STRENGTHS: He was the 2-year-old champion of 2024 follow- ing Grade 1 victories in the American Pharoah and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and he is trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby a record six times. He earned a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Juvenile, and looked as good as ever taking the Robert Lewis in his 3-year-old debut with a 98 Beyer while easily handling Rodriguez, who returned to win the Wood Memorial with a 101 Beyer. Having a foundation to build upon is no small thing for 3-year-olds shooting for the Derby, and Citizen Bull has that advantage over several of his rivals. Baffert is likely to have him as good as can be for this race, for which he will reportedly remove the blinkers for the first time.

WEAKNESSES: His two Grade 1 wins last year came in races where he was allowed to control the pace from the start. While he won the Juvenile convincingly, he was let go at 15-1 while still having plenty to prove, and the skeptical view of that effort is he took advantage after his main pace rival broke poorly from the gate. He has been at his best when able to get comfortable on the early lead, and there appears to be plenty of other speed to deny him that trip in this year’s Derby. He was also beaten 9 3/4 lengths by Journalism when fourth in the Santa Anita Derby last time out.

BETTING VALUE: His price has extended all the way out to 20-1 on the Derby morning line following his disappointing final prep, and he might be worth a second look at bigger odds, even with the pace and running style concerns in play.

SIRE: Into Mischief, who claimed his sixth consecutive leading sire title in 2024, is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authen- tic and 2021 official winner Mandaloun. He added another feather to his cap last year when Goldencents, one of his several successful sons at stud, sired Derby winner Mystik Dan. Into Mischief, whose line is again very prominent in this Derby, first made his name as the sire of brilliantly fast runners. But, as the mares visiting him during his career have changed, he has shown the ability to sire routers as well. Some of his best progenycould sprint and route. Overall, their average winning distance is 6.8 furlongs.

DAM: Unraced No Joke is a half-sister to Moonshine Memories, a Grade 1 winner around both one and two turns as a juvenile, and a Grade 2-placed sprinter at 3. Their dam, Unenchantedevening, is a half-sister to1997 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Horse of the Year Favorite Trick, who went on to win the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and the Grade 2 Keeneland Mile on turf at 3. This is also the extended family of multiple Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law. Into Mischief has been a very good cross with broodmare sire Distorted Humor.

OUTLOOK: Citizen Bull secured his Eclipse with a two-turn win. However, his final prep effort signaled that, like some in his female family, he may have distance limitations.

STRENGTHS: Aside from a riderless debut, he hasn’t finished off the board in any of his six subsequent outings. He was campaigned as a sprinter during his 2-year-old season, but has handled stretch- ing out around two turns reasonably well this year. He matched his Beyer Speed Figure top in the Fountain of Youth, and only regressed by 2 points in the Florida Derby when beaten by a couple of leading Derby prospects. He did show the ability to sit just off the pace in that most recent start, so he’s not a one-dimensional front- runner. He has top connections in his corner, with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. being no stranger to the upper echelons of the sport.

WEAKNESSES: While consistency is his greatest strength, his lack of progression since his juvenile campaign could be considered a weakness. He’s been soundly defeated by Tappan Street and Sovereignty in his last two preps, losing ground to those rivals in the late stages. The Derby’s 10 furlongs seems like a stretch for a horse whose primary weapon is speed. He is one of several who does his best running close to the pace, and position at the front of the pack is likely to be fiercely contested.

BETTING VALUE: While his top Beyer of 91 isn’t that much slower than some others who will be shorter prices, it’s hard to envision a path to victory for this longshot. There are major questions about him negotiating the distance and dealing with a fast pace. Backers should demand a price far exceeding 50-1, and horses rarely go off that high in the Derby.

SIRE: Neolithic is by Harlan’s Holiday, sire of six-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief. Although Neolithic never won a graded stakes, he was a hard-knocking performer against champions in his division, finishing third behind Arrogate and Shaman Ghost in the Pegasus World Cup, third to Arrogate and Gun Runner in the Dubai World Cup, and third behind Gun Runner in the Woodward. Standing in Florida, many of Neolithic’s stakes performers have been in statebred or Florida Sire races. His open-company perform- ers include turf-stakes winner Dancing N Dixie, Springboard Mile winner Make It Big, and Inaugural winner Cattin.

DAM: Bold Birdie, stakes-placed sprinting on synthetic, had a maximum winning distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. Although she is the dam of four winners from as many starters, none of her foals have yet won beyond 6 1/2 furlongs. Bold Birdie is a half-sister to Quality Lass, a stakes performer sprinting on turf and synthetic, and this is the extended family of Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks winner Sharla Rae.

OUTLOOK: Like his sire, Neoequos has run well in a number of stakes without getting it done as of yet. The female side of his family, combined with the average winning distance of Neolithic’s progeny (6.6 furlongs), creates concern for his ability to handle the Derby distance.

STRENGTHS: He has shown marked improvement with each outing and went directly from a one-mile maiden score at Turfway to winning the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks going 1 1/8 miles there with an impressive wide rally, using powerful, long strides. His elite sire, Not This Time, has gotten a solid 19 percent winners in dirt routes, and his dam is by red-hot broodmare sire Tapit, a noted classic influence. Final Gambit has trained encouragingly over the dirt since relocating from Turfway to Churchill in late March. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Derby by disqualification with Mandaloun, who also was a Juddmonte homebred.

WEAKNESSES: The fast-paced Jeff Ruby Steaks set up beautifully for his deep-closing style, and he figures to have eight more rivals to deal with in the Kentucky Derby. His lack of dirt racing experience certainly isn’t ideal, and he will have to put up a much bigger Beyer Speed Figure than the 90 he got in the Jeff Ruby to get the job done.

BETTING VALUE: There has been a bit of a buzz around the handsome gray/roan because of the way he’s been training at Churchill. Odds of around 30-1 would be enticing on an entrant who’s trying to become just the second horse to win the Kentucky Derby with no dirt racing experience. The first was Animal King- dom, who won the 201

SIRE: Neolithic is by Harlan’s Holiday, sire of six-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief. Although Neolithic never won a graded stakes, he was a hard-knocking performer against champions in his division, finishing third behind Arrogate and Shaman Ghost in the Pegasus World Cup, third to Arrogate and Gun Runner in the Dubai World Cup, and third behind Gun Runner in the Woodward. Standing in Florida, many of Neolithic’s stakes performers have been in statebred or Florida Sire races. His open-company perform- ers include turf-stakes winner Dancing N Dixie, Springboard Mile winner Make It Big, and Inaugural winner Cattin.

