a race up here, and he might have a forward move in him. I agree that #6 Further Ado was green first time out. Some might remember that he even held up the start for a significant amount of time refusing to go in the gate that day. I generally don’t like to see that for trainers like Brad Cox, who puts his youngsters through extensive schooling.

I put #7 Souper Caliber on top because his debut on turf felt like nothing more than a prep. He obviously wants to go longer distances, and Mark Casse will sometimes start horses out on turf rather than a dirt sprint if they have route profiles. The stats back that up. Mark Casse has compiled a record of 30:5-8-2 (17%, $4.95 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from turf to dirt over the last 5 years. He got very rank first time out but finished well. He's a half-brother to very good dirt horse Dennis' Moment, and worked well on dirt out of the debut. I think he'll improve here.

David:

I had trouble seeing past the two favorites in this Prioress. #3 Delightful Claire was visually impressive when she broke her maiden, and that time generated some massive speed figures. A repeat of that performance will make her tough, but Phil Bauer doesn't have the best stats off maiden wins, and these connections did lose this race with an odds-on favorite that had the same profile last year. I can't say that I love main rival #5 Long Neck Paula, but I did view her as a slightly more trustworthy option and put her on top. I tried to make a case for #4 Stone Smuggler off the layoff, but she would have to improve significantly if the top two show up with their best efforts.

Another race that doesn't do much for me from a wagering standpoint.

Mike: 

Not very interested in playing against the favorites. I do think #6 Praying could be interesting at a price, but the speed to her inside might make things hard on her. 

Mike: 

This is the second division, and most of these horses are debuting in this spot. It's not my kind of race, and I won't be betting it. 

David: 

Concise! I'll offer just a little more. #6 Dragones feels like the next hot 2-year-old from the Asmussen barn. They obviously paid quite a sum to acquire him, and his workouts have impressed me. He showed natural speed in that solo gate drill on Aug. 13, and followed it up with a solid 5 furlongs where he was clearly going better than his mate. He could take some beating here.

I just have to bet #10 Grittiness as he returns for his second start. Readers may recall that I liked this horse first time out, but acknowledged that he would probably want more ground. That's exactly how he ran, as he lacked early speed, but was staying on well late despite being guided right into the kickback to take plenty of dirt through the stretch. He's bred to run all day, and I really like the way he's been working out of his debut. The outside post suits him, and he's getting an extra furlong here.

David:

Things get a little more interesting in this first-level allowance. I suppose there's an argument for just conceding the race to likely favorite #4 Shoot It True, who was visually impressive when she made her turf debut last time. However, that was a much weaker field than this one, and she hasn't been a horse that has put top efforts back to back in the past. I acknowledge that she's dangerous, but I thought she was worth taking on.

A few of the key players exit that August 2 race at this level won by She's Go Will. #3 Tales of the Heart and #5 La Salvadorena ran fine, but their efforts hardly made he want to bet them back here.

I recall Mike had some interest in #10 Soloshot that day, and I couldn't quite see it at the time. In retrospect, I think he might have been right about her. She ran a lot better than her 6th-place result suggests, since she lost ground chasing 3 to 4-wide on the turn and was still finishing with interest in the last furlong. She has to get a better trip here to be more effective, but I thought she was worth upgrading again at a square price.

Mike: 

I looked at this race for a long time before settling on #4 Shoot It True. All of her races are good and, even though I wasn't sold on her trying turf last time, she sure appeared to handle it while dominating that field on her own power. 

#6 Granka is interesting as a rebound candidate. She might have beaten a bad field first out, but she did it easily while showing speed. She was only 8/1 against a few of these same rivals last time, but lost all chance when totally blowing the start.

Mike: 

#4 La Mehana seems to be in career-best form right now, but I still think she is dressed up a bit off her big-figure win in the Glens Falls. She appeared to really relish that soft ground on 7/27 (that was the only race that was left on the grass), while her main rivals did not. She is good, and has other races that make her a strong contender here, but I don't need a short price on her. 

I'm betting #8 Bellezza. This filly arrived with good form from Ireland earlier this year, and she was ready off the bench when dominating the Sheepshead Bay in her stateside debut over this distance. She has been over two boggy turf courses since and might be set to rebound back over firmer ground.

David: 

We generally agree on the two Clement fillies who will take money. #4 La Mehana is legitimate if perhaps a tad overrated, and #8 Bellezza is supposed to appreciate getting back on firm ground.

