LEXINGTON, Ky. – A hot weanling market has been one of the drivers of double-digit gains in key economic indicators at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale. So, just how hot is it? “Scalding,” Denali Stud’s Conrad Bandoroff said. “The demand for yearlings and the demand for weanlings is voracious.” Bandoroff spoke after a Denali-consigned Gun Runner colt sold for $2.2 million to rank among Keeneland November’s all-time leading weanling prices. “That was bonkers,” he said. “That was incredible. It was a perfect storm, and the right people got on him, and that was a magical result.” Things started off hot at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky fall selected mixed sale on Monday, which kicked off a week of high-profile mixed-sale activity in Lexington. Led by an $800,000 Justify filly, the average price for a small selection of weanlings at the sale was $204,646, up 16 percent from $175,867 for the section the year prior. The temperature only went up at Keeneland November, which started Tuesday, and where more weanlings are on offer simply due to the larger sale. Through Books 1 and 2, representing the first three days of an eight-session sale, 13 weanlings have sold for $500,000 or more – compared to four during the entire sale last year. This year’s weanlings are led by the $2.2 million Gun Runner colt, purchased by bloodstock agent Donato Lanni for Zedan Racing; and a $1.25 million Curlin filly, purchased by trainer Wesley Ward for an undisclosed client. The Gun Runner colt was the fourth-highest-priced weanling colt ever sold at Keeneland November, behind $2.7 million Amour Malheureux to Globe Equine Management in 2006, $2.6 million Declarationofpeace to Coolmore in 2015, and $2.4 million Carpocrates to Dromoland Farm in 2003. Counting fillies, led by the North American-record-priced Lady Take Charge, at $3.2 million to Whisper Hill Farm in 2015, the colt was the ninth-highest-priced weanling overall at this sale. The strong weanling marketplace comes on the heels of a blockbuster yearling sale season from July to October. Changes in the tax code that benefit Thoroughbred owners, strong purse structures in many jurisdictions, and an increased interest in ownership fueled by celebrity participants and other influencers were all cited as factors in driving that yearling marketplace – and many of those same factors apply to the weanling marketplace. Tony Lacy, Keeneland’s vice president of sales, also noted that a continually shrinking foal crop comes into play. “The one sort of issue we have is lack of inventory,” Lacy said. “So there’s a supply-and-demand issue. The demand is outstripping the supply by a great deal.” Some buyers see an opportunity to get ahead of the curve. “I think you are starting to see some smart buyers that are starting to dip into the weanling market,” Bandoroff said. “They’re starting to say, ‘I can’t buy in the yearling market, I’m getting priced out,’ and they’re having success with coming to the weanling market and saying, ‘My dollars can go a little further.’ ” Lanni said he wasn’t changing his strategy to specifically target weanlings for Amr Zedan, who typically buys yearlings and 2-year-olds, and was attracted to the Gun Runner colt as a strong individual. However, he did acknowledge that he probably got a better price by buying the colt as a weanling. “I think this is the kind of horse who, in September, would probably have brought double,” Lanni said. “You’ve just gotta be open-minded at every sale when you see one that fits the profile.” In his post-sale comments, Bandoroff suggested that consignors have come to the weanling marketplace with confidence, knowing they can set strong reserves and have options for horses who do not sell in a yearling marketplace expected to retain strength in 2026. “We brought him to the November sale thinking that he could be a premium offering and that he would suit some end users,” Bandoroff said. “We thought if we could bring him over here and get yearling money, then we would sell him, and if not, we’d be very much happy to watch him grow up and take him to a yearling sale.” Randy Hartley, whose Hartley/DeRenzo Thoroughbreds purchased a $550,000 Cody’s Wish filly intended to race for Tom Durant, said the strength of the yearling marketplace also is impacting the supply and demand in the weanling marketplace. “There are less babies here because the yearling market was so good,” Hartley said at Keeneland “I feel like a lot of people are hanging on to stuff” to sell as yearlings. At Fasig-Tipton, 65 weanlings were sold compared to 79 last year, by design, leading to the increased average. Also showing the strong demand, the buyback rate for that segment of the marketplace was an outstanding 11 percent, compared to 31 percent last year. “We took a big slice out of the weanlings in terms of the numbers from last year to this year, and that was primarily by design,” Fasig-Tipton president Boyd Browning Jr. said. “We felt like after last year we needed to tighten up the parameters of what we accepted in terms of the weanlings, and I think the market reacted very positively overall.” :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.