David: 

There's plenty of two-year-old action through the first half of this card. I usually have a little more interest in wagering on these races than Mike does, so I'll try to provide some scattered insights.

Among the firsters, I like the workouts for both #1 Remember Mamba and #4 Quiet Power. Both have pretty good turf pedigrees, with Quiet Power's female family being particularly strong for turf. The major difference these two is that Remember Mamba could be a shorter price even though Cherie DeVaux doesn't have great stats debuting in turf routes. Shug McGaughey, on the other hand, is surprisingly 5 for 14 (36%, $7.16 ROI) with 2YO first time starters in Saratoga turf routes over 5 years, so I'll favor his charge.

As for the experienced runners, #5 Feral ran pretty well on debut, but I don't necessarily see a ton of pedigree evidence that he's supposed to move up on turf. #3 Franklin Delano has a huge turf pedigree on the bottom side, but Pletcher is just 2 for 40 (5%, $1.16 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from dirt sprints to turf routes over 5 years.

The horse I want to bet is #2 Ambassador Blue, who switches to turf for Danny Gargan. He didn't take much money at all on debut, so that was probably just a prep race. Only a few progeny of Charlatan have yet tried turf, but he is 5:1-2-1 with those turf starters, and the dam was Grade 3-placed on grass. He looked like a turfy mover on debut, and Danny Gargan got him right on grass for his next workout over the Oklahoma course on Aug. 15. He went in company with two other stablemates, breaking behind the pair before splitting them to pull away in the stretch. It was pretty impressive stuff for a 2-year-old, and suggests to me that he's going to move up on the turf.

Mike: 

I like Shug's horse for the reasons noted above, though I am not interested in betting a bunch of money on races like this. 

For wagers below: (D) = David, (M) = Mike

Mike: 

In a lot of ways, I feel like #3 Then is a horse to stand against, since he had such a great trip en route to victory last time. I also feel like he is a good horse, and the longer I looked at this race, the more I thought that he was in a great spot right back. I'm a fan of #7 Crystal Quest, and have no real argument against him as the likely favorite, but I've also bet real money on him several times already to no positive effect. Chad's entry makes sense, but I'm not betting them. David can take it from here.

David: 

I agree that Then has some talent, but the last race set up so perfectly for him, and I do believe this is a tougher spot. I also regard Crystal Quest as the horse to beat. However, I didn't think he ran better than #8 Vesting in that recent start despite just edging ahead of that foe at the wire. Vesting was subsequently entered in the Arlington Million before his connections thought better of it. That's probably a sign that the horse is doing well, and he figures to be controlling the pace up front along with Rungius, who may not be as aggressively ridden as last time. He just projects to get a great trip and seems to be on the upswing for Maker.

David: 

My prevailing opinion in this maiden race is that I didn't want to settle for short prices. Steve Asmussen tends to do well with horses like #3 Touch of Magic, but it's hard for me to develop an opinion about her, since the only workout video available was an inconsequential maintenance drill. I just feel like $250k wasn't much to pay for this stellar pedigree and even then she was bought back by Three Chimneys. I wonder how good she'll be. #8 Tam Tam also has a big pedigree and appears to be working well, and Phil Bauer can certainly win with a firster.

I just thought #4 Five Bars was more interesting at a bigger price. Shug McGaughey is debuting three juveniles on this card, and I thought this filly had the most convincing workouts of them all. She appeared to outwork Day One Starter, who already had a start under his belt, on Aug. 9, and then followed it up with a strong solo drill last week. Shug doesn't have great stats debuting on dirt, it's more of a turf pedigree underneath, but Maxfield is off to a strong start with his 2-year-old firsters.

Mike: 

We are running 2yo MSW races in late August that consist entirely of first-time starters. Not for me. I picked the 3, but will not have real money invested.

Mike: 

I guess the two favorites are logical here, though I want to bet against them. #9 Long Pour was nowhere in his debut while facing several of these same horses, though he was bumped at the start of that race, then bumped a couple of more times on the turn while trying to work his way out into the clear, before fanning wide and failing to fire. He has some pedigree, and I am willing to give him another chance at a price

David: 

I had wanted to take on the two favorites with #6 Coach Pitino, but I hear he's likely coming out of this race. He had shown speed chasing a fast pace in a tough spot for this level on debut, and I liked the cutback to 6 furlongs. But it may be a moot point. Between the two favorites, I prefer #10 Merica's Back, who should benefit from the outside draw as a horse who tends to break a step slowly. I had trouble getting too creative beyond that.

