Weekend Warrior for Saturday, May 14: Picks for Man o' War, Beaugay, Decathlon
There is life after the Kentucky Derby, and Belmont Park proves it with a Saturday card that includes four graded stakes. The Grade 1, $400,000 Man o’ War is the ostensible feature, but there is also the Grade 2, $250,000 Ruffian; the Grade 2, $200,000 Peter Pan; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay. The only other graded stakes Saturday is the Grade 3, $100,000 Lazaro Barrera at Santa Anita.
Man o’ War Stakes
Kaigun and Wake Forest, the one-two finishers in last month’s Pan American at Gulfstream, are probably the two to beat. But neither is so imposing that you couldn’t look elsewhere.
Kaigun was a bit of a surprise in the Pan American mainly because he is known to finish second more often than he wins. In fact, he came back with a narrowly beaten second in the Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland in his most recent outing. Surprisingly, Kaigun was put into a drive about a half-mile from home in the Pan American and yet still prevailed. Despite Kaigun’s fine form, I can’t take a horse who is that camera shy.
As for Wake Forest, yes, he had to wait a bit for room on the far turn in the Pan American. He was also making his first start since an okay sixth in the Arlington Million last August. Still, as someone who needed Wake Forest like oxygen in the Pan American, he had no business losing that race, not to Kaigun, and not after getting a dream run up the rail through the stretch.
I can’t resist Morandi here. I don’t know if Morandi can still run the way he once did in his native France, but I do know that he had no shot whatsoever to show what he can do in his two U.S. starts, and his price should be big enough to make the risk of finding out worthwhile.
Morandi was the even-money favorite in his U.S. debut in an allowance race at Belmont last July and was making an advance on the inside nearing the stretch when he was impeded, stumbled, and then was virtually eased. Morandi reappeared last month in a salty allowance race at Keeneland but was blocked behind horses on the inside for much of the stretch run, never having an opportunity to cut loose.
What makes Morandi so intriguing is that he has back races, such as his Group 1 romp as a 2-year-old or his excellent second of 19 in the French Derby at 3, that would crush this field. Moreover, I find it most interesting that even though Morandi hasn’t been able to do much running so far in this country, trainer Chad Brown still chose to spot him aggressively in this race, and Javier Castellano will ride him back. I take that as a sign of confidence.
Beaugay Stakes
It’s interesting that they’re pressing on with Ball Dancing here after a dismal comeback in March, and she hasn’t run a representative race in 13 months. But Brown also trains her, so you have to respect this perseverance.
Recepta is very interesting. She had no chance against the brilliant Tepin in the Jenny Wiley Stakes last month in her seasonal debut, and she was too close to the early pace to boot. But Recepta seems much better at a flat mile than this 1 1/16-mile distance.
My Miss Sophia is my play. Not only is My Miss Sophia plenty good enough – she was an excellent third behind Dacita and Tepin in the Ballston Spa last summer prior to a bad-trip third to Tepin in the First Lady – she is also the controlling speed in a race lacking real pace.
Decathlon Stakes
This opening-day feature at Monmouth was won last year by A. P. Indian, and he’s back for more. However, when A. P. Indian won last year, it was with the aid of an inside speed bias. We won’t know about any potential biases Saturday until we see some races, but since inside speed at Monmouth is rarely bad, I’m going with the inside speed in this Decathlon, Seeking the Sherif.
Seeking the Sherif comes into this off two straight front-running victories at Santa Anita, earning competitive Beyer Speed Figures, and now steps up in his first start off the David Jacobson claim, a positive sign.