David's Analysis: 

#1 Innovator improved on his troubled debut to finish a good second in a maiden race earlier at this meet. He was never a serious threat to the winner that day, but stayed on well for second and his experience may give him an edge as they all try this demanding 7 furlongs.

Among those with experience, I just thought there was more upside with #2 Sandman, who was well-bet on debut at Churchill. He disappointed that day, but he also wasn’t asked for much through the stretch once Jose Ortiz suspected he wasn’t getting there. This horse sold for a massive sum after galloping rather than breezing at the OBS sale. He has shown real talent in the mornings both before and after that debut performance, so I suspect there is more ability here than meets the eye.

I put first time starter #4 Aviator Gui on top. This son of Uncle Mo is out of a half-sister to Gun Runner. He appears to have a lengthy stride to him, and strikes me as one that will really appreciate longer distances down the line. I liked the way he finished in his July 21 drill, galloping out best in company. And while he was second-best in his July 28 gate drill, he was working with unraced Worthy Charge, who appears to be the best 2-year-old colt in Chad Brown’s barn from what I’ve seen of the morning drills.

#6 Nantz didn’t do as much for me. He has definitely been progressing through his recent training, coming into this race better than he looked a month ago. However, he’s been training in blinkers and racing with them on debut is a poor stat for Pletcher.

Mike's Response:

I also prefer Sandman and view Innovator as the main threat. I am against the firsters but am interested to see what we get from Aviator Gui, both here and down the road. 

(D) = David's wagers; (M) = Mike's wagers

Mike's Analysis: 

#1 Hurricane Nelson is the horse to beat, though he is not a favorite I would be afraid to have money in against.  He was asked to go seven furlongs off the layoff last time, and that might be excuse enough for his loss as the chalk, though he was also facing a tougher field that day. I still didn't love that he was no match late after getting loose on the lead. 

The only horse I could bet in here is #2 Marche, and I'll have something on him if he stays around his ML odds. He faced a solid field in his March debut, and he wasn't aggressively ridden in that spot after he failed to break sharply from the gate in what appeared to be an educational effort. He missed time after that but starts back in a spot where he can be competitive with some improvement.

David's Response:

Mike and I have a similar opinion of #1 Hurricane Nelson. He’s very much the horse to beat, but he’s running out of chances to break his maiden.

Watching back that July 13 maiden event, I want #7 Ready As Ever. This horse badly needed his debut experience, as he broke slowly and was pretty green thereafter. He was ridden hard from the mid-point of the backstretch but lost contact with the field while reacting to kickback. However, he never threw in the towel and responded to the constant pressure, making up ground through the lane. This horse has some ability if he can run a more complete race this time. Drawing outside should also help him get more comfortable.

David's Analysis: 

I found this race to be problematic. #4 Secret Rules is a standout on paper as he drops in class out of tougher $40k claimers. He was a vet scratch twice in June, and now he’s returning from a 3-month layoff dropping down. Linda Rice places horses to win at this meet, but she hasn’t been nearly as potent with horses like this as she was last season. He still may win by default, since I’m not thrilled with the horses exiting the July 12 race for $20k.

I also couldn’t warm up to the #3 The Bullion Bomber, who has had an interrupted worktab for his return and has also been scratched recently. He’s racing for the waiver here, but that’s often a signal from connections that horses need a start.

Mike's Response:

David highlighted the three horses that are interesting in this field. I get Zeebear and almost put him on top. Perhaps The Bullion Bomber will need one off the layoff but I respect his speed and like him cutting back.

Mike's Analysis: 

This race seems unlikely to be run on turf, but I'll bet #8 Evie Does It if it is.

On dirt #9 Miss Fashionista looks well spotted after chasing wide vs. a tougher field as an MTO on opening day. She improved suddenly to break her maiden back in February, then ran in two much tougher races in her next two starts. 

#10 Highway Harmony seems like the logical alternative on dirt though I think she is a much better turf horse.

David's Response:

On turf, I wanted #2 Wish List, who was steadily improving this season. Yet that’s unlikely to matter.

I have nothing to add to Mike’s assessment of this as a dirt race.