DAM: Bold Birdie, stakes-placed sprinting on synthetic, had a maximum winning distance of 6 1/2 furlongs. Although she is the dam of four winners from as many starters, none of her foals have yet won beyond 6 1/2 furlongs. Bold Birdie is a half-sister to Quality Lass, a stakes performer sprinting on turf and synthetic, and this is the extended family of Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks winner Sharla Rae.

OUTLOOK: Like his sire, Neoequos has run well in a number of stakes without getting it done as of yet. The female side of his family, combined with the average winning distance of Neolithic’s progeny (6.6 furlongs), creates concern for his ability to handle the Derby distance.

STRENGTHS: Rodriguez comes into the Derby off a game score in the Wood Memorial, outrunning other speeds to make the lead in the opening stages and maintaining his advantage through the wire. The 101 Beyer he earned puts him right off likely favorite Journalism, who posted a figure of 102 in the Santa Anita Derby in his final prep before the first leg of the Triple Crown. Obviously, the connections are a plus, as trainer Bob Baffert has won this race six times, tying him with Ben Jones for the most Kentucky Derby victories. This colt’s proven speed means he’ll be forwardly spotted from the start, and that’s no small consideration in a 20-horse field.

WEAKNESSES: He may be quick but he has yet to prove he can rate off the pace and make up ground in the lane, and with other speed in this field he could be under pressure from the start. That’s the main knock, as he, like every other runner in here, has never gone this far, and it may be a lot to ask for him to win a race-long battle on the front end and then stave off the closers.

BETTING VALUE: He should be a square price, given the sheer volume of this field and the fact that Journalism is going to be a rela- tively strong favorite. At 8-1 or so he’s worth using in exotics, though his running style could mean he’s better off using underneath as opposed to on top as he could take the worst of it in terms of race flow.

SIRE: Authentic was a late-blooming 3-year-old, and the postponement of the 2020 Kentucky Derby due to the COVID-19 pandemic helped him. After showing talent in the spring, he got his first Grade 1 win in the Haskell in July, won the Derby in Septem- ber, was second in the Preakness in October, and won the Breeders’ Cup Classic en route to being named Horse of the Year. His foals seem to also be developing with time and want a route of ground. To date, he is the sire of two stakes winners and another five stakes- placed runners, with an average winning distance of 7.5 furlongs. Authentic is by six-time reigning leading sire Into Mischief.

DAM: Cayala, by champion sprinter Cherokee Run, was a winning sprinter herself. She is the dam of three other stakes horses, all by Into Mischief. Stakes-winning sprinter Provocateur is also Grade 1-placed around one turn. One Liner won the Grade 3 Southwest and was later second in the Pimlico Special, while Roderick was a stakes-placed juvenile. This is the family of Donn Handicap and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus and Grade 1 winner Daredevil.

OUTLOOK: As shown by Cayala’s other foals, this cross can produce either sprint or route ability. Rodriguez has shown he can stretch his speed when free-running, a scenario he is unlikely to get in the Kentucky Derby. His sire Authentic could win top-level races by being brave on the lead. It remains to be seen if this intan- gible quality is one his progeny inherit.

STRENGTHS: American Promise turned things around quickly once he added blinkers in October, improving dramatically in terms of Beyer Speed Figures. He’s worked bullets since his 7 3/4-length win last time in the Virginia Derby for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, the Hall of Fame conditioner who has won the Kentucky Derby four times. This colt showed improved speed in that victory, and that early zip should ensure he’s able to work out a forward trip in this race. That last score was his best effort in nine career starts, and he clearly comes into this race in top form with some room to improve.

WEAKNESSES: He has not yet shown that he can effectively sit off the pace and pass horses late at longer distances. His best attempt came when he was off slowly in the Southwest, but he moved prematurely and gave way late while drifting in while tiring. That could mean he gets caught too close to a fast, contested pace. The Virginia Derby victory was not against top competition, and he has never posted a triple-digit Beyer, which is what it may take to win this. In the end, it’s unlikely he’ll put up that kind of fi gure if he’s on or near the lead and the fractions are on the quick side, which is the projected pace scenario.

BETTING VALUE: He’ll be a big price, likely better than 20-1, but his running style means he’ll have his work cut out for him. I would rather side with some of the closers at comparable prices.

SIRE: Triple Crown winner Justify is represented in his third Kentucky Derby from as many crops to race, although his 2023 and 2024 runners fi nished off the board. Justify’s sire, Scat Daddy, was a versatile sire and international success. Justify has been a worthy heir with his own versatility. His ability to impart stamina is shown in European Horse of the Year City of Troy, a top-flight performer at up to 1 1/2 miles on turf, and Eclipse Award champion Just F Y I, whose biggest win came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles.

DAM: Tapella, who scored both her wins at a mile, is the dam of Hoosier Philly, who is approaching millionaire status and won the Grade 2 Golden Rod and four other stakes. Tapella is out of Sunland Oaks winner Princess Arabella, also the dam of Grade 2 Black- Eyed Susan runner-up Ulele and stakes-placed Mo Hawk. This is the family of Invisible Ink, runner-up in the 2001 Kentucky Derby. Tapit has emerged as a prominent broodmare sire, with his daugh- ters producing Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish, Belmont Stakes winner and champion Arcangelo, and Kentucky Oaks winner and champion Pretty Mischievous, among other Grade 1 winners.

OUTLOOK: Justify is a versatile sire, and this female family slants American Promise fi rmly toward two turns on dirt. From a pedigree perspective, this horse is a worthy candidate. –

STRENGTHS: Japanese horses have been a growing presence at the Kentucky Derby, and with greater interest has come improving results. Admire Daytona takes the same route that nearly worked for Forever Young last season, qualifying via victory in the U.A.E. Derby. He wasn’t nearly as dominant as his predecessor, but he did show tenacity and the ability to respond to shifting race dynamics. He led throughout in Dubai, but he isn’t a one-dimensional front- runner and used a stalking style in most of his Japanese starts. He also has plenty of experience racing in very large fields, something few of his American counterparts can claim.

