Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Madison, Santa Anita Derby, Shakertown

First the Blue Grass lost Derby favorite Paladin, and then it lost Rebel winner Class President. The race has lost luster.

Iron Honor looks like he’ll win the Wood as the favorite.

We’ll try to find a winner of the day’s third Derby prep and unearth something in two of Keeneland’s other stakes.

Madison

I can’t knock Grand Job, the deserving favorite off her dirt form generally and her last-out score in the Inside Information particularly. Question: If the Beyer from the Inside Information had come back, say, 95 rather than 100, would you feel the same way about Grand Job? Because that’s an outlier figure for her, and Grand Job does appear to have a special affinity for Gulfstream. Her loss there last year in the Royal Delta came about because Grand Job can’t show her best at two turns.

The mare seems headstrong and aggressive. Grand Job’s one poor race since leaving Ireland, the dud last November at Churchill, came after she got hooked on the lead and pinned along the rail. She feels like a horse who much prefers a clean outside run – a trip it’ll be hard to find here. She’s drawn inside main speed rival R Disaster, and I doubt there will be an opportunity for a “take back a little and get outside” maneuver.

Say Grand Job goes hard. That sets up a major pace war with R Disaster, whose trainer says she turned a corner last fall in the Gallant Bloom. I can see it. She definitely lost the Dream Supreme on the trip. But this race poses a much sterner challenge than her Hurricane Bertie last out. I doubt R Disaster survives a pace battle.

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I haven’t loved the look of Ragtime’s works, though there are plenty of them, and wonder if she won’t hit her best again at Saratoga. I don’t buy that the last-start 104 Beyer represents Eclatant’s baseline performance level.

I’m going with Clicquot, who has done little wrong in five starts since her debut defeat.

Was the Cotillion a soft Grade 1? Probably, but Clicquot won it despite pulling too hard in her first start after a 2 1/2-month break. She didn’t embarrass herself after racing against at least a mild bias in the Breeders’ Cup.

To me, this filly’s got a ton of 4-year-old upside, and I don’t think she’s coming back from a winter break in a seven-furlong race just to ready her for routes. The trainer thinks this might be a sprinter-miler; I agree. Clicquot had plenty of speed to clear the maiden ranks going one turn last spring at Keeneland, and workout video suggests a horse sitting on an upset.

Santa Anita Derby

Poor Intrepido. I can’t figure out why he doesn’t get more respect. Is he winning the Kentucky Derby? Almost certainly not. I see him as easily the most likely winner of the Santa Anita Derby, and the value should be there.

Let’s see: The rider dropped the crop when he beat the good colt Plutarch in a maiden race. He had all kinds of trouble and still beat the good colt Desert Gate in the American Pharoah. He muffed the break and raced against the grain of the track in the Breeders’ Cup. He wound up dueling on the lead – not how he wants to run – and paid the price when Plutarch, closing sharply, ran him down in the Lewis.

Connections skipped the San Felipe because Intrepido needed more time – in other words, they did right by their horse. He’s not a flashy worker by any means, but the works have been solid. He’s got a good draw for the right trip and looks like a fair-priced winner.

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Shakertown

Joe Shiesty at anything close to his 8-1 morning line? Yes, please.

People don’t realize how good this horse is. I go back to his William Walker two Mays ago at Churchill. I covered that race and remember thinking after a razor-sharp win, “Who in the world is this horse?” Some ups and downs, two bad trips last fall, and then a win over high-class sprinter Howard Wolowitz in December and an absolute thumping last month in the Big Daddy. Those came on Turfway Tapeta; Keeneland turf suits the gelding equally well.

After a spell of breaking flat-footed, his gate habits have gotten good again. He broke like a rocket from an outside post last time, and if he does the same thing Saturday, Joe can steal the show.

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