Weekend Warrior: Picks for Stephen Foster Stakes, Wise Dan Stakes, Thor's Echo Handicap for June 15, 2019

NEW YORK – All of Saturday’s major stakes racing happens in the evening, and at Churchill Downs. The Grade 2, $600,000 Stephen Foster tops a Churchill card that includes four other graded stakes – the Fleur de Lis and the Wise Dan, which are Grade 2 events worth $250,000 each, and the Matt Winn and Regret, which are Grade 3 races worth $150,000 each.

Stephen Foster Stakes

Even with a field of 12, the value of this edition of the Foster as a betting race depends on how you feel about likely favorite Gift Box. There is no question Gift Box is good enough to win. He has improved significantly since relocating to Santa Anita, where he won the Big Cap two starts back over McKinzie, who followed with a smashing win in the Alysheba and a fast-closing but unlucky second in last Saturday’s Met Mile.

That said, Gift Box couldn’t get the job done most recently as the 3-5 favorite in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita, bowing to Vino Rosso. In fairness, Vino Rosso has also improved this year. Still, that loss was reminiscent of Gift Box’s earlier career in New York when he lost a few races he really had no business losing.

Yoshida is the one I want. This race is at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. Yoshida has made only one start under those conditions and that resulted in a victory in the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga last summer. And while it is true Yoshida’s late kick was nicely set up that day by a strong early pace, I suspect he will get some pace to run at here.

Yoshida has made only two other starts on dirt. He finished sixth in the Dubai World Cup in March and fourth in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill. For a moment in upper stretch, I thought Yoshida might actually win the Classic, but he was unable to sustain his run late. My point here is, both of those races were at 1 1/4 miles, a distance I sense is a bit outside of Yoshida’s range, so the cut back in distance Saturday night suits him well.

Wise Dan Stakes

Itsinthepost is the most accomplished member of this field. In fact, he won four Grade 2 races last year alone. But Itsinthepost will be making his first start in nine months here, and at a 1 1/16-mile distance that is shorter than what he is accustomed to. For those reasons, this spot has the feel of a prep for Itsinthepost, prompting me to look elsewhere.

Admission Office isn’t nearly as accomplished as Itsinthepost, or other opponents like Inspector Lynley. He hasn’t even yet won a stakes race. But I do feel Admission Office is the “now” horse in this field and is my play.

Admission Office only began his career last year at 3, and showed potential winning twice and finishing second twice in four starts. But he has really raised his game this year. Admission Office got up to beat a salty allowance field at Keeneland off a six-month layoff in his 2019 bow, and took a big step forward last time out finishing a narrowly beaten second in the Dixie Stakes.

Granted, Admission Office did get a nice run up the rail in the Dixie and fell short of catching Catholic Boy, who was merely prepping for more important races ahead. Still, Catholic Boy is top class, and Admission Office did finish very strongly.

Thor’s Echo Stakes

Santa Anita’s feature for California-breds has all the earmarks of a race in which the early pace could fall apart. Tap the Wire, Smiling Angel, and Fire When Ready all want to be the main speed, but they figure to compromise each other’s chances.

Desert Law and Coil Me Home are the two stalker/closer types who would benefit from a contested pace. Desert Law, in particular, seems primed for a big effort second start back from a 10 1/2-month absence for a barn that is very good in such situations, but I’m siding with Coil Me Home as he figures to be the better price.

Coil Me Home’s third most recently is best forgiven as he was caught in a speed duel. He’s much more effective rating, as he showed with a game second two starts back to Soul Streit, who has a big effort in him on his day, and ahead of fourth-place finisher Aden’s Dream, who aired in his next start with a 95 Beyer Figure.