WEAKNESSES: It doesn’t appear that this year’s U.A.E. Derby was a particularly strong edition of the race, the fi nal time not comparing too favorably to the Dubai World Cup. While he did fi nish on terms with Luxor Cafe as a 2-year-old, he was no match for that foe when they met more recently in the Hyacinth Stakes. Admire Daytona has achieved his best results racing up close to the pace, and the early tempo of the Kentucky Derby should be faster than anything he has encountered in prior starts.

BETTING VALUE: He is likely to get dismissed at a much bigger price than fellow Japanese contender Luxor Cafe, despite the fact they hit the wire together in a maiden race at Tokyo last Novem- ber. If he’s somewhere in the range of 30-1, there are surely worse longshots to consider in that price bracket.

SIRE: Drefong is by the long-winded turf horse Gio Ponti, a multiple Eclipse Award champion. But Drefong earned his own championship as a dirt sprinter, after winning the 2016 Breed- ers’ Cup Sprint. Standing in Japan, he has sired runners with an average winning distance of 7.3 furlongs, a number that stacks up respectably against U.S. classic sires. Overall, Drefong is the sire of fi ve stakes winners and another 15 stakes-placed runners world- wide. His top runners include Geoglyph, winner of the Japanese 2000 Guineas, and Warp Speed, second in last year’s Melbourne Cup. His son Continuar, third in the 2023 U.A.E. Derby, was entered in that year’s Kentucky Derby but scratched the week of the race.

DAM: Ice Pastel is the dam of four winners from as many starters – evenly split between one-turn and two-turn winners. Her granddam is Grade 1 winner Maplejinsky, dam of champion and Hall of Famer Sky Beauty. Maplejinsky, in turn, is out of champion Gold Beauty, dam of English Horse of the Year Dayjur. In addi- tion to multiple other international standouts, this is the family of several top-level runners in the United States, including Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Pleasant Home and Grade 1 winners Guarana, Pine Island, Point of Entry, Tale of Ekati, and Violence.

OUTLOOK: Japanese-bred and Dubai-prepared Admire Daytona brings in a pedigree of names familiar to America, many of whom had two-turn success.

STRENGTHS: Last year Japan experienced its best Kentucky Derby showing to date when an unlucky Forever Young lost a heartbreaking photo and longshot T O Password overcame his own tough trip to fi nish fi fth. The latter is perhaps the better comparison for this season’s top Japanese hope Luxor Cafe, who also qualifi ed via the Japan Road to the Derby. Not only was Luxor Cafe a far more impressive winner of the Fukuryu Stakes than T O Password a year earlier, he also has more seasoning, with six total starts, including four consecutive victories. He’s no stranger to large fi elds, having bested lineups ranging from 10 to 16 runners during that streak. This American-bred son of a Triple Crown winner has achieved his two most impressive victories in his only attempts at 1 1/8 miles, suggesting distance shouldn’t be an issue.

WEAKNESSES: As close as they came last year, Japan remains winless in the Derby, and Luxor Cafe’s particular path to the race, never having competed outside of Japan, is an unproven method. While he has displayed excellent acceleration to win his last few races, he’s generally been closing into slow paces, race dynamics he assuredly won’t encounter in Kentucky. His jockeys also have been deliberate to keep him outside of kickback in those victories, and it will be diffi cult to pull off such a trip without racing wide around Churchill’s tighter turns.

BETTING VALUE: His is one of the most diffi cult value lines to peg. He has star potential, yet he still has signifi cant obstacles to overcome, so any price below 12-1 would have to be considered poor value.

SIRE: As a stallion, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has proven successful on both dirt and turf and though he gets the odd sprinter, he generally passes on his stamina. On dirt, his best runners include Japanese stars Cafe Pharoah and Danon Pharoah, and Grade 1 winners American Theorem and As Time Goes By. On turf, his standouts include reeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Four Wheel Drive, and additional Grade/Group 1 winners Above the Curve, Harvey’s Lil Goil, and Marketsegmentation.

DAM: Mary’s Follies won the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere and Grade 3 Boiling Springs at middle distances on turf. She is the dam of 2022 Eclipse champion turf female Regal Glory, whose 12 stakes wins at up to 1 1/16 miles included four Grade 1s. When crossed with Ameri- can Pharoah, Mary’s Follies has produced dirt routers. Cafe Phar- oah was 2022 Japan’s champion dirt horse and won up to 1 3/16 miles. His full brother, Luxor Cafe, has thus far won at up to 1 1/8 miles.

OUTLOOK: Although American Pharoah has been successful as a turf sire, it would be absolutely no surprise to see a Triple Crown winner produce an American classic horse. The blend of turf and dirt in Luxor Cafe’s family should also suit Churchill Downs well.

STRENGTHS: Journalism is unbeaten in four two-turn starts and earned a whopping 108 Beyer taking the Grade 2 San Felipe, the highest fi gure in the Kentucky Derby lineup. He showed that he has gears when winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, during which he was shuffl ed back along the inside to fi fth entering the far turn before kicking in strongly through the stretch to collar the well-regarded Baeza. He should be the clear choice in the wagering. In a field loaded with speed, his stalking/mid-pack style should be an asset. His pedigree screams stamina.

WEAKNESSES: After a maiden win in a 10-horse fi eld in the fall at Del Mar, he beat just four rivals in each of his last three stakes outings. If there are no late scratches, he will line up against 19 rivals in the Derby and will have a target on his back as the one to beat, so evading traffi c might be problematic. Having never competed outside of Southern California, he will have to adapt to his new surroundings in a relatively short period of time after a long ship.

BETTING VALUE: He is widely regarded as the one to fear most, and 3-1 seems reasonable on the deserving favorite, even in such a large fi eld. That price seems attainable, in part because his capable rider, Umberto Rispoli, isn’t a household name and trainer Michael McCarthy doesn’t have the profile of a Baffert, Pletcher, or Brown.

SIRE: Curlin raced with distinction throughout the 2007 Triple Crown and also won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup. As a sire, the two-time Horse of the Year passes on stam- ina. He is the sire of 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice and 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator. Six other horses by the stal- lion have fi nished in the top three in Triple Crown races, including champion Good Magic – now a classic sire himself – who fi nished second to Triple Crown winner Justify in the 2018 Derby; and Eclipse champion fi lly Nest, second against males in the 2022 Belmont.

