David's Analysis: 

If you’re playing this race seriously, you’re playing against #8 Geopolitics. Sure, she’s run the fastest speed figures and has shown versatility, but she’s still settled for the same runner-up result in all 5 starts. She’s doing so at short prices, and is going to be a heavy favorite once again due to the lack of obvious alternatives.

I suppose #6 Empire Magic is the most obvious place to go if you’re trying to beat the favorite, but I really didn’t care for her last race and wanted to look elsewhere.

#5 Paulas Star Sister was never a serious threat to the top two on debut, but she was chasing outside every step of the way over a track that seemed mildly tilted towards rail runners. I liked the way she was staying on late that day, and don’t think she’s going to mind the slight stretch-out.

I just trusted #1 Calling an Audible a little more. She’s returning from a layoff, but Ed Barker is 7 for 45 (16%, $2.47 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs over 5 years. She was running slower speed figures last winter and spring, but kept decent company through those races. She can step forward with routine improvement, and it feels like a good sign that Irad Ortiz is taking this mount. She seemed to flatten out late in her previous one-mile attempts, so I think this 7-furlong distance is perfect for her.

Mike's Response: 

Agree about Geopolitics. I couldn't quite get to Paulas Star Sister as I didn't like her debut much, though she has a right to improve. The rider change on Calling An Audible seems a little obvious. I'll wait and see how much money she takes. 

For me, this race was about #6 Empire Magic. She showed potential while noticeably green first time out. While she had no excuse in that last one she did improve, she just happened to be second-best after a long duel. If she is around her ML odds at post time I'll take my chances there.

(D) = David's wagers; (M) = Mike's wagers

Mike's Analysis: 

I thought a lot of different horses were interesting in this race. While I preferred Main Beach to #7 Tifareeh from that 7/27 race, and thought about putting him on top, I ultimately went in a different direction. 

The two favorites are likely to be #5 Green Light and #4 Spirit Prince. They are both contenders but I thought this race went beyond them. 

David has the very interesting #3 Vesting on top and he can elaborate on that horse.

I want to bet #8 Cinder Block at a price. This well-bred colt ran well behind Green Light on debut while appearing to need the race, then improved noticeably in his next two starts. He lands in a pretty tough race for the level but he does not appear to be overmatched by these horses, yet might get bet as though he is. 

David's Response: 

I’m not going to knock any pick in this race, as it feels totally wide open. In a weird way, I actually think #9 Donegal Momentum might be the horse to beat. He’s already proven that he possesses serious talent, and everything about him, from pedigree to physicality, is screaming turf. You’re just not supposed to bet a horse trying a new surface for the first time at a short price.

I put #3 Vesting on top because I’m just not convinced that he was really suited to those marathon trips he tried in his last couple of starts. He also ran better than it might appear in his debut going this distance. That was a solid field for the level, and he didn’t get a particularly comfortable trip, wrangled back early, and then having to alter course in the stretch. He’s finally getting back into an appropriate spot. He has to prove he’s good enough to beat these, but he might be the rare Chad Brown runner that goes off at a fair price.

I’m a little more confident that I’ll get that 8-1 ML on #7 Tifareeh, who never seems to take much money in his races. He’s had less than ideal trips three times in a row, particularly two and three back when he was totally blocked in traffic through the stretch. Last time things worked out better, but he still wasn’t fully clear when trying to launch his rally until very late. 

David's Analysis: 

I was happy to see this race get redrawn from a couple of weeks ago when it was cancelled because it was interesting when first drawn and even more intriguing now with some additions. I don’t want to settle for a short price on #1 Lord Flintshire, who has some of the most reliable form coming in, and has handled a marathon distance. He just never wins, and I think he was a better horse last year.

I didn’t end up making him a top pick, but I am intrigued to see what we get from #8 Debate as he tries turf for the first time. He’s a half-brother to a turf winner and his second dam was a 3-time turf winner, so there is real pedigree here. He ran better than it looks last time when making a wide far turn move against an extreme rail bias. This is an interesting spot picked out by Michelle Giangiulio for owners that have had success stretching horses out in the past.