David's Analysis: 

#5 Devil Blue Dress is obviously dangerous on the class drop after facing significantly tougher company in all of her prior starts against winners. However, Dale Romans is just 2 for 25 ($0.77 ROI) first time for a tag with non-maidens over 5 years.

There is speed in here to set up the late run of #7 Spiritual Lady. I find her tough to trust since she sometimes fails to finish off he races after making a move at the quarter pole, but she obviously makes sense here.

I put #6 Grab the Glory on top. She might have the speed to get clear of this group, and she wanted no part of a mile last time. Jose Ortiz just eased her through the stretch of that race once she got passed on the front end. Linda Rice is 6 for 16 (38%, $2.38 ROI) going from allowance dirt routes to claiming dirt sprints over 5 years, for whatever that’s worth. She fits from a class standpoint and might be a fair price.

Mike's Response:

This race might be a bit tough for #3 Jay's Love but I want to try him in here at a price. His maiden win was solid and earned a figure that puts him in the mix, and I thought he ran an underrated race when making an early move going a mile last time. The 6 and 7 were the other horses for me, as well.

David's Analysis: 

It seems highly unlikely that this race will stay on the turf, which is unfortunate since there appeared to be some talent in here. On dirt, #7 Tenacious Leader makes plenty of sense. He was well-supported on debut for Todd Pletcher, but ran like a horse who wanted no part of that 5 1/2 furlong distance. His pedigree suggests that longer should be better, since his dam is a half-sister to dirt routers War Story and Land Over Sea.

#4 Royal Presence has trained well on both dirt and turf and has some versatility to his pedigree. Mott’s other runner #10 Sam’s Rocket has been intended for turf since the debut, but added ground might suit him even on dirt. #1 Statesman is another who may not mind the surface switch, as he’s out of a dam who won the Grade 1 Personal Ensign on dirt.

Mike's Response:

I agree that Tenacious Leader is likely to run a lot better in this spot if we are off the turf. I picked #3 Davy Crockett for turf, and will stick with him if he stays in to race over the main track. He has a versatile pedigree and appears to be training well up to his debut for an excellent first-out barn.

I also thought Statesman was interesting, on either surface.

Mike's Analysis: 

The Grade 2 Saratoga Special pulled an interesting mix of 2-year-olds from different directions, potentially making for a very good betting race.

While I think this race goes beyond the favorites, I do think #5 Touchy has a chance to be tough in here. He disappointed in when debuting in the Tremont, though I thought there were excuses to be had for that performance, perhaps starting with him running in that race in the first place. Wesley Ward has a well-deserved reputation with 2-year-olds and first time starters, but one thing he does not do regularly is debut them in stakes races, no matter how good they are. In fact, over the past five years Touchy is the only 2-year-old that Ward has debuted in a stakes race scheduled for dirt - he has run a handful in turf sprints, and left one in a race rained off the grass.

Touchy looked the part that day, but he was noticeably green in the running of the Tremont and wound up getting run over by a strong finisher after getting involved in a stretch battle. 

Ward is taking the blinkers off while running him right back in another stakes race and I suspect that Touchy might be more clued in this time.

The other horses for me are #1 Smoken Wicked and #7 Noble Force. 

David's Response:

I view the presence of #5 Touchy as the reason to play this race. This horse is no doubt an impressive physical and a beautiful mover, but he doesn’t seem like the most genuine sort. He traveled around the turn like he was going to destroy that Tremont field, and then he found little when put to pressure in the stretch. He’s looked fine in his training since then, but even his recent workouts confirms my view that he just lacks gears. He’s likely to take money again and I want others.

I’m also not thrilled with #4 First Resort, who won a rail-dominated race at Ellis and goes out for a trainer who rarely participates on this circuit. #9 Keep It Easy put in a big effort to break his maiden at Churchill, but that was the day to have him at 23-1. He’s worked well since then, but I would need a price to support him.

Another Churchill shipper, #1 Smoken Wicked, is a little more interesting. He ran well on debut at Evangeline, and then held his own against tougher in the Bashford Manor despite getting shuffled back on the turn and going wide.