I just have an idea with an alternative. #2 Amber Cascade is a very interesting acquisition by Mike Maker, who claimed her for Flying P for $80k. Even though she had only run on dirt, he immediately switched her to grass and she produced one of the best efforts of her career. She got a very good trip, but still outran her 38-1 odds to just miss against stakes company. That was going a mile, but she is bred to relish this added ground. She's a half-sister to a hurdler that runs over 2 miles, and the dam is a half-sister to multiple marathon stakes winner Delosvientos. Any horse who has the stamina to go 9 furlongs on dirt can get 11 furlongs on turf, and I think she might be sitting on another improved effort here.

David:

Mike and I did a horse-by-horse preview of this race on the Daily Racing Form YouTube that might be worth checking out if you want our in-depth analysis of each horse. For wagering purposes, my main strategy here is to throw out #4 Mythical from all of my wagers. This isn't the kind of horse I want to bet when these stakes events start to get tougher into the late summer and fall. #5 Percy's Bar also falls into that category, though I do like her races a bit better, and her recent workouts suggest she may have improved since the spring.

ML favorite #8 Tommy Jo is strictly the horse to beat and I don't really have any major knocks against her. I just don't expect her to be much of a price.

With the scratch of my original top pick, I will upgrade #6 Sina. This half-sister to Grade 1 winner Alva Starr hasn't earned particularly fast speed figures, but she did show some impressive early speed on debut before gamely hanging on for second. She beat an overmatched field at Delaware last time in slow time, but she has a right to move forward off that confidence builder. Some speed has scratched out of this race, and she's drawn well outside of main pace rival Mythical.

Mike: 

I didn't go against likely favorite Tommy Jo. Watching this one more than betting it, but for multi-race purposes, it is mostly 5 and 8 for me.

Mike: 

I'm probably wrong about slight ML favorite #7 Whatchatalkinabout, but I have never been able to warm up to him, and want to bet someone else here. 

I prefer #4 Surveillance to him, though I also know that he can be had. And it's not like there is a ton of value with him.

I picked #8 Victory Way, but will probably bet through this race, using him and #3 Locke and Key, along with some #2 Rookie Card, while trying to beat the favorites.

David: 

This race didn't do much for me. I just don't have a strong opinion on how to separate the contenders. I put #4 Surveillance on top because he's reliable and often underrated. There's nothing particularly interesting about his form, but he is getting minor class relief and clearly fits at this level. #2 Rookie Card will be dangerous if he gets loose up front, but that's dependent on how much speed the Ward runner displays. I also considered #3 Locke and Key, but I do wonder if he's in a little over his head at this level. I would try to get through with some combination of those three.

David:

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this finale, sending out two logical contenders. I thought both got very good trips in their recent starts, so I don't see anything particularly clever about either of them. They can obviously win, but I wanted to focus on others.

If you like #5 Debt Limit at all out of that July 20 race won by the talented Then, you're supposed to also upgrade #6 Ramblin' Wreck, who figures to be a much better price. Not only was this gelding returning from a significant layoff in that spot, but he got completely blocked in traffic when attempting to make his run through the stretch. There should be pace in this race for him to close into once again, and he has plenty of races from last year that would make him tough in this spot.

My top pick is #10 Without Caution, who figures to be the best price of those I was considering. I know he's light on turf speed figures, but this horse did run a couple of pretty good races as a 2-year-old. His debut up here was promising, and he actually put in a very nice effort when fourth against a tougher allowance field last November at Churchill. He got a wide trip that day, and was still fighting it out at the end. He ran poorly in one start over the winter, but he seemed to get back on track when he returned last month. While he actually has more dirt in his pedigree than it might appear at first glance, it was still a surprise that his turf-inclined runner ran so much better on dirt. He also didn't have the smoothest trip, getting sandwiched between horses in the stretch. He doesn't figure to take money much with this rider aboard, and I think he has upside going back to turf.

Mike: 

I agree with David regarding the Chad duo. I'm betting #2 Candytown. I thought this colt ran a good one in his career debut despite showing some greenness in the late stages that might have cost him, and that was against a good field. He won his next start on the grass impressively while clearly moving forward, then was away for about four months. He was compromised by his outside post last time, as Saez seemed intent on sending for the lead, only to get caught wide on the first turn when others went for the lead inside of him. He moves inside for this and might be a lot better than he looks.