I actually think the horse to beat might be #4 Addicted to You, who surely won’t be among the favorites. He has to prove he can get the distance, but he ran really well at this level last time. That was a strong pace that completely fell apart, and he was the only one chasing the pace who was still around at the end. I think he’s among the most likely winners, and he’s usually underrated.

My top pick is #7 American Grant, who will definitely be a price. I’ll admit that this horse is a bit of a pet, but I have some reasons to back up my affinity for him. He has been the victim of some truly ridiculous trips this year. He was legitimately 4 to 5-wide around both turns on April 28 and June 7, and actually didn’t even run that badly in the latter race considering the trip. He then was allowed to drop way too far back early on June 30, and made a big backstretch move (running an interior quarter in 22.3 seconds) to reach contention before flattening out. Then last time the pace just didn’t develop for him, but he was running on at the end. I have always wanted to see him get the chance to try one of these marathon distances, since he strikes me as the type that will run all day. He’s finally getting the right opportunity, and I’m encouraged that Bruce Brown has reached out to the hot-riding Dylan Davis.

Mike's Response: 

I found it hard to get behind anyone strongly in this race, though it is worth taking a second look due to the vulnerable favorite(s). 

I want to try #2 Kerouac as he gets a surface switch along with a needed drop in class. He has speed in a race that might not get competitive early, and he stayed in his races on the all-weather last year when able to get comfortable early. 

Mike's Analysis: 

My starting point for this race was to fade #5 Jace's Road as he makes his first start since the 2023 Derby - though that position is unlikely to be an outlier.

I also didn't really want ML favorite #6 Can't Hush This, despite the fact that every Flying P horse that starts at this meet is seemingly destined to win.

If I bet the race, it will be because #4 Costa Terra winds up drifting a bit off his ML. I like this horse as a closer going a bit shorter, and really liked his effort two back when rallying going seven furlongs. He was compromised last time when rated to last in a paceless race going long. He can clearly handle a distance of ground, but I like him making one run in these shorter races and thought there was a chance that this pace could heat up for him.

David's Response: 

Mike and I had similar feelings about Jace’s Road and Can’t Hush This.

I agree with him that #4 Costa Terra is the horse to beat. I don’t love his running style for this race, but his recent form is good, and he was compromised by a minor rail bias last time.

My top pick is #3 Banishing. His last race for the prior connections was pretty poor, but it seemed like something went awry. Luis Saez isn’t the type to wrap up on a horse, and he didn’t really persevere with this guy once it became clear he wasn’t traveling well to the quarter pole. I find it interesting that he subsequently sold at auction for as much as $80k, since it would hardly have been surprising if this gelding had gone for less than that. That public auction price says to me that there probably aren’t major physical issues here. Now he lands with David Jacobson, who sports some interesting numbers when you pool his first off the claim and first off a trainer switch stats (which I think you can do for this barn specifically because Jacobson picks out so many of his horses). Jacobson is 17 for 62 (27%, $2.70 ROI) making the first start for his barn in dirt allowance races (no tag), and he’s 8 for 31 (26%, $3.43 ROI) making that move at NYRA.

David's Analysis: 

I’ll admit I don’t have the strongest feel for this race, and I won’t be surprised when the entry wins at a likely short price. Between that pair, I prefer #1A Bring Theband Home, who has really improved with the switch to turf. He got intimidated in the early stages of his last race when trying to go forward, but still ran well chasing home the razor sharp Xy Speed. He’s been off since then, but it’s been unwise to dismiss anything Mark Casse sends out at this meet.

In a strange way, #4 Mid Day Image might be the most trustworthy horse in this race, since he at least brings recency and consistent turf spring form to the table. And I say it’s strange, because he was 32-1 last time when he nearly got the job done against a tougher field than this. The trip worked out for him, but he has a running style that lends itself to good trips. He becomes my top pick after scratches.