DAM: This is the fi rst foal for Mopotism, who won the Grade 2 La Canada at a mile and was on the board in 10 other graded stakes, including Grade 1 placings at seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Mopotism is out of a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Songster.

OUTLOOK: If you’re looking to poke holes in Derby favorite Journalism, it won’t be on pedigree. The colt is from a sireline that has been exceptionally successful in the American classics, balanc- ing out a female family that is lighter on top-level accomplishments but adds some speed to the equation. Although Journalism ships in from sunny California, Curlin and his progeny handle wet tracks as well.

STRENGTHS: Strong fi nisher has never taken a backward step on Beyer Speed Figures, and he just improved to a new top of 96 when rallying last to fi rst to become a Grade 1 winner in the Blue Grass. He does not appear to have any distance limitations, so taking on an additional furlong in the Derby should not be an issue. While he did seem to get untracked too late when defeated as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth, he proved that he can rally into a strong pace in the Blue Grass, and this running of the Derby might set up well for that running style.

WEAKNESSES: While his speed fi gures continue to trend the right way, he is not explosive, and he has yet to make the kind of big forward leap typical of talented 3-year-olds at this time of year. His recent Beyer top still leaves him several lengths behind the favorite, and his late-running style requires a clean trip in a big field.

BETTING VALUE: He is one of the tougher calls in the race, which makes the 12-1 morning-line price subject to the handicap- per’s perspective. The positive view is that he fits the race well as a closer with plenty of stamina, and one more forward move could put him squarely in the mix. Those more negative on his chances will want to hold out for a much better price.

SIRE: Liam’s Map, a son of Unbridled’s Song from the classic Unbridled line, is a half-brother to another successful sire, Not This Time. Mentally and physically, Liam’s Map did his best work as an older horse, with tactical speed he used around two turns to win the Grade 1 Woodward and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His four career Grade 1 winners are split evenly around one and two turns. Turf router Colonel Liam and Alcibiades winner Juju’s Map are joined at the top of his charts by Wicked Whisper, who won the Frizette at a one-turn mile, and Basin, who took the seven-furlong Hopeful but the following year was runner-up in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at a route.

DAM: Linda was a consistent stakes fi lly around two turns on turf, with her biggest win coming in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere. She placed in four other graded stakes. All four of her starters are winners, all at a mile or longer. Linda’s second dam, Grade 2 Santa Ana winner Beautiful Noise, is a half-sister to Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks winner Listening.

OUTLOOK: Burnham Square is from a family well suited to route on both dirt and turf, and from a family whose own racing patterns suggest the lanky colt could still have more development to come.

STRENGTHS: Well-connected Curlin colt is bred for distance, and he confi rmed he has plenty of stamina while winning the fi rst two starts of his career going long. He made his stakes debut in the Wood Memorial, which was just the third start of his career, and delivered an underrated effort while enduring a tough, wide trip in one of the fastest Derby preps. While he stays a distance, he also possesses a tactical running style and could land a comfortable trip behind an expected fast early pace.

WEAKNESSES: He didn’t make his career debut until Jan. 11 and is the least experienced colts in the fi eld with only three starts behind him. While the Wood Memorial was a fast race, it was a weak field overall, and he is going to be facing significantly tougher competition in the Derby. In addition to his lack of racing experience, trainer Todd Pletcher is reportedly planning only one breeze for Grande leading up to the race.

BETTING VALUE: He is listed at 20-1 on the morning line for the Derby. He is an intriguing horse at a bigger price and is one to keep in mind for underneath slots in exotic wagers.

SIRE: Curlin, by classic sire Smart Strike, raced with distinction throughout the 2007 Triple Crown. The Preakness was among his Grade/Group 1 wins at a route, along with the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup. As a sire, the two-time Horse of the Year passes on that stamina. He is the sire of 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice and 2016 Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Six other individuals by the stallion have finished in the top three in Triple Crown races, including Eclipse Award champion Good Magic – now a classic sire himself – who finished second to Triple Crown winner Justify in the 2018 Derby; and Eclipse champion filly Nest, second against males in the 2022 Belmont Stakes. Although he has a few outliers, Curlin’s other Eclipse champions have generally excelled at two-turn distances.

DAM: Journey Home, by multi-surface sire War Front, was a stakes winner and multiple graded stakes-placed routing on turf. She is the dam of two winners from three starters, including Ticker Tape Home, a Grade 3 winner at seven furlongs on synthetic. Journey Home is out of the multiple graded stakes-placed main-track router Soul Search. This is the family of Eclipse Award champion Pleasant Stage.

OUTLOOK: A sire that has proven his ability time and again in the American classics is matched with an eclectic female family with success at various distances and surfaces. It is often noted, and proven out, that it isn’t a bad thing to have some turf pedigree on the Churchill Downs dirt.

STRENGTHS: It took some time for this turf/synthetic special- ist to come around, and he graduated convincingly in late October at Churchill before doubling up off a layoff in another turf route, an allowance at Fair Grounds. Flying Mohawk took his talents to Turfway’s Tapeta most recently in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, in which he got the jump on the eventual winner, Final Gambit, en route to running second with the benefit of a hot pace to close behind. This third start of his form cycle could be even better. Karakontie is widely regarded as a turf sire, but his offspring have won at an excellent 20 percent clip in dirt routes. He has been work- ing well in company at Churchill with his older Grade 2-winning stablemate Honor Marie and had no shortage of dirt works at Fair Grounds over the winter.

WEAKNESSES: He got a lovely setup in the fast-paced Jeff Ruby and didn’t beat much while fi nishing 3 1/2 lengths behind a charging Final Gambit. He earned a career-high 84 Beyer in the Ruby, which is far below what it will take to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby. Trying to make his way through a huge field while receiving ample kickback over a surface on which he’s never competed seems like a daunting task.

BETTING VALUE: His form is marginally better than that of 2022 Jeff Ruby third-place finisher Rich Strike, who went on to post a shocking 80-1 upset when capturing the Kentucky Derby. A price of about 70-1 would be square on a horse who could round out the superfecta if absolutely everything goes his way.

