For the first day of the big holiday weekend, Saturday’s stakes schedule is pretty light. There are but three Grade 3, $100,000 events, and Arlington has two of them – the Arlington Classic and Arlington Matron. The other is the $100,000 Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. Saturday is also California Gold Rush Day at Santa Anita, with the $200,000 Snow Chief and $200,000 Melair topping a card that includes three other statebred stakes. Arlington Matron Although this is a terrific betting race with plenty of options, No Fault of Mine is much the filly to beat. She’s lightly raced for a 4-year-old – she has made only eight starts – but she has shown ability while finishing worse than second only once. Most importantly, No Fault of Mine is 2 for 2 over Arlington’s Polytrack, the surface she returns to Saturday, and a nice win most recently in a quality third-level allowance race on turf at Keeneland says she’s coming into this in top form. There are few faults with No Fault of Mine in the context of this race, with the exception that her odds might not be appealing. No Fault of Mine was well bet in every one of her outings, and that’s likely to be the case once again. No Fault of Mine is a prime win contender, but she won’t offer value, which is something required in an open contest such as this one. I’m going with Personal Diary. Look, I know that Personal Diary has made all but two of her 21 career starts on turf, and after she finished ninth of 10 in the Bewitch Stakes last time out at 20-1, this surface switch has the scent of connections grasping for ways to make their mare more productive. At this point in her career, Personal Diary, the winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks two years ago, looks like she may no longer be competitive in graded turf stakes. Nevertheless, Personal Diary still has a license to perform well in this spot. For one, the two starts she did not make on turf came on synthetic surfaces, and she handled the footing well in one of those outings. Her first try on synthetic came in the 2013 Alcibiades, in which she was simply overmatched, going off at 56-1 in just her third career start. But in her other synthetic try, in an allowance race at Del Mar in 2014, Personal Diary was a most unlucky loser, missing by a head after being blocked from the top of the stretch to midstretch. Moreover, Personal Diary showed that she could still be effective when she won an allowance race at Keeneland just two starts back off a five-month layoff. And the fact that that race was at 1 1/2 miles is noteworthy. There are many entrants in this race who are big question marks at the nine-furlong distance. Personal Diary is one of the few here who will have no trouble with the trip. Snow Chief Stakes I am loath to include six-horse races in the Warrior, but I’m making an exception here because pickings are slim stakes-wise Saturday and, frankly, I don’t have alternatives. Also, it’s worth taking a shot against Ralis at a short price. :: CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH: Buy pps, wager on Saturday's card Ralis won the Grade 1 Hopeful last summer, and after six straight starts in graded stakes, he now takes a massive class drop to face California-breds. But this will be Ralis’s turf debut, and while he has some grass in his immediate pedigree, there is no guarantee he will like turf or the nine-furlong distance. Tough It Out finished second to Gold Rush Dancer in the Silky Sullivan Stakes most recently but lost by only a little more than a length after being three to four wide throughout, while Gold Rush Dancer had a perfect inside-out trip. I’m taking Tough It Out to turn the tables. Arlington Classic Surgical Strike is a personal pet. He was a winning Warrior play in the Battaglia Memorial three starts back, I picked him again when he was a gaining third in the Spiral Stakes two back, and used him in exotics at 15-1 when he was third in the American Turf most recently, an effort that towers over this field. Surgical Strike is no secret anymore, and that will be reflected on the tote board Saturday. But he’s a likely winner in this spot.