Here’s the thing with morning lines. If you want to tell habitual bad-line critics (raises hand) to shut up, it’s hardly worth mentioning, that’s fine. If unimportant, why bother doing it? Just ditch the line. Because making a line that radically diverges from the betting market is bad business. When a horse listed at 8-1 pays his backer $7, a novice horseplayer will more likely head for the exit than back to the betting window. Ohio Derby For example, take Batten Down in the marquee race of the year at Thistledown, the Ohio Derby. Even within the infinity of universes concurrently unfolding outside this one, Batten Down would never go to post at 8-1. Not even close. Batten Down might be coming out of a maiden race, not the Preakness, but he probably goes off second choice behind Catching Freedom. Even at 5-2, I’ll take a piece of that. Catching Freedom had a six-week respite between the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn and the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, but that duration barely qualifies as a freshening. Otherwise, this workmanlike colt of modest scope and stride has raced steadily since last October. His Beyer Speed Figures have hit a plateau, and I think that pattern fairly represents where the colt stands regarding his 3-year-old development. That’s why he’s in this race rather than gearing up for Saratoga or the Haskell, and regression seems far more likely than anything beyond what Catching Freedom already has produced. Batten Down’s arc points toward a different horizon – sunrise rather than sunset. Know what makes this maiden to graded stakes move more manageable than many such class hikes? The fact Batten Down got beat three times before he won and thus had space to learn and grow while not racing against competition faster and more advanced than he. Did Batten Down benefit from making a clear lead in a short field when he won fourth time out? Sure, but that alone doesn’t account for the strength of his performance. This patient approach is classic Bill Mott. And the decision to pass the Belmont Stakes, a big ask, in favor of this far lesser spot means Batten Down can continue improving, catching up to Catching Freedom’s performance level. A couple of May workout videos, especially his drill with the extremely fast older horse Arthur’s Ride, lend credence to the notion Batten Down will run the best race of his young career. He just won’t be 8-1 when he does it. Wild Applause I’m afraid that David Aragona’s morning line for the Wild Applause has things about right, with Oversubscribed the tepid favorite. Aragona lists her at 3-1, not great value, but sufficient given the paucity of engaging North American stakes options this June Saturday. Gala Brand came under minor consideration: She’s better than her Breeders’ Cup and does appear, from limited work video, to have grown up and filled out during her extended downtime. Vino Rouge held more appeal. She ran very well facing older rivals last out in her first start back from a break. That race’s winner looks like a stakes horse, and Vino Rouge had to steady in the final half-furlong when her gap closed. All that said, Oversubscribed’s ultimate capability lies on a dramatically higher plane than her bare form on the page suggests. Her debut included considerable ground loss as well as heavy traffic, and after rallying up the fence to tie for first, she galloped out a country mile in front. :: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports There’s a gap to her second race but no gap in her work pattern, and Oversubscribed last out once again finished like a serious horse, this after nearly getting dropped going into the far turn. There’s ample pace here to spread this field and allow the filly to get over and save some ground. A clean trip and Oversubscribed breaks out. Goldwood All That Magic holds all the value in this filly and mare turf sprint at Monmouth. The thing to do with the The Very One, where she barely ran a step, is disregard the results. It was an upside-down kind of race, and All That Magic, returning from a layoff, lost a couple lengths with a bad start and never got out of second gear. Few horses transition over the course of a couple races from a need-the-lead speed horse to capable closer, but this mare did last year. Expect a return to her better 2023 form as that flashy Monmouth turf record goes to 4 for 4. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.