SIRE: Karakontie was a multiple Group 1 winner in France, including the 2000 Guineas, and came to the United States to win the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile. His best offspring have, unsurpris- ingly, generally been turf horses, including last year’s multiple Grade 1 winner She Feels Pretty, an Eclipse fi nalist; Grade 1 winner Spendarella; and routers like Princess Grace and Sugoi. His best dirt runner has been Sole Volante, from his fi rst crop, who won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis and finished second in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.

DAM: This is the fi rst foal out of unplaced Bonbons Fleur, by the versatile sire Twirling Candy. The mare is out of stakes-placed America’s Blossom, making her a half-sister to multiple graded stakes-winning turf sprinter Change of Control.

OUTLOOK: This is a turf-type pedigree on both sides of the page. While the Churchill Downs dirt can be kind to this type of horse, typically there is some strong dirt ability somewhere in the pedigree. Karakontie’s foals have been best suited to routes, and Flying Mohawk may enjoy added distance.

STRENGTHS: Speed is a weapon, and front-runner East Avenue has plenty. He was gunned off his feet last out in the Blue Grass, set a fast pace, and only missed by a nose. East Avenue’s style is to take no prisoners. He lives and dies on the front end, which is also the style of Derby entrants Owen Almighty, blinkers-off Citizen Bull, and possibly Rodriguez. Except for when he stumbled and lost all chance as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite last fall at Del Mar and misfired in his comeback this spring at Fair Grounds, East Avenue has run well in every other start. His runner-up last out at Keeneland marked a return to form, with his 96 Beyer virtually reproducing his top figure of last year. Based on maturity, the 3-year-old should improve third start back in the Kentucky Derby.

WEAKNESSES: East Avenue’s speed is an attribute, except when others employ the same style. That is the dilemma, because East Avenue must cope with front-runners Owen Almighty, Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez. If they hook up, they could run each other into the ground. The two best races of East Avenue’s career were at Keeneland. It is uncertain if he can be as effective at Churchill. He ran well last summer at Ellis, but he ran poorly this spring at Fair Grounds.

BETTING VALUE: One-dimensional East Avenue offers value at 20-1. Although he must put away pace rivals with the same style, a creative argument would note that pace rival Citizen Bull is removing blinkers – to ration his speed? – and Owen Almighty is distance-challenged. East Avenue could be distance-challenged also, but at high odds, he is worth consideration.

SIRE: Medaglia d’Oro was a constant presence at the top of the game, winning the Grade 1 Travers and Donn Handicap, and finishing second in top-level events, including the Belmont, two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the Dubai World Cup. As a stallion, he is responsible for almost 200 stakes winners worldwide. Medaglia d’Oro is the sire of a classic winner in 2009 Kentucky Oaks and Preakness heroine and Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.

DAM: East Avenue is the fi rst foal out of the unraced Godolphin homebred Dance Music. Her dam, Dance Card, never missed the board, with a signature win in the Grade 1 Gazelle at 1 1/8 miles. She also turned back in distance to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, beaten just a length by champions Groupie Doll and Judy the Beauty. Dance Card is the dam of Godolphin’s 2023 Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish, two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. She also is the dam of a pair of stakes performers by Medaglia d’Oro – Endorsed and Bocephus. Ghostzapper is the broodmare sire of Triple Crown winner Justify and additional Eclipse champions Drefong and Up to the Mark.

OUTLOOK: By a classic sire and from an exceptionally classy female family, East Avenue is one of the best-bred Derby candidates.

STRENGTHS: A late-blooming maiden, Publisher’s Oaklawn stakes form was better than it appeared, for the most part. He was cut off in the stretch when in the midst of a rail rally before fading to finish seventh in the Grade 3 Southwest. He was then squeezed in midstretch while closing between rivals in the Grade 2 Rebel and was along for fourth, not far behind Sandman, who returned to take the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby over Publisher, a clear second with a career-best 95 Beyer with the addition of blinkers. He toyed with his Grade 2-winning stablemate Tiztastic in a good-looking fi ve-furlong breeze in 59.60 on April 19 at Churchill.

WEAKNESSES: He got an ideal setup when racing far off a rapid pace in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby, which enabled his stretch kick to be at its most effective. The Kentucky Derby figures to have 11 more runners than the Arkansas Derby, so he’s going to have to make his way through signifi cant traffi c if he doesn’t take the overland route. A maiden hasn’t won the Kentucky Derby since Brokers Tip in 1933, and only three maidens have ever won the race. Trainer Steve Asmussen is 0 for 26 in the Kentucky Derby.

BETTING VALUE: He has a license to be competitive if he continues to improve, and judging by the way he’s been working, that’s a viable scenario. About 30-1 would be a square price.

SIRE: Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has proven successful on both dirt and turf, giving him international popularity, and though he gets the odd sprinter, he generally passes on his stamina. On dirt, his best runners include Japanese champion Cafe Pharoah, Japan Dirt Derby winner Danon Pharoah, and Grade 1 winners American Theorem and As Time Goes By. On turf or synthetic, his standouts include European champion Van Gogh, Canadian champion Skygaze, Victoria Derby winners Goldrush Guru and Riff Rocket, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Four Wheel Drive, and additional Grade/Group 1 winners Above the Curve, Harvey’s Lil Goil, and Marketsegmentation.

DAM: This is the fi rst foal out of Indian Pride, who was a stakes winner and Grade 2-placed at seven furlongs on dirt. She is a half- sister to Canadian Horse of the Year Biofuel, a multiple graded stakes winner at two turns on synthetic and second in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks on dirt, and Sovereign Award champion Tu Endie Wei, who did her best work sprinting on both synthetic and dirt. Another generation back, this is the family of 1989 Arkansas Derby winner Dansil.

OUTLOOK: This pedigree is a blend of stamina over speed. Indian Pride scored her fi rst stakes win as a 4-year-old, making it no surprise that Publisher, who comes to the Derby as a maiden, is still developing.