My top pick is #3 Global Legend. This horse had no figure assigned to his debut, and the TimeformUS Speed Figure of 69 is unimpressive. Yet it’s very difficult to assign numbers to those 4 1/2 furlong races, and the runbacks from his debut suggest it might have been a decent race. The second and third-place finishers both came back to win with 72 Beyers, faster numbers than most of his rivals have run in here, and he beat those horses by 3 lengths. Furthermore, his July 28 workout signals that he’s moved forward since that race, as he was always holding an edge over Fourstardave entrant Strong Quality. I think this horse has ability, and he’s likely to be a square price.

David's Analysis: 

With this race coming off the turf, #4 Cogburn would be interesting if he stayed in since he does possess strong dirt form from earlier in his career. Yet it wouldn't be surprising if his connections scratched for a more lucrative turf option in the future.

If he can recapture his best form, #5 Thin White Duke would be tough to handle on the dirt. He ran well in a couple of dirt races last fall facing legitimate competition. The only caveat is that both of those performances came over wet, sealed tracks, and the Saratoga main track may be harrowed by the time they run this race.

My top pick on dirt is #3 Step Forward. The surface switch is a bit of a guess for him, but Mark Casse sounds optimistic about him trying to dirt. His pedigree leans a little more turf and synthetic on the dam's side, but there is significant dirt the family going back a generation. He's also a son of versatile sire Speightstown, whose progeny can do anything. This horse appears to run slightly better on synthetic than turf, which gives me hope for his versatility translating to this surface. He also ran a lot better than it seems last time, as he got taken up at the start and was way out of position early before making up a ton of ground to rejoin the field at the wire. I expect him to show much more early speed this time.

Mike's Response:

Assuming the Troy stays on, the course condition is an obvious concern for Cogburn. The fact that he handled a bog winning this race last summer alleviates some of the pressure, though it is worth pointing out that he was over 7/1 that day.

I'm still not putting real money in against him. 

David's Analysis: 

Perhaps #6 Printrack will rebound with a better performance after getting dueled into defeat going 7 furlongs last time. I just don’t need to take a short price on this horse, especially as he lands in another spot that features some pace to keep him company up front.

The most obvious alternative is #2 Downtwonchalybrown, but I’m highly skeptical of that 90 Beyer he got last time when beating two rivals. His prior form makes him competitive, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price on him.

I am more interested in the two others from that July 25 Saratoga affair. #3 Got Thunder appears to be rounding back into form for David Jacobson, and he would be the beneficiary of some pace up front.

My top pick is #4 Dot’s Dollar. He really lost all chance when shuffled back in traffic approaching the quarter pole last time, and Flavien Prat just wrapped up on him once it became clear he had lost significant momentum. His prior effort for Gustavo Rodriguez would make him tough here, and he’s much more of a 6-furlong specialist, so I like him turning back a furlong from last time.

Mike's Response:

I don't know what was going on with Dot's Dollar last time, though I agree that he can easily rebound in this spot.

While I respect Printrack I do think it is worth playing against him in this race. 

Got Thunder is one of the main uses for me, and I took a more positive view of #2 Downtownchalybrown than David did. They have ridden - and placed -  this horse pretty aggressively since the claim, but he is most effective from just off the pace and that kind of trip should be available to him here.

Mike's Analysis: 

The presence of #5 Star of Mystery makes this race pretty tough to get involved in, as she is a legit favorite at a very short price. She skipped the Coronation Cup on opening weekend to face older males in the Grade 3 Quick Call and won that tougher race easily with a 106 Beyer. In her prior start she also faced older males, in the Grade 1 Jaipur. All she did that day was just miss second after a troubled trip behind Cogburn, who set a world record for the distance. There are some talented fillies in this field, but they can't beat the good Star of Mystery.

#3 Pipsy is an interesting horse in this division going forward but I won't be betting her into the favorite. 

David's Response:

With the Galway also coming off the turf, horses in the main body of the field like #1 Golden Degree and #7 Baraye could attract some support. I'm a little more supportive of Golden Degree, who is stepping up in class but is at least a proven dirt horse. Baraye ran her competitive dirt race over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill last time and she figures to encounter different going on Saturday.

The likely favorite on dirt is MTO entrant #10 Halina's Forte, and I'm not trying to beat her. She tried to chase an honest pace against superior rivals last time in the Victory Ride and just got tired. This is an easier dirt assignment than her recent stakes attempts, and I think she will appreciate this cutback in distance.