Weekend GamePlan: Picks for Kitten's Joy, Tampa Bay Stakes
?q=100)
Fourth-place Captain Cook ran best among the newly turned 4-year-olds in the Pegasus last weekend. The others, Disco Time and Tappan Street, finished, respectively, eighth and 12th. Tappan Street’s the last horse to beat Sovereignty, and some are treating the Pegasus like a referendum on the 3-year-old class of 2025.
Did you see Tappan Street’s comeback race? Flat as a pancake. Disco Time, the Pegasus favorite, raced in the St. Louis Derby and the Dwyer, not the Travers and the Pacific Classic. All due respect to the laudable Pegasus elders, but Journalism and Baeza, who had his first work of the winter Jan. 28, pose the strongest threats to Sovereignty, who may not be threatened by anyone.
On to this week’s races.
Kitten’s Joy
A couple of decades ago, a turf-writing and form-analyzing greenhorn, I often made the mistake of overvaluing the visual impression of a horse. That has changed. A too-slow horse renders an eye-catching performance meaningless.
Nonetheless, visual impression remains a key component of how I view horses, and while Redland Rebels might have been “too slow” for the Kitten’s Joy when he very much caught the eye in his most recent start, that came as an August 2-year-old.
As for the visual, we must acknowledge that Aug. 6 Gulfstream maiden turf mile included zero worthy opponents – and I don’t care.
The first thing that caught the eye: Redland Rebels, a powerful-looking colt for his age, traveled very strongly from the start, leading, definitely into the bridle, but also poised and responsive, ears pricked.
Redland Rebels didn’t turn a hair when a rival came nearly abreast at the five-sixteenths pole, and eased back onto a clear lead as his rider very gently urged Redland Rebels forward. Already opening up as he cut the corner into the homestretch, Redland Rebels was asked for his real run after straightening up and let loose with an excellent turn of foot. Five strides and he had put the race to sleep.
Rateable speed plus a true turn of foot are ideal attributes for a turf miler. The work pattern is a little light, and there’s no work video, but expect the Biancone barn to have this colt primed. Redland Rebels faces horses far better than those he beat in August, but as good as he looked then, he might look even better now.
Tampa Bay
Speaking of “not fast enough,” Tom’s Magic’s 85 Beyer Speed Figure from his close second in the Hollywood Derby on Nov. 29 puts him below the top contenders in the Tampa Bay Stakes. I doubt the number truly represents the colt’s performance level. Test Score, third just behind Tom’s Magic (perhaps best in the race), came back to win the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf on Jan. 24 with a 97 Beyer. Salamis, the Hollywood Derby winner, ran a 91 on Sept. 28.
Tom’s Magic also was best in a race he didn’t win, the $1 million King’s Plate. He came back to win the rich Breeders’ Stakes, a restricted race like the King’s Plate, going 1 1/2 miles, but I’m not sure Tom’s Magic is at his best even going 1 1/8 miles, as he did in the Hollywood Derby. His run flattened out very late in that start, though to be fair, Tom’s Magic hadn’t run in two months and was back out on the road, shipping from New Orleans to California.
I saw this horse in person as a spring 3-year-old: pretty tall and very much unformed, the kind of raw-materials 3-year-old who will make a leap at 4. Seven-year-old Win for the Money, the favorite, has hit his ceiling, as has possible second choice Quatrocentro, a 5-year-old who raced six times between August and December. Tom’s Magic will go forward and already may be faster than he looks.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.