Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Suwannee River, Diliberto Memorial, Tinsel

We’re not here asking for polite, office-party holiday gifts. It’s either gold nuggets or lumps of coal this third Saturday in December.

Suwannee River

In fairness, Movin’ On Up figures the shortest price among this week’s three opinions, but even she – if not gold nugget-class – ought to offer square odds.

That’s the hope, at least, though with today’s betting patterns, who can really say. If the algorithms seize onto the same things that this human being discerned in her profile – and with Saffie Joseph Jr. helming her preparation – maybe Movin’ On Up takes more betting than I’d prefer. What would constitute lowest acceptable odds? Something in the 7-2 range, for me.

Joseph and owner Ken Ramsey claimed Movin’ On Up, who was making her third start, for $35,000 in December 2023. She has not seen a claiming tag since. No son or daughter of the modest sire Accelerate has earned more money than Movin’ On Up. She’s out of a Cairo Prince mare, which lends some turf, but Accelerate gets a lowly 6 percent grass winners. Connections fiddled around on synthetics the first winter they had the filly. Sire notwithstanding, this is a grass horse.

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And after hinting at stakes-level talent as a 3-year-old, she came back from a winter break as a stakes-level performer this spring. That came on the Gulfstream grass course, which isn’t for every horse, and Movin’ On Up gets back on that course for the first time in five races.

She ran competitively in Kentucky this spring and probably had lost her edge by August at Saratoga, but those Gulfstream runs look sharp – very sharp. Movin’ On Up raced a little too keenly in her comeback effort but overwhelmed overmatched allowance foes. She traveled beautifully meeting tougher competition in the Sand Springs, and, albeit with a good trip, crushed them.

Movin’ On Up gets good trips because she has rateable miler’s speed and the handiness to get into and out of spots. You can watch several of her recent works on video. Even breezing solo on chewed-up dirt tracks, the filly has looked grand. She’s about to make it 3-3 on the Gulfstream grass.

Diliberto Memorial

Kupuna won nicely over solid competition last out when switched from dirt to turf after a high-end claim. Have to respect him, but we’re basically talking about a relatively short price based on a conditioned allowance race.

Perhaps Gigante bounces back to his best returning to a course where he has showed it before. Doubt it. The durable, capable Gigante has made 14 starts without a meaningful break.

I suppose Theismann or Idratherbeblessed could steal a race like this on the lead, but they’re both trying for the same front-end trip. So is Legalize.

It’s a race to take a swing. I’m swinging at Point Proven.

Granted, to contend, Point Proven must prove the same horse he was two seasons ago at Fair Grounds, and since he missed nearly a year of racing, that’s far from assured. Still, I found his two Evangeline grass races this summer superior on replay to paper. In the John Henry, the horse just cruised to the lead, was barely asked after a wide trip, and coasted home an easy winner. Point Proven didn’t work back out of that race: My guess is the owner (first the groom, later the trainer, of Grade 1 winner Bonapaw) saved him for Fair Grounds.

“Steady” does not describe the compromising trouble Point Proven found in the Woodchopper, where he closed strongly for third behind Gigante. I liked him in the Muniz Memorial and hated the ride he got. With the right setup and at the right price Saturday, Point Proven can finally prove the horse I thought he once was becoming.

Tinsel

Woodcourt could merit a bet at something close to his listed 10-1 odds.

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Throw out the two races starting this form cycle. The sloppy-track one-turn mile served to shake away long-layoff rust. And I wouldn’t let this horse within 300 miles of Zia Park, where he has run two atrocious races.

Oaklawn – that’s Woodcourt’s track. Fresh off a claim, he won his Oaklawn debut in January 2024, then ran a solid race in the Rebel Stakes. A year later, he hooked Cigar Mile winner Bishops Bay before clearing his second-level allowance condition last February.

Can’t fear the two favorites. At almost 7 years old, pace-dependent Rattle N Roll makes his Oaklawn debut. Willy D’s lone stakes win, in Indiana this summer, came with aid from a serious inside-speed bias, and he’s 0 for 9 at Oaklawn.

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