David: 

Between the two likely favorites, I much prefer #10 Silsbee. Some might read into Irad going with #6 Annascaul instead, but I really didn't like that filly's last race at Monmouth. That wasn't a tough field for a stakes and she was no match for the winner. Silsbee also drops out of a stakes, and I thought she actually could have attained a better placing in the Galway with a bit more luck. She was off a step slowly, and had to navigate traffic, but was finishing well late and galloped out best of all. If she gets a decent trip, I think she'll win. However, drawing outside is no guarantee with the rails down to 0 feet on the Mellon turf course.

The only horse I would really want to bet in this race is #5 Long Legged Queen. I know she looks too slow based on her recent form, but it's easy to ignore all of those dirt races. She's simply a better turf horse, and she had legitimate excuses when she finally got back on turf last time. She broke a bit slowly, and then was restrained while chasing 3-wide over a course that was favoring the rail path. She now gets a major rider upgrade to the more aggressive Luis Saez, and she could be tough to reel in if she's able to clear to the lead. I'll have some money to win on her at the expected price, and will use her underneath Silsbee.

Mike: 

I'm a Long Legged Queen fan and want to use her at a price. I do think she might have landed in an above-average race for the level, and sided with Silsbee, whom I also prefer to Annascaul. 

Mike: 

I personally find it disconcerting that we are running a 2-year-old MSW race on August 23 with a field of nine that includes eight first-time starters. I have no interest in betting real money on races like this, though I recognize that the lone entrant with experience, #6 Vino Vici, holds an edge on his competition . I found a few things to like about #4 Dark Assault, who is likely to be a price, though I would never try to talk anyone else into betting him. 

David tends to have stronger opinions on these races than I do, so I'll let him elaborate on his thoughts from here...

David: 

Maybe it's due to all the work I've had to put in to make the morning line, but I find that I tend to do better in these races than some other types. It's strange, since I used to have the same inclination as Mike to skip them, so I've had to convince myself to get more involved.

#6 Vino Vici makes sense, but I thought a talented firster might be able to beat him. The money should be pretty spread around here.

#5 Big Dom might be most dangerous of the firsters, since he has reportedly been working very well for his debut. The one cause for pause with It's Our Time prior to that 17-length debut win last week was that the DRF Clocker Report indicated he had been slightly outworked by this horse. That's a scary thought, but I'm sure that will also attract plenty of money his way. And those workouts aren't always a direct translation to the afternoon.

#8 Stimulate strikes me as a horse with talent, which is no surprise given his pedigree, being a son of Grade 1 winner Elate. He definitely has more of a two-turn profile, and looks like that in his workouts. I expect he'll be finishing strongly, and could run his way into the trifecta. I just wonder if a win is asking a lot.

I want to bet #1 My World if he gets a little ignored. These horses based at Churchill can be tough reads, but he looked best in company in both workout videos I saw. One of those was the recent Aug. 16 drill where he always was traveling easier than his partner and galloped out very strongly. It's more of a turf pedigree on the dam's side, but he seems like one of the more robust Essential Quality progeny that I've seen. Cox also has great stats with 2-year-old firsters at Saratoga.

David: 

Mike and I did video previews of all of the stakes on this card over on the DRF YouTube if you want our thoughts on each and every runner in these races. In terms of strategy for playing this Lake Placid, I don't want to get too heavily involved given uncertainty over how the pace will play out.

I think #3 May Day Ready is the best filly in this field, and I think she'll win if enough pace develops. She was a very good 2-year-old, and it's very easy to make excuses for both starts so far this year – first the wrong surface and then a poor start against tougher competition. She's worked very well since the Belmont Oaks, and she's getting a meaningful rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. I personally think 5-2 is fair value on her, but wouldn't want to go much lower than that given the murky pace scenario. I'll use her with #4 Warming, who didn't run well in the Belmont Oaks but may appreciate less distance and softer competition here.

Mike: 

As noted above, our in-depth thoughts on this race can be found in the stakes preview video. I like #1 Play With Fire quite a bit, but she is the favorite on the morning line, and I am never that interested in betting horses at short prices. I also think Warming is interesting and will be tempted to try her if she drifts to a big price. 

Mike: 

#2 Gallant Greta is not the kind of horse I typically fall for, as she parlayed a perfect trip into her lone victory to date. That said, she ran right over that field to win, and she also ran well last time while enduring a less-than-perfect trip. She appears to have improved noticeably as a 4yo, and I think she can be tough right back in this spot.

