Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Smarty Jones, Ginger Brew, Busanda

Lots of earliest-season 3-year-old action this first Saturday of 2026. Tough sledding, these races, between formidable favorites and murk.

Smarty Jones

The late New Orleans turf writer and handicapper Bob Fortus coined the word a couple decades ago: jockeyology.

You know, the practice of assessing who rides horse X for trainer Y and what it all means. The term got deployed with a measure of disdain. There could be a million hidden reasons motivating jockey assignments. Focus on the horse.

I picked up a lot working around Fortus, and yet first look at the Smarty Jones sent me straight to jockeyology school.

:: Live racing action at Oaklawn Park! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now.

We all know Brian Hernandez Jr. rides first call for trainer Kenny McPeek. Hernandez in the Smarty Jones pilots the McPeek-trained Sleepingonfreedom, a stakes newcomer whose two wins came in restricted competition. Joel Rosario rides Universe, a closing second last out in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, that after a Saratoga debut win and placings in two other graded races.

The wheels started turning. Hernandez rode both horses last out. Could be that McPeek has Rosario on Universe because he knows Hernandez could be occupied riding a different 3-year-old (Liberty National, perhaps) in some upcoming stakes, wants Rosario to “get to know” Universe.

Then I actually went closely through the form . . . and concluded Sleepingonfreedom is the right one.

No shade, but the Saratoga maiden Universe won has not worked out to be much race. Universe lost the Champagne by more than seven lengths, and that race also is not seeming especially salty. Same for the Street Sense, and Universe’s KJC second was more of the clunk-along-behind-a-fast-pace variety.

Meanwhile, Sleepingonfreedom, who moves like a route horse, managed a fast-closing second going just five-eighths in a restricted maiden that has come back strong for the class level. He managed to win over six furlongs at Keeneland and then ran a banger going long Nov. 22 at Churchill. The 75 Beyer that performance produced doesn’t capture its strength. Sleepingonfreedom never turned a hair when totally boxed behind horses around the far turn, and I loved the way he stretched out once clear. The Smarty Jones price will be right, and Sleepingonfreedom should get a favorable Saturday setup, none of which has anything to do with who rides the horse – unless it does.

Ginger Brew

Sister Troienne looks tough to beat at a short price, but I have twisted myself into believing Tideoftime can beat her at attractive odds.

Tideoftime did manage to save ground until making her final stretch run, but the trip in her winning debut – quite a strong Laurel maiden race – was far from easy. She had to be used on the backstretch to get inside a flagging rival and into decent position, then wait for a couple furlongs before unleashing her kick. Not simple for a firster in a turf route.

Tideoftime did not run badly in the Chelsey Flower, finishing about a neck out of second, but to my eye the defeat had more to do with the filly not fully applying herself than her finding the competition too stiff. I was pleased to find three Palm Meadows turf workout videos, but was not pleased with the look of the first of them. The second one was better, and the Dec. 21 drill showed what I had hoped to see. We know where Sister Troienne rates, which is why she’s the favorite. Not so with Tideoftime, who could run much better this time.

Busanda

Figure that Shilling and Dazzling Dame take the money in the Busanda, and with Prat moving from Britain to Believable, the latter could garner some support, though between those two I prefer Britain. But this looks like a race where it could pay to dig deeper, and here’s hoping we unearthed something in Two Bits.

The filly’s form roused interest. She was intended for a turf sprint in her debut, got rained off, then did turf sprint second time. From there it was on to Delaware Park for a two-turn dirt race. Wait, what? Two Bits never traveled in that slow-placed stakes, won by perfect-trip Dazzling Dame. On paper, it looked like the cutback to an Aqueduct one-turn mile last out produced at least a mini-breakout. On replay, it looked the same.

Two Bits moved like a different horse in her last start. You know, lightbulbs going on and such. She has worked three times since beating a decent-looking next-out winner, should get a setup Saturday, and will be more than a fair price.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.