Welsch: Intense Holiday heading into Derby as good as any
This looks like a Derby in which you have to take a stand, either for or against the favorite, California Chrome, and after watching him train here Wednesday, I’m going to stand against a short-priced favorite in a seemingly wide-open 20-horse field.
Of the half-dozen or so horses I thought looked and trained the best over the past couple of weeks, Intense Holiday was certainly as good as, if not better than, any. His final Derby work, following a couple of sharp moves at Palm Meadows, was probably his best yet, reaffirming the impression that he’s a horse who seems to be peaking at the right time. He’s also coming off two good races, a career-best effort in the Risen Star Stakes followed by a sneaky-good race in the Louisiana Derby that was compromised by an unlucky trip.
He possesses a running style that should be to his advantage in a Derby that figures to feature a legitimate pace scenario, and although he does have his idiosyncrasies, I’ll hold my breath and hope he can keep a straight path that will lead him into the winner’s circle Saturday.
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Medal Count is a different and much-improved horse from the one I watched train all winter in Florida, and he has continued to flourish on a daily basis since his big effort from a tough post in the Blue Grass Stakes. Three races in four weeks is not an ideal scenario, and his ability to handle dirt certainly is a question mark, but he’s a horse on top of his game who figures to offer some real betting value.
Danza is undoubtedly a bounce candidate off his huge effort in the Arkansas Derby, returning on just three weeks’ rest, but he has given every indication that that might not be the case with the way he’s trained since arriving in Kentucky. A repeat of his last puts him right in the thick of this one.
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Samraat has never run a bad race, he looks good physically, and his consistency makes it hard to keep him out of the equation. Hoppertunity was going to be one of my top choices coming off a couple of sharp local works and what appeared to be a true prep race in the Santa Anita Derby, but I wasn’t happy with the way he came out of his most recent work when returning to the track Wednesday, so I’ve reluctantly downgraded him in the pecking order in the one race a horse has to be at his 100 percent best to win.
I can’t fault either Tapiture or Candy Boy for the way they’ve trained here this past week and would not be surprised to see either make a big statement Saturday.