Beyond that, I thought I was being clever putting #3 Vacation Dance in my top 4, but Mike picked him even higher, so I’ll let him elaborate on this runner who dirtied up form.

Mike's Response: 

My take on #3 Vacation Dance is simply that he is a much better horse going short. You have to pick through his form a bit since they have tried a lot of different things with him, but his best races are the shorter ones, including the two victories over this course and distance. Carmouche is going to have to work out a trip, but Vacation Dance is going to be a great price, and he is not in over his head with these horses.

I put #7 Mischievous Angel on top. I just really liked his two wins and thought he landed in a race last time that wasn't coming back for him while trying very gamely. He is lightly raced, and it's not like the more experienced, hard-hitters in here are running to a level that Mischievous Angel can't get to.

Mike's Analysis: 

I do not have a strong opinion in this race and am unlikely to be heavily involved. I put #5 Papiamento on top and will bet a few dollars on him at double-digit odds. Papiamento has a very nice pedigree, and he made a positive impression breezing 10.1 before selling for $250k in March. He appeared to be learning in that debut earlier in the meet while also getting a bit of an indecisive ride, and he might have simply needed that experience anyway. He puts blinkers on for the second start and seems the type that might be able to improve quickly. 

David's Response: 

I have to bet a few bucks on #1 Insubordination, who I have had some interest in going back to the beginning of this meet. He was intended to debut on turf in July, but was scratched when running off in the post parade. I would assume they kept him in that off the turf event last time just to give him some experience, since he’s obviously been a bit of a head case. I’m hoping that pays off here, as he finally gets on turf. There’s plenty of pedigree for this surface, and it’s an interesting mix of speed over stamina. George Weaver is 6 for 28 (21%, $4.40 ROI) going from dirt to turf second time out over 5 years.

Among the firsters, the one who has impressed me is #10 Zuniga. He has shown some real talent in the mornings, but these Chad Brown runners can sometimes need a start and this one obviously drew a poor post position.

David's Analysis: 

Like so many of these 2-year-old maiden events, there’s plenty of guesswork to be done here. Though, I do think there are a pair of runners with experience who merit respect. The more obvious of those is #8 C K Wonder, who contested a fast pace on debut after breaking from the rail and actually held on well for fourth behind a trio of well-regarded first time starters. Dale Romans does better with this second time starters than debut runners. Yet that’s also true of Jena Antonucci, who sends out #5 Shot in the Dark, the runner who dueled with C K Wonder early in that Aug. 3 affair. He tired more in the stretch, but he’s another who has a right to have gained fitness from that race, and he will be a better price.

As for firsters, I felt like I had less to go on than I usually do in races like this. Perhaps #3 Tip Top Thomas is a runner, but I’m unfamiliar with him since he’s been primarily based at Belmont. #6 Keewaydin has looked quick in the workouts I’ve seen, but Chad Brown is usually overbet in these spots. #2 Rookie Card is another who has some flashy drills, but Gargan’s runners often need a race.

I ultimately guessed with #7 Discotheque. Mike Maker has already sent out a couple of 2YO debut winners at this meet, and it just feels like his runners are outrunning their odds in too many situations to ignore. It’s atypical to see a Maker firster with a string of fast works, so I think it’s noteworthy that this one has a quick gate drill (matching older turf sprinter Cigarette Boat) and other swift works on the tab. There’s some class on the bottom side of his pedigree, and he figures to be a price.

Mike's Response: 

I don't have much to offer about this race from a wagering standpoint and am unlikely to get involved. If I play though, I'll likely use #8 C K Wonder, just because experience is so important in these races. 

David mentioned the three firsters I was most interested in - the #2 Rookie Card, #3 Tip Top Thomas, and #6 Keewaydin - though I am not going to try to talk anyone into any one of them.

It's a spread race for me.

Mike's Analysis: 

I actually think the outside draw could work for #12 Rabaja because it should allow him to get into a rhythm going forward, which was a problem for him last time. He’s a long-striding son of Summer Front who just wants to gallop along at one pace. I agree with everything else Mike had to say and want to use him.

