David's Analysis: 

I have little interest in the opener after the surface change and scratches. #3 Insubordination has no dirt pedigree, but he's been working well and it's interesting that George Weaver sees fit to leave him in.

Mike's Response: 

I have little to add to this. David identified the firsters that I found interesting, including my top pick, #5 Concord Green. I just thought there was more to hold on to with him than with the others, and he is likely to be a fair price. I also saw all the same things with #1 Sam's Rocket and want to use him.

(D) = David's wagers; (M) = Mike's wagers

Mike's Analysis: 

There are three 2-year-olds with race experience in this field. While #4 The Toner exceeded par for this kind of race when third in a similar race here two weeks ago (the fourth straight time he has hit the board without winning), I was much more interested in the other two. 

#7 Corvus and #9 King's Leap debuted in the same race back on July 12, where they finished close together in fourth and third. Corvus entered that race with a limited work tab, and he was conservatively ridden early in that spot before putting in a solid late run to gain some ground. He also galloped out well past the wire. Being inside was an advantage for him, but he looked like a horse that really needed a race and I am expecting him to improve on Saturday.

I have no problem with the race King's Leap ran that day and also want to use him, though his trainer does tend to have his first time starters ready to go. 

David's Response:

Mike and I have a similar view of The Toner. We looked at some of the same horses exiting that July 12 maiden, of which I preferred #9 King’s Leap. I thought this horse had a much more uncomfortable trip than Corvus, as he got cut off and shuffled out of position on the backstretch before making a relentless rally from the far turn into the lane. I suspect he can be more forwardly placed from this outside draw.

David's Analysis: 

#1 Deck of Cards is so much a ‘last time was the time’ type, getting dismissed at 9-1. I don’t mind some added distance for her, but now her form is exposed and she basically has to repeat that effort against a tougher field. The problem is that she is the lone speed on paper, which might make her too tough for this field to handle. Perhaps Linda Rice will use #5 Cinderella's Cause to apply some early pressure as she leaves both halves of her uncoupled pair in the race.

#8 Movie Moxy still seems like a viable alternative as she wheels back on short rest. Linda Rice does very well with these quick turnouts, and she was somewhat against the flow and track bias when she competed last Wednesday. I don’t love that she wins so rarely these days, but her form makes her a contender.

My top pick is #7 I’m Buzzy. Though she was beaten nearly 7 lengths by Deck of Cards last time, I thought she might have run just as well as that winner in defeat. That track was kind to forwardly placed runners, especially those that rode the rail, and she did well to close outside in a race that otherwise was dominated by inside runners. She’s been so consistent over the past few months, and I can make pace or bias excuses for a few of her losses. She figures to be the right price in this spot, and I expect her to run well again with Prat retaining the mount.

Mike's Response: 

I won't go on and on here, as I found it hard to get past the favorites in the third.

I thought #3 Batucada was actually well-spotted here, and while she has had very good trips in her races, it's not like she doesn't have more than a race or two that make her tough in here. She actually won three of the first four starts of her career, including a victory over Zeitlos over this distance on debut. I also appreciate her versatile running style. Yes, she had a perfect trip into a fast pace when winning that stake on synthetic. When she won on dirt prior to that she did it right on the lead. 

As for alternatives, I know Movie Moxy can easily win here but the more I looked at her the less I liked her. I'm Buzzy might be a more interesting alternative, or perhaps #5 Cinderella's Cause. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I wasn't thrilled with the two ML favorites in this race and wanted others. #3 Silent Melody has the right running style from an inside draw, and I think cutting back to a mile (on turf) is going to help her in this spot. I did not love her most recent turf start, but she appeared to just be grinding over that longer distance. There should be a good trip coming from this inside draw and she will not be too short of a price.

The other horse for me is #2 Dusk, who has speed from the inside, and plenty of pedigree on the bottom to handle this stretch out. She looked good breaking her maiden when finally getting a turf race to go at the end of last year, and she did not have the best of trips in either of her two starts this year.

David's Response:

#12 Call Her Bluff is the horse to beat as she seeks her fourth victory in a row. I do wonder how long she can continue this steady ascent, but she's not facing a field with much dirt form. #7 Elliptic looks like the main rival off her competitive dirt speed figures two and three back. Last time she got a wide trip, but she will have to run better second off the claim for William Morey.

David's Analysis: 

This is the first of two divisions of 6-furlong maiden special weights for the 2-year-olds. This heat features 3 runners who are likely to dominate the wagering. One of those is the experienced #8 I Got Game, who finished a good second to next-out Bashford Manor winner Politicallycorrect on debut. He then got a tough trip in his second start, the same race from which the similarly troubled Innovator returned to finish a good second up here. This horse was very impressive in a recent drill at Saratoga and I expect him to run well.

