Saturday marks the first big coast-to-coast day of early-season 3-year-old racing, and two of the division’s fastest, Fierceness and Nysos, make their first start of 2023. They can’t be played at the expected miniscule odds, but neither can Fierceness in the Holy Bull nor Nysos in the Robert Lewis be easily opposed. One might imagine Nysos as the more vulnerable favorite since he tries two turns for the first time, but if you watched him dispose of the solid older horse Reincarnate in a recent team workout, you’d be hard-pressed to bet against Nysos. Three-year-old stakes in Arkansas and New York hold more appeal. Southwest This race was rescheduled after a blast of arctic air froze a large chunk of the country. The Southwest drew a dozen, and two things come clear: The race is packed with pace, and the morning-line odds miss the mark. Maycocks Bay is unlikely to be favored at 3-1, with the Bob Baffert shipper Wynstock and the local Steve Asmussen-trained charge Carbone likely lower than their listed prices. Maycocks Bay did run a legitimately fast race winning a two-turn dirt contest last out at Fair Grounds. He also was making his first start with Lasix, which won’t be used Saturday, and established a clear early lead, highly unlikely here. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Carbone finished with a swift final furlong stretching out to an Oaklawn mile in allowance company, but the pace scenario looks all wrong for him to carry his speed over 1 1/16 miles. Wynstock wants to be forward, and while he showed heart winning the Los Alamitos Derby, that was far from a standout performance. Rain is possible and Liberal Arts ran well over a sloppy track winning the Street Sense. His three-month layoff isn’t a huge concern, but he got a dream trip beating just four last out. Common Defense is the play, surely at fair odds. Had the Southwest been run as planned he wouldn’t be in it, since his maiden win came Jan. 13. The recent race seems important: Oaklawn horses missed a lot of training owing to the cold, and the others in Saturday’s race have a more distant last start. Common Defense is poised to make a serious forward move off his pair of moderate Beyer Speed Figures. In his debut, he raced close to a solid early pace, came off the bridle and lost all position past the half-mile pole, but suddenly found himself again at the three-eighths and made a strong run at his favored stablemate, Lat Long, who came back with a fine third in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Going a mile on Jan. 13, Common Defense raced in traffic much of the trip, lengthening his long stride impressively once clear, drawing away to an easy win punctuated by a monster gallop-out. There are no monsters in the Southwest. Common Defense can score. Withers Expect Lightline to be all the rage in the Withers. He holds a serious Beyer edge, ran into a nice horse in Carbone last out at Oaklawn, and is ridden by Manny Franco for Brad Cox. He could go off lower than the 8-5 morning line – and I don’t trust him. Lightline got an easy trip facing modest competition in his Indiana debut, and his two starts since call into question the colt’s suitability to two turns. He made a big far-turn move last out at Oaklawn, but his momentum had stalled a furlong from home, as had been the case at Keeneland. Mission Beach is the play. Most notable with this colt is the stark change in running style demonstrated Dec. 22 at Laurel in his first race for trainer Brittany Russell. An early pace casualty in his two previous outings, Mission Beach sat well off a modest tempo and did his best work through the final furlong. The competition was squishy in that Maryland sprint, but this colt brings major stamina influences from all over his pedigree to his route debut. :: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports Sweetest Chant Here’s hoping the odds divide between Life’s an Audible and Milliat is greater than the morning line suggests, as Milliat has a chance to offer value. The filly didn’t break poorly when she won nicely over a dozen in her Dundalk maiden victory, so perhaps she can avoid the slow start that cost her a win in the Wait a While. Milliat really flew home that day and has been given a nice break into her second American run, which she ought to win. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.