I’m certainly afraid of #5 Rhetorical, but I didn’t think much of the field he was beating on debut. The barn is dangerous, but I didn’t need a short price on this horse.

I put #1 Final Denile on top because I think this horse might actually appreciate going longer. I wonder if Christophe Clement just kept him sprinting because those are the races that came up after he broke his maiden going 6 furlongs. He debuted him in a 7-furlong race, which usually indicates that there is some intention to stretch out eventually. I just think he lacks the speed for some of those sprints, and I could see him getting a very good trip stalking along the rail in this race. There’s certainly pedigree to stretch out, as the second dam was a pure dirt router.

David's Response: 

The far outside post is not a good one for #12 Rabaja but I see no reason to hold that last race against him, especially at the posted odds. This horse ran better than it looks in his 3yo debut off the layoff, then put it all together in his next start while breaking his maiden with an effort that is going to make him hard on this field, assuming he can repeat it. I did not like the trip he got in that last one when failing to land a serious blow behind a front-running winner. 

#5 Rhetorical was bet like a good thing in his debut early in the meet and did not disappoint. He is dangerous right back, and I will use him.

David's top pick is a horse that I liked quite a bit last time sprinting. He didn't get a great trip in that race, and he is bred to stretch out, but I did not go back to him.

David's Analysis: 

From a wagering standpoint, I don’t have much interest in this Sword Dancer. As a fan of the sport, I think it’s pretty cool that Charlie Appleby is running these two turf beasts against each other when he could have split them up.

For the purposes of starting off a late Pick-5 or other multi-race wagers, I would use both Charlie Appleby runners, leaning slightly on #2 Measured Time. He has more to prove than stablemate #4 Silver Knott, but I was really impressed with the way Measured Time put away that Manhattan field and proceeded to gallop out so strongly into the clubhouse turn. As a more mature horse, I think he might have the ability to get this added distance. I view him as the more talented of the two stablemates, and he could be the slightly better price.

If this spot hadn’t come up so tough, I might have had some interest in #3 Far Bridge, who got an impossible 3-wide trip around all 3 turns last time in the United Nations. It’s just hard to see him beating both favorites even if he runs his very best race.

Mike's Response: 

I'll just second most of the above. I am very interested in watching this Sword Dancer and think both of the Godolphin/Appleby horses are very good. I also went with Measured Time on top, and for the same reasons.

David and Mike's Pick-5

Both handicappers combine their opinions using the ABC method to craft a Pick-5 wager starting in this race. (Total wagers: $110.50)

Race: A / B / C
R9:  2 / 4 / --
R10:  5 / 3 / --
R11:  7,8 / 1,4,6 / --
R12:  3,8 / 5,6,10 / 1,2,11
R13:  2,3,7 / -- / 1,8

Mike's Analysis: 

I view #3 Vahva as a legit favorite in this race and think she is the strongest favorite among the five Grade 1 races on the card. 

If she loses, I think it will be to #5 Scylla. While she is bred to stretch out, and has already done that effectively, Scylla's one-turn races have all been very strong. She cuts back for this Ballerina out of a Grade 1 route where she was put on the lead in a race that was faster early and slower late. And Bill Mott has excellent numbers with horses like Scylla, who are cutting back from route to sprint in graded stakes races. She is back quickly for this, which seems to be with intent, and she will not be the favorite. 

David's Response: 

I have little to add. I’m starting to think my 7/2 ML on #5 Scylla was too optimistic, as everyone seems to like this horse as the minor upsetter. I view it as a 2-horse affair.

David's Analysis: 

I suppose #6 Mullikin will attract support based on his undefeated record so far this year. However, he comes into this race still with plenty to prove. He’s gotten very soft trips in races so far this year, and while this might not be a vintage edition of the Forego, it’s still tougher than the Nerud he won. He can obviously win, but I didn’t want a short-ish price on him.