Yet there are a couple of first time starters in the mix who appear to have ability. #6 Classicist, as his name suggests, is bred to run classic distances, being by Curlin from the damside lineage of Breeders’ Cup winners Storm Flag Flaying, My Flag, and Personal Ensign. He’s looked slightly best in company in all of the drills available on video, but it is fair to wonder if he’ll be at his best going 6 furlongs on debut for Todd Pletcher.

#7 Sea Vista seems little more convincing as a sprint debut winner. He easily outworked Immersive on July 12, one of the reasons why that filly didn’t take much money she won her debut up here two weeks ago. That obviously flatters this son of Street Sense, who is out of Grade 2 winner Sara Louise, making him a half-brother to graded stakes-placed Nash. I won’t be surprised when he does something special at first asking.

I’m not viewing either of these back-to-back maiden heats as great betting races, but I’m still looking forward to watching how they play out.

Mike's Response: 

#7 Sea Vista was the firster I preferred, as well. But I am happy to lean on the experienced #8 I Got Game in this race. As noted above, he ran well into that subsequent stakes winner on debut - after having to give away early position to get clear - then had a no-chance trip in his second start. 

I also thought #3 Tiger Twenty Four was interesting as a new face. He appears to be training very well up to this, and he is likely going to get overlooked a bit in here. 

Mike's Analysis: 

I couldn't get a handle on this field of mostly first time starters and am hoping David can offer more insight - we can usually count on that. 

I picked the experienced #5 El Prestigio, but have little interest in this race from a wagering perspective. 

David's Response:

I found this maiden heat to be more confusing than the 5th. #4 Praetor looks like the horse to beat based on his July 14 gate drill, where he was a touch best in company with Incentive Pay, who won his debut here a couple of weeks ago. This colt has a strong dirt sprint pedigree and is expected to run well. There’s just little upside to taking Chad Brown with a hyped firster at this meet.

Between the two Todd Pletcher trainees, I gave preference to #2 Contrabandist. I don’t know if this horse is a win-first-out type, but I like the way he’s been finishing off his workouts and galloping out, as if the 6 furlongs will be no issue. #9 Antietam appears to have more speed, but he was second-best to Classicist (runs Race 5) in his last gate drill.

The wild card is $1.3 million purchase #1 Ferocious. That’s a lot of money to pay for this pedigree, but he did seem fast when working a furlong in 9 4/5 despite cross-firing through that drill. Gustavo Delgado can win with a firster and there appears to be ability here, but he will have to overcome the rail draw.

THIS RACE HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

Mike's Analysis: 

The Test goes through #4 Ways and Means, stepping back up in class after burying weaker in fast time when last seen during the Belmont Stakes Festival over this track. If I'm being honest, I've never liked her quite as much as everyone else seemingly does, though I do recognize that she might simply be better than this field. 

I am taking one shot against the favorite with #2 Denim and Pearls. This filly looked quite good winning her first two races last year, particularly the second start over a one-turn mile when traveling strongly throughout and setting things quickly when asked. She didn't stretch out effectively at Oaklawn, and was given a couple of months off before returning to sprint at Keeneland in April. She could hardly have been more impressive that she was winning that Beaumont with another powerful run from stalking range. I'm going to give her the wet track excuse for that last one, where she never got into position and failed to make any kind of serious run. She appears to be training strongly up to this and will be a fair price.

David's Response:

I view #4 Ways and Means as a likely winner here. It’s pretty easy to make excuses for all of her losses since that debut up here, and she appears to be landing in a great spot to finally pick up a Grade 1 victory. I preferred her to both Brad Cox fillies. I suppose I can give #2 Denim and Pearls the wet track excuse, but I wish I liked her form prior to the Beaumont, which was an extremely weak field in retrospect. I think #1 Emery is more dangerous in her current form, but I don’t expect her to be a great price either.

I put #5 My Mane Squeeze on top, recognizing that she needs the favorite to take a step backwards to win here. Yet I don’t view her as some horse that needs a wet track to be successful. Her Eight Belles was right in line with her best one-turn races in New York, and I think she’s proven that she just has some distance limitations when they’ve stretched her out. She’s cutting back to the right distance, and her best races put her in the mix as the likely fourth choice.

David's Analysis: 

Unfortunately, this race has been taken off the turf. I wouldn't try to beat the two horses with proven dirt form, #10 Film Star and #3 Swifture.

THIS RACE IS CANCELLED.

David's Analysis: 

I view #3 National Treasure as the most likely winner of this Grade 1 Whitney. He’s running the fastest speed figures coming in here, and it’s fair to say that a few of his performances are even better than the results suggest due to fast paces. That was certainly true of the Pegasus World Cup, and even the Met Mile featured some pretty quick early fractions, especially considering that Wilson Chute has a very minimal run-up.

