Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Mucho Macho Man, Smarty Jones, Ginger Brew

Fitting that on the first Saturday of 2025, racecourses across the nation showcase freshly turned 3-year-olds whose connections, whether they cop to it or not, have the first Saturday in May bopping somewhere in their brains.

We’re swerving around New York and California and bopping down to Florida and Arkansas.

Mucho Macho Man

This one-turn mile revolves around Guns Loaded, who brings a field-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure from a Churchill maiden that looks legit. Runner-up Camp Hale, 13-10 favorite, had finished second debuting at Keeneland for a barn that never pushes firsters. Third-place Ain’t No Disco returned to win a Gulfstream maiden with a 77 Beyer. A demanding trip compromised Guns Loaded’s Saratoga debut. Video of two Florida workouts, solo and in blinkers, offers encouraging signs.

Still, taking something like 3-2 feels imprudent. Guns Loaded hasn’t raced beyond six furlongs, and more importantly draws the rail inside a host of other pace players. If he outruns them, he’ll be going too fast. If he doesn’t, Guns Loaded faces a very challenging trip.

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Second choice looks like Septarian, who I do prefer over Guns Loaded. Seeing the stride on this fellow, noting his body type, it’s surprising he could win a 4 1/2-furlong Charles Town maiden. His Laurel stakes score also proved eye-opening, and in both sprints Septarian galloped out like a horse looking for more distance. But Chad Brown, through a limited sample, hasn’t excelled with dirt horses making their first start following a trainer change. There’s no work video on this colt, and he’s not turning up an overlay.

I wanted to lump Cool Intentions with Rolando and view both as limited locals, but Cool Intentions is much better than Rolando, has done nothing wrong, and can improve again after doing so his last two outings. Cool Intentions debuted at a six-furlong distance shorter than he wants, finishing with good energy, and Rolando beat him there with a much better Gulfstream trip. Racing inside and behind, and stretched second out to a one-turn mile, Cool Intentions stalked, pounced, and dominated. Cut back to seven furlongs last time, he buried Rolando through the final furlong after relaxing sweetly and showing push-button acceleration. Cool Intentions comes from the first crop of Authentic, whose best horses nearly all have come forward at longer distances. Two turns might prove even better, but an added furlong Saturday only helps a colt who’ll get the right trip at the right price.

Smarty Jones

Hot Property didn’t get bet and pulled the easiest of trips in a short field winning his debut over a route of ground in New Orleans. He might be a good colt – but might is as far as I’d go, and Hot Property, Prat for Cox with a sporty Beyer, will be bet like he’s already proven his chops.

I’d want even less to do with Kale’s Angel, the radically outlying 93 Beyer not only coming at a sprint, but over just 5 1/2 furlongs. No good things will come of his rail draw. Let’s see if Optical can take a step forward and post an upset.

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Optical’s previous two-turn dirt race wound up a one-turn run for the gelding, pulled up on the clubhouse bend in the Breeders’ Futurity. We’ll pretend that never happened. Optical punctuated his blowout one-turn mile maiden win with a monster gallop-out, and the two just behind him at Churchill in November both are better than par for that class level. Optical, even after seven starts, remains a work in progress, one who I can imagine stepping forward at two turns. Video of his Dec. 28 Fair Grounds team breeze lends further evidence that Optical will outrun his Smarty Jones odds.

Ginger Brew

Nitrogen figures heavily favored for trainer Mark Casse after a surging third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I’ll side with the Casse filly Disco Star, exiting a New York-bred maiden turf sprint.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf completely fell apart after a breakneck pace. Nitrogen ran well but greatly benefited from race flow.

Casse’s “B team,” Disco Star, ran into a good New York-bred winner finishing second in her debut, and after getting knocked sideways at the start last out, falling far behind, she turned in a long (11.61-second penultimate furlong) and strong run to win easily. Yes, she’s bred like a sprinter, and, okay, the Florida work pattern seems confusing, but the video from two of those breezes looked quite good, and Disco Star definitely flies under the radar Saturday.

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