On the Chinese lunar calendar, Aug. 7 marked autumn’s first day. Yet on the Gregorian calendar we’re a week away from a race known as the Mid-Summer Derby. That’s the Travers, and while 3-year-olds on stage this weekend are of the Canadian-foaled variety, both sophomore sets are tasked with racing 1 1/4 miles – 2.01 kilometers for those living under the cycles of the Chinese lunar year. Can the favorite make it that far? King’s Plate One might be surprised to learn trainer Mark Casse only has won the King’s Plate three times. What else has Casse done at Woodbine? Well, during the 2024 race meeting, Casse shows 63 stakes starters, but the barn has had two or three entrants in so many races that “starters” doesn’t tell the tale: From the 35 Woodbine stakes Casse has entered he has 21 wins, a 60 percent strike rate. Casse sends out the King’s Plate morning-line favorite, My Boy Prince, who just won the Plate Trial by 1 1/4 lengths, showing that against the right competition he can stay 1 1/8 miles. Yet being capable of accomplishing something and excelling at it are of course different things, and the farther My Boy Prince runs, the more the balance tips toward “capable” and away from “excelling.” :: 2024 King's Plate: Get odds, comments, analysis, and news for the 165th running of the King's Plate at Woodbine Essex Serpent, Casse’s “B” team, has only a trio of starts, but I find his three-race pattern, bubbling with improvement, appealing enough to make him the King’s Plate pick. Essex Serpent did have an easy trip but caught the eye winning his short-sprint debut in April, a race in which he barely drew a deep breath. The colt wasn’t aggressively ridden while stuck in traffic much of the Queenston Stakes – no match for My Boy Prince but still a second-start improver who finished with interest. Race 3 came just 20 days later, and Essex Serpent clearly appreciated the stretch to two turns facing open 3-year-olds in the Marine, coasting along on a solid pace yet finishing with ample energy, comfortably holding clear Kentucky shipper Cameo Performance, who returned to win a $250,000 Ellis Park stakes. If Essex Serpent makes the front without having to work, fine, and if another horse is sent to lead, he’ll have no issue rating. He’s coming to this freshened and with a strong work pattern – possibly Casse’s fourth winner of Canada’s biggest race. Lake Placid I confess to never having even seen the name Penny’s Picnic, the sire of French import Les Reys. And there’s a good chance that even if you kind of follow European racing, you’ve never seen a contest at Le Buscat or Toulouse, the racecourses where Les Reys made her first five starts. But during May and June, Les Reys not only graduated to racing under far brighter lights at Longchamp, she turned into a different filly – one capable of winning the Lake Placid in her North American debut. We can safely say that a pair of heavy-ground races interrupted whatever subtle development was taking place with Les Reys, though she can handle a course with some cut to it, which could come in handy Saturday. In the pair of Longchamp wins, Les Reys was ridden with hold-up tactics, spun wide from the rear of the field to mow down the competition through the final quarter-mile. Her turn of foot appears to be good, her ability to sustain a run even better. She beat no rivals of real consequence, that’s true, but she’s also 10-1 on the morning line, and on Aug. 2 gave Grade 1-winning 4-year-old male turf horse Far Bridge all he wanted – and perhaps more – in a team grass work. Joel Rosario seems like a perfect fit. Sheer Drama Lightly raced 6-year-old Beth’s Dream is the “fastest” horse in the Sheer Drama Handicap, but to date, the mare never has been able to string together more than three top performances. Well, here we are in the fourth race of her form cycle. Beth’s Dream got an easy trip winning her last race, carries top weight of 125 pounds, and can be opposed with Charlie’s Wish. Charlie’s Wish, given the race flow, ran just as well as Beth’s Dream finishing second to her June 23. She’s a 4-year-old with greater upside than Beth’s Dream or 8-year-old Bluefield, and with any sort of pace help and a touch of luck, she wins this as the third choice. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.