However, he’s 9-5 on my ML, and I don’t really think he stands to win this race more than one-third of the time. He’s the divisional leader by default because no one else has really stepped up to the plate. Now he’s landing in a highly competitive field where there is plenty of other speed drawn to his outside. He figures to get an aggressive ride from Prat, but a stiffly run 9 furlongs is always going to put his stamina to the test. I’m definitely using him, but I think others offer better value.

I’m zeroing in on two alternatives, and both are trained by Todd Pletcher. The more obvious is #9 Bright Future, who got in a prep last time at Monmouth, overcoming a lack of focus on the far turn to win going away against overmatched rivals. He really came to hand at Saratoga last summer, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I am slightly concerned that he showed that same tendency to disengage mid-race in last year’s Breeders’ Cup, so there’s a mild concern that it’s becoming a habit. Yet he’s clearly dangerous with a step forward second off the layoff.

I made #7 Crupi my top pick, and he might look like a bit of a stretch to some handicappers. However, I think his form starts to look more competitive with this field when you begin to take his races apart. He was going to finish a clear third in last year’s PA Derby before getting ridden into traffic. He overcame a tough trip, including significant early trouble, to win the Queens County last year. He then validated that form in the Pegasus World Cup. Returning from overseas, his Suburban win wasn’t a fast one, but he was much the best that day, overcoming a speed bias to win while closing into a moderate pace. And while he was no match for Next in the Brooklyn last time, his performance in that race has been underrated. That was a highly unfavorable race flow for a horse with his style, as Next sprinted home off rated fractions, and Crupi still put in a game run to close from last into that slow pace.

This horse is in career-best form right now, and he’s finally landing in another race that is supposed to feature an honest pace. He’s run some of his best races at Saratoga in the past, and is going to be a price for top connections.

Mike's Response: 

I like #3 National Treasure anyway, and I am not so sure the pace of the Whitney is going to be that fast. At least, I don't really see any other confirmed speed in here. Looking at the TFUS Pace Projector, National Treasure is clear at the pace call, and the three horses they have closest to him do not look like serious early challengers to National Treasure's kind of speed - at least to me. Arthur's Ride maybe will have to take an early shot from his outside draw, though I doubt that they want him dueling while taking this step up in class.

The pace will be legit either way, as National Treasure isn't one to back down the numbers. He is the clear horse to beat and I am not way against him.

After trying him several times last year and failing to make money, I had sworn off #2 Disarm this year and really didn't think I would ever get back to him. His first two starts this year don't necessarily inspire confidence leading up to the Whitney, but I do think there are reasons to give him one more shot at a price.

First of all, despite not winning any of the major 3-year-old races last year, Disarm ran well in all of them. And did so despite almost never catching quick paces in front of him. He is inside for the Whitney, and it is also worth noting that after racing in a bar shoe in his first two starts this year, he is not going to race with it on Saturday. 

This is a solid Whitney field and there are other good horses in here, but I didn't really want to bet any of them. I'll take my chances with the 2 and the 3.

Mike's Analysis: 

This entry-level allowance for filly sprinters pulled a solid field, led by class-dropping #2 Striker Has Dial, who has only started three times yet owns the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field. She earned that 89 Beyer two back when getting dusted by Test favorite Ways and Means going a mile - she raced on well in that spot to finish clearly second-best after proving to be no match for that heavy favorite. She returned in the Wilton three weeks ago and ran well once again while attacking a fast pace before weakening late. I expect her to be tough in here cutting back to seven, though she appears to have some other speed to deal with once again. 

I want to stay positive on #10 Mystifying and use her at a price. I thought this filly showed surprising speed when winning on debut back in January with a 68 Beyer. She was not aggressively ridden when trying this condition for the first time two months later, and she appeared to react badly to kickback early in that race. She has gone back to the drawing board again for Shug and returns with blinkers on, and I think she might have some talent. 

David's Response:

I also have respect for #2 Striker Has Dial, but I think we’ve missed the opportunities to get decent prices on her now that her form is exposed.

I had some mild interest in #6 Miss Enchanted, who was visually impressive breaking her maiden at Ellis last time and might just be figuring things out for Dale Romans.

David's Analysis: 

#15 Drake's Passage is going to be a very heavy favorite with this race coming off the turf. His merits are fairly obvious and he is probably going to beat this field if he repeats any of his recent speed figures. 

Mike's Response: 

I like Freedom Trail, but outside of him, this race is more about who I don't want to use than who I do. This is probably a spread race for me. 

At better prices I want to use #3 Capture the Flag, #5 Cyber Ninja, and #11 Mondego.