David: 

I don't totally agree with Mike on Gallant Greta's trip last time. She did have to wait for room in some traffic, but she also spent the entire race riding the rail during a week when it seemed like inside position was an advantage on the inner turf. I still think she's the horse to beat in this race, and her inside draw could be an advantage once again with the rails set at 0 feet on the Mellon. I mildly prefer the form of #12 Tongue Twister, but she is mired outside and could be in for another wide trip.

After the scratch of the longshot I wanted to bet, I'll upgrade #6 Dividend Recap. It feels like the connections got away with one running her for a tag last time. She's a massive filly who has obviously had some soundness issues. There's ability here if she can finally put races together, and she seems like a candidate to move forward out of the win last time as she steps up in class.

David: 

I'm playing against #7 Thorpedo Anna at the expected short price. I don't believe she's been the same horse since last year's Travers, and I think the strength of this field could expose her again, just as it the La Troienne did. She won't be on my tickets.

Mike is going to make a case for #6 Leslie's Rose, and I can't really argue against it. I've just never trusted her given her inconsistency, but I do acknowledge you can make some valid excuses for her. She's just not really for me, especially coming off a perfect trip victory. Between the two most logical alternatives to the favorite, I slightly prefer #1 Randomized. She also got a perfect trip in her most recent win, but I like that she draws the rail, which will ensure they use her speed as a weapon. She's run big races at Saratoga in the past, and appears to be back in form now.

I'm going back to #4 Dorth Vader. Many will dismiss her Ogden Phipps as a sloppy track fluke, but I think that would be ignoring some important context. Let's remember that this mare only raced one time in a 20-month span between 2023 and 2025, so she had a right to need her return from the layoff in March. She then tackled the La Troienne in her second race back, and I feel that she was going to win that race with a clean trip. She had significant trouble on the first turn, and then was blocked in the stretch. She came into the Ogden Phipps as an underrated horse, and executed the performance that she would have delivered at Churchill if not for the trip. Her Molly Pitcher was disappointing after that, but she was put in the position of having to apply pressure to Randomized. She's run better when she gets held up just behind the pace, especially since the blinkers have come off. She figures to get that trip here, and the price should be fair once again.

Mike: 

I also want to play against the favorite. I think there are legit excuses to be made for #6 Leslie's Rose's "off" efforts and think she is logical here with a good trip likely coming her way. The other horse for me is Randomized, who seems likely to get her preferred trip in this race. I didn't need the others.

Mike: 

I was taken with #2 Midland Money's debut, after which he went unsighted for almost 14 months. My initial take on his return 20 days ago was that Baffert shipped him here for a start in an N1X because he knew that this was going to be his next start. Midland Money did not look fully cranked for that first start back, but he won impressively, nonetheless, and he now shows up in a Grade 1 after breezing a bullet half-mile last week. This is no easy spot, but he has a chance to be really good, and, assuming you believe that to be the case, this is the time to bet him.

David: 

I won't argue with Mike's idea on a price. I really think you can make a case for everyone in this Jerkens, and it's just a matter of having the right ideas about who will be fair odds.

There are three horses that I really want to use in this race. One of those is #3 Barnes, who finally turns back to the right distance. He obviously went off form this spring, but his recent training suggests that he's back on track.

I'm using #6 Smoken Wicked, who blasted a weaker field in the Amsterdam. That effort exposes him, but he still may not get the respect he deserves given all of the alternative options with upside. He's a strong fit here, and his last workout suggests to me that he's holding his form.

My top pick is #7 Captain Cook, and this is purely a value play. He's not the most likely winner, but he figures to get somewhat ignored in such a competitive field, and I can certainly make a compelling case for him. This is a horse who always had stamina concerns following him even when he was trying Derby preps earlier this year. He finally turned back in the Maxfield, and I felt he ran better than the third-place result suggests. He was pressured from an inside post every step of the way, and was still battling back late even after he got passed in the lane. I don't care so much about the trainer switch, but I do like that he's drawn outside the speed this time.

David: 

I'm not way against the two likely favorites in this Ballerina, but I can't fully warm up to either one. I find #7 Scylla to be more trustworthy since she almost always shows up. She's just lost a few races that I thought she should have won, and I'm starting to get a little tired of her settling for minor awards. #9 Hope Road might have a higher ceiling, but the only race of hers that I really like is her Derby City Distaff. Even though she ran some fast speed figures before that, those performances don't do much for me, and her last effort is a minor concern.