STRENGTHS: Tiztastic looks like he wants the 1 1/4-mile distance. He’s one of just two in the fi eld who have won beyond 1 1/8 miles, accomplishing that last out at 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. Since the race, he’s been fl attered, with third-place finisher Instant Replay coming back to win the Bathhouse Row at Oaklawn. Tiztastic has been in 10-, 12- and 13-horse fields, so he has experience racing in a large group of horses, conditions he will encounter in the Kentucky Derby. For the task, he will have the guidance of jockey Joel Rosario, who won this race in 2013 aboard Orb. Tiztastic’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, is the all-time winningest trainer in North America. In other matters of experience, Tiztastic leads the field in earnings with $1.5 million. He also has familiarity with the local main track, as he is multiple stakes-placed at Churchill.

WEAKNESSES: He’s an established closer and, as such, is dependent on pace. He will need honest fractions up front to fuel his late run. He also needs a clean trip. When he makes his bid, he needs clear sailing, avoiding traps that could impede his momentum. That will be difficult in an anticipated field of 20 horses. From a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, he’s not yet hit triple digits like Journalism and Rodriguez.

BETTING VALUE: Excellent. He’s coming off a win in a major prep, but he might be in the 12-1 to 15-1 range. And, as one who should like the distance, he’s both a win bet and one for underneath in the exotics.

SIRE: Tiz the Law, who won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at 2, continued to develop the following year. He won the 2020 Belmont Stakes, although it was at 1 1/8 miles and around one turn in the pandemic-shuffled Triple Crown. He later showed his classic- distance mettle by winning the Travers Stakes and finishing second in the Kentucky Derby, both at 1 1/4 miles. Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic is one of three graded stakes winners from Tiz the Law’s first crop, and the other two, Non Compliant and Scythian, both won beyond a mile as well.

DAM: Unraced Keesha is the dam of four winners from as many starters, including Interpolate, a stakes winner at seven furlongs. She is a half-sister to stakes-winning turf miler Steady On and Group 3-winning turf sprinter Shumoos. Keesha’s granddam is Grade 1 Spinaway winner Strategic Maneuver. Tapit has emerged as a stellar broodmare sire, with his daughters producing Eclipse Award champions Cody’s Wish, Arcangelo, and Pretty Mischievous.

OUTLOOK: On the surface, this female family’s sprint prowess provides some pause. But this pedigree has a double dose of Tapit – Tiz the Law, by Constitution, is a grandson of the classic sire. Tapit is a proven stamina source, siring four winners of the Belmont.

STRENGTHS: He goes out for 2024 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek, so he has a conditioner who knows what it takes to win this race. There are stamina influences all over his pedigree, with Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame as his sire and a dam by Commissioner, who just missed in the Belmont Stakes. His speed figures suggest his form is trending in the right direction as he has produced a new Beyer top in each of his last three starts.

WEAKNESSES: He accrued most of his qualifying points in one of the weakest prep races, the Virginia Derby, which has no prior history of producing Derby results as a new points race this season. Even in that career highlight he was badly overshadowed by runaway winner American Promise and barely held off inferior rivals for second. He has finished off the board in all three of his graded stakes attempts, including the Grade 1 Blue Grass, in which he was soundly defeated by fellow Derby contenders Burnham Square and East Avenue. His career-best Beyer of 90 ranks among the lowest in this field.

BETTING VALUE: The 2022 Derby upset pulled off by outsider Rich Strike has infl uenced subsequent editions of this race in myriad ways. It not only tempts connections to run their inferior prospects, but also gives false hope to bettors looking to make life- changing scores. In any normal race, backers of a horse as over- matched as Render Judgment would be looking for fair value in the vicinity of 100-1 odds. Yet in two Derby renewals since Rich Strike’s shocker, no horse has drifted above 50-1.

SIRE: Blame was one of the most consistent male dirt route horses of this era, with his multiple Grade 1 wins in 2010 including the Stephen Foster, Whitney, and his thrilling Breeders’ Cup Classic victory over the great Zenyatta. As a sire, he has had the odd outlying sprinter, like Grade 1 Ballerina winner Marley’s Freedom. But generally, his top-level runners have come at longer distances, including French Oaks winner Sengal; Grade 1-winning fi llies Abscond, Fault, and Wet Paint; and Arkansas Derby winner Nadal.

DAM: This is the first foal for Barbara Gordon, whose dam is a half-sister to three stakes winners in Canada, led by millionaire Sovereign Award champion Basqueian, the 1994 Queen’s Plate winner. Maker’s Mark Mile winner Karelian is the only Grade 1 winner under Barbara Gordon’s fi rst four dams.

OUTLOOK: Blame was an exceptional runner who has been a consistent sire and imparts stamina. However, this family is generally lighter on black-type accomplishment. Such things don’t bother trainer Kenny McPeek, long noted for selecting exceptional athletes with unfashionable pedigrees.

STRENGTHS: He went on a four-race win streak this winter, and though that run came to an end in the Arkansas Derby last time out he posted one of the best figures of his career. He has proven he has the versatility to either race on the lead or come from off the pace, and that will come in handy as 20 runners will attempt to get position from the outset. It also means he can adapt to any pace scenario, and with rapid splits likely it should mean he is well spotted to make a bid in the lane.

WEAKNESSES: Outside of his Rebel score – a race where he benefited from an ideal setup and a clean trip – his Beyers are generally just not good enough for him to win this race. He failed to move forward in the Arkansas Derby, when he went 1 1/8 miles, the longest he’s ever gone, and that was despite ideal positioning behind some very fast fractions. He may have moved prematurely in that test, and that doesn’t bode well for his ability to make the last run at this extended distance as he’ll need to improve upon that race to win this.

BETTING VALUE: Figures to be between 10-1 and 15-1, which seems fair, and the fact that he could fall into a perfect stalking trip makes him one to consider for exotics, though his light speed figures make others likely for the top spot.

SIRE: Coal Front is that rare horse from the A.P. Indy line – the great stallion is his great-grandsire – who wanted to run one turn. Although he could stretch somewhat, winning the Grade 3 Razor- back, his biggest wins came in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile, Grade 2 Amsterdam, Grade 3 Gallant Bob, and Grade 3 Mr. Prospector. The consistent Coal Battle is one of his top runners, along with Arkansas champion Haulin Ice, a multiple stakes winner at up to seven furlongs, and Crazy Mason, recent winner of the Grade 2 Carter, also at seven furlongs. The average winning distance of his progeny is 6.5 furlongs.

