Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Tropical Park Derby, Tropical Park Oaks, Carousel Stakes

With handicapping completed before the publication of morning lines, it was with chagrin I discovered two plays in full-field turf routes at Gulfstream Park were program favorites. So much for contrarian thinking. Favoritism does not, however, preclude value, and maybe we can dredge some up.

Tropical Park Derby

Ohana Honor looked like a good bet in the Commonwealth Stakes last month – until Churchill Downs had to move the race from its problematic turf course onto dirt and Ohana Honor was scratched.

Instead of racing in Kentucky after shipping from New York, Ohana Honor traveled again to begin training in Florida. In the Tropical Park Derby, connections have found a softer spot than the Commonwealth.

Ohana Honor took forever to come around, requiring seven starts just to win a maiden race, but his development through the second part of this year has come rapidly. Trainer Shug McGaughey told Daily Racing Form’s David Grening that removal of an undescended testicle helped Ohana Honor manifest his ability, and when Ohana Honor returned from a break in August at Colonial Downs, he was ready to truly become a racehorse.

Ohana Honor cleared the maiden ranks in a seven-furlong dirt race, merely a prelude to his breakthrough five weeks later in a turf-route allowance. Just seventh turning for home, Ohana Honor hit high gear at the furlong grounds and won by four, beating rivals that were limited but not hapless.

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He ran even better losing the Gio Ponti Stakes a month later at Aqueduct, where the chart people obscured Ohana Honor’s strong performance affixing to him the short comment, “mild kick.” There was nothing mild about it. Talented Northern Invader strolled on a clear lead in the Gio Ponti, run at a one-mile trip better for Northern Invader than Ohana Honor, who got his last quarter-mile in a robust 23.26 seconds, closing from 3 1/2 lengths behind at the stretch call to get within a length of Northern Invader.

Smokey Mandate would be a worthy rival at his best but peaked a couple months ago, while Anglophile, the other threat, needs nine furlongs or longer for his best.

Tropical Park Oaks

The two Chad Brown-trained fillies here, Implicated and Startup Mentality, would be favored were the Tropical Park Oaks in New York. Perhaps the Gulfstream linemaker is right that Hallandale Beach, Fla., is Todd’s Town, and Cairo Consort will be the chalk.

Those three plus Breath Away appear to be the principals, and Breath Away doesn’t want more than one mile. While Startup Mentality can reverse her loss to Implicated in the Pebbles, both horses are drawn wide.

Not Cairo Consort, who will sit on the fence at the tail of the field and come with a run under Irad Ortiz Jr., likely behind a solid pace. That worked in two stakes last winter at Gulfstream and nearly succeeded in a third. Cairo Consort’s form lines through Papilio have worked out well, as that filly became Grade 1-placed in the Belmont Oaks.

Cairo Consort hasn’t raced since May, which feels more positive than negative. Pletcher over the last five years is 7 for 25 with turf-route stakes horses returning from a layoff of 120 days or longer, and Cairo Consort has been on an ultra-consistent Florida work pattern since early October.

Carousel

The linemaker has it right in the Carousel: The betting public is going for the two Brittany Russell horses, Hybrid Eclipse and Saddle Up Jessie.

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Hybrid Eclipse does not stay 1 1/8 miles and is easily opposed going this far. Saddle Up Jessie is less exposed, but after moving smartly into contention from the three-furlong marker to the three-sixteenths in her last-start win, she went slightly flat the final 100 yards. I doubt she wants to run this far and believe she just hit her peak.

You might think Warrior’s Ransom doesn’t want nine furlongs: I think she might. Her dam-side pedigree is stamina-laden, and as a sharply improving 3-year-old, Warrior’s Ransom still has upside at any distance.

After a pair of peak performances, it looks on paper like she took a step back in the Safely Kept. She did not. Warrior’s Ramsom just fell too far behind a tepid pace before finishing fastest and galloping out far in front of the two who beat her – like a filly who will see out 1 1/8 miles.

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