#5 Claret Beret has to be considered dangerous given how much she's improved for the Saffie Joseph barn. She might not be that short a price in here, and I think she fits this race pretty well from a fig and running style standpoint.

I'll take #8 My Mane Squeeze as my pick, and I could bet her if she is indeed around that ML price. She obviously disappointed two and three back, but she ran very well off the layoff in the Madison this year, and seemed to finally get back to that level last time when given a confidence boost against New York-breds. She got to set a slow pace, but she really stretched that field out at the end, and earned a legitimate speed figure. She should get forward again from this outside draw, and I think she might be finding the right field at the right time to finally get a Grade 1.

Mike: 

The longer I looked at this race, the more I just thought that Hope Road was going to use her speed effectively from the outside and make herself really hard to beat. I also like David's top pick and will use her. I put the consistent and underrated #6 Zeitlos in there, but I view her as more of an underneath kind of horse.

Mike: 

The Forego goes through #4 Book'em Danno, who has firmly established himself as the top sprinter in the country to this point. I have no knocks against him and expect him to be hard to beat. The one horse I want to take a shot against him with is #2 Bishops Bay. It's fair to wonder what kind of trip Bishops Bay can pull from his inside draw, but he was cut out to be a nice horse from the start, and he has rounded back into form nicely since returned from a long layoff at the end of last year. He is a fighter with speed, and his fastest race to date came in a one-turn mile two starts back. As much as I like Book'em Danno, I'm open to a few different opinions in this race. But I'm betting the #2. 

David: 

I'm not just conceding this race to #4 Book'em Danno. He's been awesome so far this year, but this is the toughest test he's faced since he was beaten in the Churchill Downs back in May. Rather than being against him, I just think there are some others who have a serious chance at much better prices.

One of those is the other Brad Cox horse #1 Most Wanted. This half-brother to Life Is Good has primarily gone longer than this, but he has the speed to not get outrun early in this race, and I know he can finish strongly. It's an interesting spot for them to finally try stepping him up in class, and I won't be surprised when he's up to the challenge.

The horse I have to bet is #6 Crazy Mason. I know he has to get a little faster to beat the favorites in here, but he is a 7-furlong specialist who is supposed to get pace if this race holds together after scratches. He unleashed a terrific late run to win the Carter, and while this is a tougher field than that, I still don't think he's gotten the respect he deserves for that effort. He was compromised by a slow pace in the True North and the Bing Crosby was always the wrong spot. He's now reunited with winning jockey Manny Franco, and the price will be high enough for me to go back to him.

David: 

#4 Sovereignty is obviously the most likely winner, but he's going to be around 1-5. The snowball of superlatives has been gathering mass ever since the Belmont Stakes, so the days of getting value on this horse are over. Much of that praise is deserved, but I do think talk of him being nearly invincible in spots like this is taking it too far. Sovereignty is a very good 3-year-old in a pretty good crop, but he hasn't yet proven that he's the kind of generational talent that some would claim. He may ultimately do so, but he still has some key tests ahead of him.

#1 Magnitude is a seriously talented foe, probably the most brilliantly fast horse that Sovereignty has ever encountered. Pure speed won't necessarily put him in the winner's circle, since Sovereignty has the proven track record in these elite races. Yet Magnitude still has upside, with every right to step forward second off the layoff. Given the likely price disparity between the two, I'm giving the challenger the edge. If Magnitude drifts above 2-1 I'll even bet him.

I'm very much looking forward to this race as someone who's been captivated by this current crop of 3-year-olds. But even taking the mildly contrarian view that I have, I won't pretend this Travers is anywhere close to the most appealing wagering event on the card.

Mike: 

I'll be interested to see if Magnitude can prove himself to be a player near the top of this division, but I'm not betting against the favorite in the Travers. 

Mike: 

I'll use the favorite in this race, but from a wagering perspective, I am much more interested in two horses: #9 Catholic Edition and #3 Sky Low Low.  

Catholic Edition raced wide and never made a serious run in her debut, which looked like a race she really needed. She might have improved more than it looks last time when failing to work out a clean trip, before finishing up well way too late.

Sky Low Low debuted late last year, and she endured a tough trip in that race while never landing a blow. She drops for her return with Lasix on, and she will be a price. 

David: 

#1 Dancin Jane had a right to need her return from the layoff at Aqueduct. She ran races last year that would beat this field, and I think she'll be tough with any kind of step forward. I do think Linda's other horse #9 Catholic Edition is one you want to use, but she's such a plodder who gets off slowly and runs greenly, so I found her tough to trust on top.