Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Santa Anita Handicap, San Felipe, Honey Fox
Can’t complain about this Saturday of racing, with 16 graded stakes carded coast to coast.
Blazing Sevens has a better chance than you think to upset Forte in the Fountain of Youth. Eyeing Clover is the most likely Gotham winner. Plucky, athletic Balnikhov can win the Kilroe Mile. But those are secondary opinions.
Santa Anita Handicap
Nine in this robust renewal of the Big Cap carry between 119 and 124 pounds, which demonstrates the competitve nature of this historic 1 1/4-mile race.
Proxy hated a torrent of kickback at Gulfstream Park last out, finished fastest in the Pegasus, has drawn better this time, and ought to be fine in his first try over 10 furlongs. I expect well-spotted Proxy to race competitively at a fair price.
Draw a line through There Goes Harvard’s last two races, which is fair, and find him winning the Grade 1 Gold Cup over 1 1/4 miles at Santa Anita. He could get back to that at a price, but I didn’t love the lone recent online workout.
Admission: I wasn’t all that familiar with Hopper before digging into this race.
Prediction: Hopper wins the Santa Anita Handicap.
Nothing but really strong performances from Hopper since, oddly, a turf sprint career debut. Off a maiden sprint win, Bob Baffert threw the colt into the Affirmed, where he romped. Then an extended layoff, but Baffert sent Hopper right back into the fire, not only in a Grade 2, but at 1 1/8 miles, Hopper’s first try beyond 1 1/16 miles. Post 1 forced Hopper to the lead in the San Pasqual, he set a solid pace, held well, but succumbed late to Newgrange.
First of all, that seemed like a perfect prep for the Big Cap, which I’d strongly imagine Baffert had in mind all along. Second of all, Hopper quickly galloped out past Newgrange. In fact, this colt has turned in huge gallop-outs after all his dirt starts – like a horse that’s going to love 1 1/4 miles. And finally, in the Feb. 18 team workout with 124-pound starting highweight Defunded, Hopper got the better of him. Hopper projects on a clean outside pressing or stalking trip, and I don’t think he’s going to stop.
San Felipe
Geaux Rocket Ride went off at 6-1 in his debut, immense value in retrospect, and I wonder if, after the San Felipe, we won’t again be wondering how the colt paid as much to win as he did.
First, the others. National Treasure did have a tricky trip in the Sham, which, between Newgate’s subsequent fast win and Reincarnate’s strong showing last weekend in the Rebel, looks like a key race. I’m not convinced he has distance limitations or merely was an early developer.
Maybe Hejazi simply wasn’t ready for his lone route start last summer or wasn’t at his best for whatever reason. More likely – he’s a one-turn horse.
Skinner wasn’t explosive, but he was solid, professional, and fast winning for the first time in four starts while racing for the first time on Lasix.
Geaux Rocket Ride might be better than all of them. He wasn’t merely a speedy debut sprint winner. Yes, the colt had plenty of pace, but he rated and leapt forward when asked for more in upper stretch, galloping out in front of a sharp next-out maiden winner like he was asking for more ground. Speaking of gallop-outs – I wonder if Geaux Rocket Ride has pulled up yet from that Feb. 23 workout. Huuuge gallop-out way down the backstretch. I think this colt will route, and trainer Dick Mandella has run a debut maiden sprint winner in a dirt-route stakes race one time the last five years. That was Soothsay, who won the 2021 Santa Anita Oaks.
Honey Fox
The key here is Chad Brown, who sends two, Faith in Humanity and Speak of the Devil. The latter likely is favored, but all signs point to her performing best on courses with give in the ground (ignore the “firm” designation at Churchill Downs last May). If Brown’s are bet like I expect, the value accrues to White Frost, who has done nothing wrong during her turf career. Returning from a year-plus layoff, she pulled harder than ideal while keen to go last out, yet still walloped a solid field with a strong finish. The subsequent work pattern holds ample appeal, as does this mare’s positional pace.
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