DAM: Wolfblade, a stakes winner at Charles Town, was a rock-solid mare, racing from ages 2 to 5 with a record of 39-9-5-9. However, she only won at up to fi ve furlongs. Coal Battle is her first foal. The mare is out of stakes-placed Venice Queen, dam of three winners from as many starters, including stakes-placed Campania. You have to go under Wolfblade’s fourth dam to fi nd a Grade 1 winner, and that is Malibu winner M One Rifl e.

OUTLOOK: This is a family of tough, consistent, respectable racehorses, and Coal Battle certainly fits that description. However, the family’s two-turn ability also may be limited.

STRENGTHS: Late-running Sandman enters with a foundation of eight starts and ascending speed figures. A come-from-behind winner of the Arkansas Derby with a career-best number last out, Sandman meets a Kentucky Derby fi eld with sufficient pace to flatter his closing rally. Even his third-place fi nish in the Rebel two starts back was better than it looks. That day, the Oaklawn surface was biased toward inside speed. Sandman bucked the bias, rallied wide, and missed by less than two lengths. Indications are he will stay 1 1/4 miles in a Derby that could set up for his closing style.

WEAKNESSES: Sandman is still green in the stretch. He ducked out from a left-handed whip last out from jockey Jose Ortiz, who is now aware of the idiosyncrasy. Sandman also benefited from a hot pace, and the runner-up, Publisher, is a maiden who was unplaced in two previous stakes. Sandman has been training and racing an entire year without a break. His fi rst published work was last April. Does he have another forward move off a career-best? Lastly, the lowest finishes by Sandman were his three starts at Churchill Downs: fifth, fifth, and a distant third. Sandman needs luck to weave through a large field. He may have no choice but to lose ground rallying wide, same as in the Arkansas Derby, but against tougher company.

BETTING VALUE: At 10-1 odds, Sandman would offer value in the win pool. Leave him out of vertical exotics at your own risk. He will roll late, and could easily hit the board.

SIRE: Tapit is a three-time North American leading sire who perennially remains in the continent’s top 10. He also is the most successful sire in the modern history of the Belmont Stakes, with four winners in Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021). Essential Quality, whose five Grade 1 wins also included the Travers at 1 1/4 miles, is one of the six individual Eclipse Award champions for Tapit. All were multiple Grade 1 winners around two turns on dirt, solidifying Tapit’s reputation as a stamina source from the powerful A.P. Indy line.

DAM: Distorted Music, a winner at up to 1 1/16 miles, is the dam of three winners from four starters, and her other two winners, Grade 3-winning miler She Can’t Sing and Bernin Tune, also are from the A.P. Indy line. Distorted Music’s dam, Music Room, is a half-sister to Music Note, a five-time Grade 1 winner both sprint- ing and routing who is now a multiple stakes producer, with her foals led by Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide. Music Note is a half-sister to French classic winner Musical Chimes, also a Grade 1 winner in the United States.

OUTLOOK: Sandman, a seven-figure purchase last year, has stamina to spare on both sides of his pedigree.

STRENGTHS: Sovereignty enters the Derby with improving form, winning connections, established class, and affi nity for the Churchill surface. Sovereignty was still a maiden last fall when he jumped into the Grade 3 Street Sense, his only start at Churchill. He dominated the race, leaving behind subsequent graded winners Tiztastic and Sandman. Sovereignty enters off two solid recent starts. He won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and fi nished second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Though he lost as the Florida Derby favorite, circumstances were against Sovereignty. The pace was tepid, and jockey Manny Franco said the ground broke away from him at the three-eighths and five-sixteenths poles. Sovereignty is reunited with Junior Alvarado, who missed the Florida Derby with an injury. Sovereignty’s closing style suits the likely pace scenario.

WEAKNESSES: Based on Beyers, one could question if Sover- eignty is fast enough. His numbers this year leave room for doubt: 92 last out, 95 his previous start. Ten others in the Derby field earned a higher last-start fi gure than Sovereignty. As with every late- runner in a big field, Sovereignty will need luck weaving through traffic. Considering his speed-figure shortfall, Sovereignty cannot afford to lose ground, but if he tries to save ground and stays inside, he must get lucky.

BETTING VALUE: Sovereignty holds no advantage, yet he is widely forecast as second favorite. Fair odds for Sovereignty would be 10-1. It is uncertain if his odds will be that high. Sovereignty has underlay written all over him, win or lose.

SIRE: Into Mischief, who claimed his sixth consecutive leading sire title in 2024, is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and 2021 offi cial winner Mandaloun. He added another feather to his cap last year when Goldencents, one of his several successful sons at stud, sired Derby winner Mystik Dan. Into Mischief, whose line is again very prominent in this Derby, first made his name as the sire of brilliantly fast runners like Eclipse champion sprinters Covfefe and Gamine. But, as the mares visiting him during his career have changed, he has shown the ability to sire routers as well. Overall, his progeny’s average winning distance is 6.8 furlongs.

DAM: Unraced Crowned is the dam of two winners from three starters, all by Into Mischief. In addition to Sovereignty, she has Jane Grey, a winner at seven furlongs. Crowned’s first three dams are all stakes winners. She is out of millionaire Mushka, who won at up to 1 3/8 miles. Her granddam is four-time Grade 1 winner Lakeway. Bernardini has left his mark as an outstanding brood- mare sire who can impart stamina.

OUTLOOK: This is a classy, route-type female family that represents the type of mares Into Mischief began garnering as his reputation soared. Sovereignty, from one of the nation’s leading programs, is bred in the purple.

STRENGTHS: He has talent. From just four starts, he’s run second in a pair of major preps, the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby makes him one of just a few in the Kentucky Derby to have raced beyond 1 1/8 miles. He stalked the pace, and his natural speed could lend itself to a similar trip in the Kentucky Derby, one that might help keep him out of trouble in the anticipated fi eld of 20. For the Kentucky Derby, he’s following the same training pattern that he did going into the Risen Star and Louisi- ana Derby in that he’s been working over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.

WEAKNESSES: He is light on racing experience, with just four starts. He’s also a May foal and will not actually turn 3 until about a week after the Kentucky Derby. He’s run well on dirt, but he’s not yet won on the surface as his lone career victory came on the synthetic track at Turfway. He also has never raced at Churchill Downs.