I actually think the horses to beat are #5 Run Classic and #8 Cagliostro, and neither may go favored here. I know Mike likes the former, so I’ll let him elaborate on that one. Cagliostro is turning back in distance, but he appears to have all the tools to win going shorter. He’s quick out of the gate, has sharp tactical speed (especially since the addition of blinkers) and is drawn perfectly outside.

I just want to get a little more creative with #7 Angkor, who figures to be the best price of those I’m considering. I could poke holes in the races that many of these horses are exiting, and some might fault Angkor for only trying a pair of listed stakes as he steps up to the Grade 1 level here. However, those listed stakes at Churchill may have been just as tough, if not tougher, than this race. He gamely chased home Closethegame Sugar, who might be among the best sprinters in the country right now, and actually beat that rival soundly when they met back in May. I won’t be too hard on him for his June 1 flop, since he was put in an uncomfortable position early in that race, as his rider tried to wrangle him back off Skelly. Aside from that effort, he’s been very consistent. I like the 7 furlongs for him, and he goes out for a barn that routinely overperforms at this meet.

Mike's Response: 

I get that #6 Mullikin had been sharp since returning as a 4yo but I was also wary of taking a short price on him as he steps into a tougher race.

I thought about putting #8 Cagliostro on top, and do think he can win this race, but ultimately went elsewhere. Though I will use him.

I like #5 Run Classic and think he is likely to run much better in this race after not looking sharp in his return from Dubai last time. His prior sprint form makes him a major player in here, and the seven-furlong distance is not an issue for him. 

I also wanted to be a bit lenient on #1 Gun Pilot for his disappointing True North effort. I liked his form leading into that race, and I thought he might rate the benefit of the doubt after disappointing there, as he bobbled coming out of the gate, and then was continuously bumped by Accretive in the early stages of the race. He can do better but I would not want a short price on him.

Mike's Analysis: 

I have no argument with the 1-2 finishers from the Grade 1 Woody Stephens being the horses to beat in this race. I do feel like #5 Prince of Monaco's trouble at the start of that race is being glossed over due to the wicked pace that developed in front of him, however. Maybe It didn't ultimately affect him as much as it might have otherwise, but bobbling, and then getting bumped between rivals to wind up far back in the field is never ideal, particularly in a Grade 1 race. 

I am not really against those two horses, but I do want to focus on #3 Domestic Product in this race. Domestic Product was effective going longer early on, but he has the kind of handy speed that lends itself to middle distances, a point he drove home last time when pounding three Dwyer rivals with a triple-digit Beyer. This race is much tougher but dropping back another furlong shouldn't be an issue, and he has looked like a talent from the start for top connections. 

The other horses for me were #6 Timberlake - though I admit that he is hard to trust - and #10 Jefferson Street.

David's Response: 

I almost wish #3 Domestic Product hadn’t run so well in the Dwyer, because now his one-turn ability is totally exposed. I respect him in this spot, but I worry that he’s not going to offer much value.

That said, I picked the ML favorite. I just think #8 Book’em Danno has proven himself to be the best, most consistent runner in this 3-year-old crop of sprinters. I hear what Mike is saying about the start of the Woody Stephens, but to me the most significant portion of the race when was Book’em Danno ranged up approaching the quarter pole to make a bold early move into a pace that totally collapsed behind him. He’s just so easy to root for, and I wonder if he’s not going to be as short a price as he might deserve to be with Irad Ortiz landing elsewhere. (Of course, that’s merely due to his connections making a late decision to run here.)

Mike and I think the same price horse is interesting. #10 Jefferson Street was wide against a mild rail bias in the Amsterdam. I do worry that he’s run his best races with Lasix, but he projects to get a good trip from this outside draw.

David's Analysis: 

This Travers offers something for everyone, whether you’re a pure fan of this sport or a hardcore gambler. All of the active major players in the 3-year-old male division are here, and there’s the added wrinkle of the top filly taking on the boys.

