The long run-up to the Kentucky Derby concludes Saturday with the final two qualifying-points preps: the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, which offers 100 Kentucky Derby points just to the winner, and the Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington at Keeneland, which offers 20 points to the winner. There are also some significant undercard races at each track, including Keeneland’s Grade 1, $350,000 Jenny Wiley, which came up absolutely loaded, and the Grade 2, $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap and the Grade 3, $400,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at Oaklawn. :: Kentucky Derby advance PPs are now available! Lexington Stakes My Boy Jack, winner of the Southwest Stakes two starts back and a close third in the Louisiana Derby most recently, was not originally scheduled to run here. But his hand was forced when the results of recent Kentucky Derby preps landed him short of the points needed to ensure a berth in the starting Derby field. If My Boy Jack is to put himself on the right side of the 20-horse Derby line, he must finish either first or second Saturday, and even then things have to break favorably for him in the points-rich Arkansas Derby. I’m not a fan of horses running in races for which they weren’t originally intended. Also, he drew post 12 – which is never a picnic in a middle-distance routes. Those issues are only part of the reason I’m standing against My Boy Jack. He benefitted from a strong rail bias when he won the Southwest, and had an ideal pace setup when he was close in the Louisiana Derby. He actually had no excuse not to win. I just feel My Boy Jack looks better on paper than he actually is. Greyvitos showed real ability winning the Bob Hope and Springboard Mile in his first two starts with blinkers. But this will be his first start off a four-month absence due to a knee chip, and I need to see one from him before I buy in. Honor Up is my pick to upset. Honor Up has faced only New York-breds in his five starts, but was a game second two starts back to Audible, winner of the Holy Bull and Florida Derby and one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. And while it is true Audible became a much better horse after beating Honor Up, Honor Up came back to win his most recent outing by almost 12 lengths. Honor Up is reminiscent of Hofburg, who ran so well when second in the Florida Derby, in that he’s going straight into a stakes off a maiden win, an unusually aggressive move for their Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. It’s also intriguing that Honor Up winds up in this spot and not the first-level allowance route he could have run in on the Keeneland undercard. Jenny Wiley Stakes It would be easy to make a strong case here for Cambodia, or Off Limits, or Sistercharlie, or La Coronel, or Proctor’s Ledge – or Fourstar Crook, who in her 2018 bow beat three of those horses when she won the Hillsborough, the strongest race run for female turf horses so far this year. But Dona Bruja is the one I want in this war. Dona Bruja did not compete in Tampa’s Hillsborough after winning the Endeavour, the local springboard to that event. But she was terrific winning the Endeavour by four big lengths after making all the pace, which was a revelation considering the late kick she showed last year winning the Mint Julep and Modesty, and finishing a close, dead-heat second in the Beverly D. Clearly, Dona Bruja can win from anywhere on the course, so she can get first run on any of her chief rivals Saturday if she chooses. Arkansas Derby The undefeated Magnum Moon, very impressive winner of last month’s Rebel, will be very hard to beat at a short price. But for me, the other horse is Quip, who took a big step forward Beyer-wise when he won the Tampa Bay Derby in his 3-year-old bow. And that win was flattered last week when Vino Rosso and Flameaway, who both lost to Quip in Tampa, came back to win the Wood Memorial and finish second in the Blue Grass. In an attempt to turn a short price into something fairly worthwhile, my play here is a Magnum Moon/Quip exacta box, with a hard press of Magnum Moon over Quip.