BETTING VALUE: He could be higher than 20-1 and has value for those willing to take a chance on a lightly raced runner who is just starting to come into his own.

SIRE: Millionaire Preservationist, by Arch, is from the female family of champion Queena and other prominent routers. He was at his best with time, not winning his maiden until age 4; and, although he was quick-footed enough to do that at six furlongs, he was truly at his best with distance. As a 6-year-old in 2019, he won the Grade 2 Suburban at 1 1/4 miles and Grade 1 Woodward at 1 1/8 miles. Chunk of Gold is from the second crop of Preservationist, who is the sire of four stakes winners to date. They are Antiquarian, winner of last year’s Grade 3 Peter Pan at 1 1/8 miles; Band of Gold, winner of last year’s Martha Washington at 1 1/16 miles; In a Jam, a stakes winner on synthetic who is Grade 2-placed at a mile on turf; and West Virginia-bred Diakonissa, a multiple stakes- winning sprinter in restricted company.

DAM: Play for Gold is the dam of three winners, including Band of Gold. The full sister to Chunk of Gold is a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Play for Gold is a half-sister to My Boy Jack, multiple Grade 3 winner of the Southwest and Lexington. Play for Gold’s second dam is graded stakes-winning dirt router Gold n Delicious.

OUTLOOK: This is a steady, serviceable pedigree – a good description of Chunk of Gold himself. While the female line seems slanted more toward middle distances, Preservationist could add some stamina.

STRENGTHS: Owen Almighty is a reliable horse in that he’s crossed the wire first or second in six of his seven career starts while making appearances in six stakes. He reached a pinnacle in March, when he won the Tampa Bay Derby over Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick. Owen Almighty wired the field that afternoon, and his natural speed could help keep him out of trouble in the anticipated field of 20 on Saturday. He also has been effective from just off the pace, and trainer Brian Lynch said that he would prefer to rate behind the leaders. The seasoned jockey Javier Castellano has the mount, and he will be looking for his second Kentucky Derby after winning in 2023 aboard Mage. Owen Almighty is proven over Churchill’s main track. He won his career debut over the surface last June and would go on to run second in the Iroquois in September. He’s worked over the local strip in advance of the Derby.

WEAKNESSES: He finished off the board in his fi nal prep, the Blue Grass, although the Beyer Speed Figure of 90 that he earned rivals his career-high number of 93. His regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will be teaming with Publisher in the Kentucky Derby. Distance is a question for the son of Speightstown, as Owen Almighty has not won beyond 1 1/16 miles.

BETTING VALUE: He will be double-digit odds for the first time in his career, and given his consistent nature, he seems like one who would be at least worth using underneath in the exotics.

SIRE: Speightstown was the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse Award champion. Many of his top runners inherited his speed, including millionaire and Sovereign Award champion sprinter Essence Hit Man, Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen winners Reynaldothewizard and Switzerland, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Godolphin Mile winner Tamarkuz, Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town, and Grade 1 winners Dance to Bristol, Flagstaff, Lexitonian, Poseidon’s Warrior, Prince of Monaco, and Rock Fall. He has sired high-class winners around two turns, on both dirt and turf, when paired with the right female families, including Jockey Club Gold Cup winners Haynesfield and Olympiad and Grade 1 winners Char- latan, Force the Pass, Golden Ticket, Seek Again, and Sharing.

DAM: This is the first foal out of Tempers Rising, who was second in the 2020 Fair Grounds Oaks. She is a half-sister to Mac the Man, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter on Turfway Park’s Tapeta. Their dam if a half-sister to Grade 3-winning sprinter Wolf Brigade.

OUTLOOK: There is some two-turn ability in a family with plenty of speed, and Owen Almighty does own a graded win this year around two turns. However, past comments by trainer Brian Lynch, and his initial, publicly stated preference for a shorter race, give cause for pause.

STRENGTHS: Four starts into his career, Baeza already ranks among the country’s fastest 3-year-olds. His 101 Beyer last out ranks behind only Journalism (108, 102) among the Derby entrants. Baeza has improved in each successive start for trainer John Shirreffs, who won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo. Following his career-best effort fi nishing second in the Santa Anita Derby, Baeza has trained well. He breezed a half-mile only nine days after the Santa Anita Derby. Baeza might have another forward move. The jockey switch to Flavien Prat cannot be overstated. Prat can get horses to relax and settle, which Baeza did not do last out.

WEAKNESSES: Baeza has started only four times and is still somewhat green. In his maiden win two starts back, he drifted in sharply in the stretch. He made a similar move when he found himself on the lead turning for home in the Santa Anita Derby. To his credit, he fought back after Journalism passed him. After the wire, Baeza actually galloped out in front of Journalism.

BETTING VALUE: Baeza has received much attention this spring, partly due to the points system. Baeza earned only 37.5 points for second in the Santa Anita Derby and is still an also-eligi- ble after the draw. If he makes the fi eld, Baeza will be on everyone’s radar. At 6-1 or higher, Baeza represents value. Anything more is a bonus; anything less is an underlay.

SIRE: McKinzie, by Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, was a multiple Grade 1 winner around two turns, taking the Los Alami- tos Futurity, Pennsylvania Derby, and Whitney. Overall, he won seven graded stakes and placed in six more from ages 2 to 5. That suggested he could have good 2-year-olds who would continue on, and the first step was achieved with his first crop last year, with Grade 1 winners Chancer McPatrick and Scottish Lassie.

DAM: Puca, a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turf router Finnegans Wake, was Grade 2-placed in the Gazelle, but her broodmare career is where she has really excelled. Puca is the dam of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch, making her one of just nine mares to ever produce two winners of American Triple Crown races and earning her Broodmare of the Year honors. Along with Mage, who earned additional Grade 1 placings, and Dornoch, who also won the Grade 1 Haskell, Puca’s other two foals to race are both stakes performers as well – Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza and multiple stakes-placed Gunning.

OUTLOOK: Baeza, sold for seven figures as a yearling, has always been regarded as a classic-type prospect, and that impression has grown as the family has added honors in the last 18 months. He should have an affinity for added distance. Street Sense is a solid wet-track sire, and if he passes that quality through McKinzie it could help Baeza on a trip to unpredictable Kentucky.