Among the four horses likely to vie for favoritism, there are two that I’m against. As much as I respect what #1 Thorpedo Anna has accomplished against the fillies, this is a much tougher field than she’s ever faced before. She needs to run faster, and do so from a tricky inside post position that could force her rider’s hand early. It would be thrilling if she were to get the job done, but it will happen without my wagering support. The same goes for #8 Fierceness. He surprised me when he pulled out one of his good efforts to win the Jim Dandy last time, proving that he is indeed one of the most naturally talented members of this division. However, I still don’t think you can rely on him to produce that effort every time, and I am concerned about the four-week turnaround. I also wonder if either he or the filly are truly 10-furlong horses, because I do think it’s going to take some real stamina to win this year’s Travers.

I’m on the fence about #2 Sierra Leone. I expect him to run well again, as he always does. I’m just getting a little tired of his act. This is the third race in a row where the general consensus is that he’s going to get a great setup, so this is his time. That was the thought process of many heading into the Belmont, as well as the Jim Dandy, and he settled for minor awards each time. You can make some excuses for him, but the excuses are piling up for a horse that always seems to get bet.

You don’t have to make excuses for #7 Dornoch. This horse just wins. Looking back, it seems so clear now that all you have to do is get him into a position where he can stick his head in front on the far turn, and he will do the rest. Even if he’s not traveling well or has dealt with early pressure, he just seems to find more and gut it out. You have to respect a horse with that attribute. And despite his accomplishments, he never seems to get as much respect as he might deserve. I made him the ML favorite in this race, but I’m not convinced that he has to be that short. I view him as the most likely winner, and to me, 5-2 isn’t such a bad price, and he could drift higher.

I almost made Dornoch my top pick, but the horse that I really want to bet to win is #3 Unmatched Wisdom. In a lot of ways, I think he has a very similar profile to Thorpedo Anna. Both have been visually impressive beating up on weaker competition, the difference being that Unmatched Wisdom is going to be two or three times the price of the filly. I’m not totally convinced that he’s up to this task, but I have really liked the visual of all three prior starts. When I watch back the Curlin, I get the sense that he always had more in the tank to hold the runner-up at bay. He was flicking his ears and even looking a little unfocused late in that race. Chad Brown believes that he’ll be better with a target in front of him, and I can see that watching his races. He’s not headstrong at all, and always indicates with his ears when he knows he’s passed a target. This is a major test, but I’m willing to take a shot if he’s anywhere near that 8-1 ML.

Mike's Response: 

It seems everyone is against #8 Fierceness in this Travers, so I won't add to the pile. I'm not using him.

I don't necessarily think the filly is overmatched here, I just can't see the trip working out for her in this Travers, which it does not appear is not going to be run to suit her. 

I don't know what to say about this race. I get that #7 Dornoch of probably the leader of the division right now, but is he really any better than several of these horses? If he is not, he is certainly more reliable. I could have just put him on top, and almost did, but I ultimately went back to #2 Sierra Leone. I guess it is now or never for this colt, as his best race probably does it, and the setup looks to be there for him. Do I love him? No. But he gets one final chance in this race.

Mike's Analysis: 

I thought the favorites were vulnerable in this race and wanted others. 

I wound up liking #1 Awesome Life, who did no running in his debut on turf and was immediately sent back to the sidelines. This wasn't the kind of race where I wanted to get too particular regarding one race from any of the entrants, and Awesome Life does have a pedigree that suggests that he might prefer this surface. Trainer Saffie Joseph has been sending out live runners at the meet so far, and he has excellent numbers with horses like this. 

I will spread a bit in multi-race wagers but could play Awesome Life on top in some exotics and bet him to win. 

David's Response: 

I’m certainly not going to knock a horse from a hot barn at a price.

I thought this finale was very confusing, and became more so after the scratches of 4 logical runners. With the AEs getting into the field, I'm putting #12 Prairie Dunes on top. I don't know what happened last time, but it's a good sign that Bill Mott though he exerted such little effort as to bring him out for a timed workout just two days later. He's now dropping to a realistic level, and he'll be a better price than #8 Treaty Obligation, who he defeated two back.