Perhaps you’ve noticed that value has become a scarce resource betting on racehorses. The “dumb money” has left the pools, replaced in great part by computer algorithms. It also feels like heavy favorites are heavier than ever. Let’s try to beat a couple of them. Los Alamitos Futurity Litmus Test takes all the action in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He probably merits odds-on favoritism – probably. Litmus Test has made more starts than any of his five rivals and obviously has ascended to a higher level. He had a demanding inside trip racing on the lead in the Breeders’ Futurity, where Ted Noffey beat him five lengths, and comes out of a solid fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he earned a flashy 95 Beyer Speed Figure. The figure surpasses the visual impression his race left on me. It’s generally good policy to tread cautiously with horses racing in December after a Breeders’ Cup start. And here’s a fun fact related to the BC Juvenile: Bob Baffert, Litmus Tests’s trainer, has won the Los Al Futurity eight times since the race moved from Hollywood Park in 2014. None among that octet started in the Breeders’ Cup. :: Access the most trusted data and information in horse racing! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. Acknowledgemeplz has a flashy 93 Beyer on his résumé, and his debut second came behind one of Baffert’s more advanced 2-year-olds, Desert Gate. I’m often surprised in racing. I’ll be surprised if this speedy ridgling winds up a route horse. He’s going to the lead from the rail, and Baffert has that covered with Provenance, who exits a front-running sprint victory. The pick here has no victories of any kind. Blacksmith has started twice and lost twice. Favored at even money in his debut, Blacksmith closed hard on Acknowledgemeplz but fell three-quarters of a length short. Not sure I’ve ever seen a horse post a five-furlong workout three days before a race. Blacksmith did before checking in fifth as the 2-5 favorite on Nov. 22. Why does Baffert run a maiden, one coming off a superficially poor performance, in a Grade 2 stakes? Because Blacksmith, who has only sprinted, wants to route. Just look at his stride, his stretch runs, his gallop-outs. The colt cries out for distance. Saturday, he gets what he wants, and Blacksmith should get the right trip. His stablemate merits odds-on favoritism. Blacksmith merits a bet. Go for Wand Here’s a second strong favorite: Weigh the Risks. She’s won two in a row and 4 of 5 since switching from turf to dirt, and that 101 Beyer at Saratoga bursts off the page. I’m skeptical. Weigh the Risks lost the Heavenly Prize in February by six lengths as the 2-5 favorite. Her last start, the Pumpkin Pie, just might be who she is right now. While hardly a devotee of winter New York racing, I clearly remember Scalable’s victory last January in the Interborough after being cut back from routes. She looked like an unusually sharp winner for a mid-winter Aqueduct race. Then Scalable disappeared, and when she showed up again in September, she had forgotten how to run the first part of races. In both starts this form cycle, Scalable broke from the gate and fell out the back door. But even when she finished a distant sixth in the Gallant Bloom, Scalable kicked home strongly. She kept up somewhat better – though not well at all – in the Pumpkin Pie, and this time her run got Scalable within 1 3/4 lengths of Weigh the Risks. Scalable’s getting back to her best trip, a one-turn mile, getting back to her best form, and she can get up in time Saturday. :: Get Gulfstream Park Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the Clocker Team. Available every race day.  Tropical Park Derby Layabout has become a different horse since his hapless dirt-racing days. His Bear’s Den was better than it looks, and in the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs he closed relentlessly from much farther back than he needs to be. One of two things happened from the furlong grounds to the wire in Layabout’s last start. Either he tired late after losing ground on both turns and making a premature move, or Layabout lost focus after easily cruising to a clear lead. To that end, the trainer on Dec. 7 worked Layabout in company with Beach Gold, putting Layabout in front and letting Beach Gold, a legitimate stakes horse, range up and apply pressure. Layabout easily outworked his older mate, and on Saturday he can outrun these 3-year-olds. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.