Plenty of supercharged starter-allowance purses this Saturday, with Churchill hosting the Claiming Crown, but limited stakes options. Jockey Club Oaks Handicappers can get caught in the trap of using speed figures to define a horse rather than letting the figures establish a range of possibility. Take a late-season 3-year-old with limited starts and the figures, rather than setting a ceiling on performance, might suggest a horse who can climb much higher. This applies – hopefully – to the filly Scythian, whose Beyer Speed Figures look much too light for her to contend in the Jockey Club Oaks. Likely favorite Laurelin has a 94 and a 92 from her last two outings. Likely second choice Fionn has gotten up to a 91. Scythian? Her top sits at 78. But that 78 came when she won the Miss Grillo Stakes on Oct. 6 of her 2-year-old campaign, and guess what – a 78 Beyer for an early autumn 2-year-old grass route horse rates as high level. What were Laurelin and Fionn doing at that point? Laurelin, who debuted in October, went 72-76, the second number from her win in the Tepin Stakes. Fionn’s pair of 2-year-old Beyers were 53 and 69, and she only got up to Scythian’s 78 in March of her 3-year-old season. :: Access the most trusted data and information in horse racing! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. I have no idea what Sythcian was doing in March other than chilling. She posted one workout following the 2024 Breeders’ Cup, in late December, then went quiet on the published-breeze front until July. Scythian’s long-layoff comeback, on Aug. 30, came on dirt. She’s no dirt horse, and the 74 Beyer she earned in her Oct. 9 turf race means next to nothing since Scythian got stopped cold trying to get through on the rail, losing all chance. Take it further. Going into the first turn of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, a horse crossed in front of Scythian, who almost clipped heels and, reacting to the trouble, careened to the far outside while losing stride. You can throw that race out, too, and suddenly the Miss Grillo 78 begins to reveal a filly who (check out her last start gallop-out) should suit this extended trip, who will go off at a long price, and who has massive speed-figure upside. Chilukki Ragtime held ample appeal at just less than 9-2 as an unknown quantity going into the Grade 1 Test in August. She holds little as a known quantity and 8-5 morning-line favorite going into the Chilukki. This marks her sixth start of the season and, frankly, feels a little like an afterthought following the Raven Run, which seemed like her major autumn goal. Blinkers go back on, and the stretch to a one-turn mile occasion more skepticism than optimism. Shred the Gnar possesses ability equal to Ragtime’s, and while two turns could wind up her best game, she can handle a one-turn mile. Still, Shred the Gnar has a challenging inside draw and hasn’t raced since early May. She was reported lame when scratched from the Acorn in early June, and after posting a workout in late August, didn’t breeze again for nearly a month. I think she’ll need the race. One Magic Philly would have all the value as third choice, and she can fall into a perfect pressing or stalking trip from her outside draw. One Magic Philly was based in California until this fall, and her company lines include a murderer’s row of female sprinter/milers: Kopion, Hope Road, Seismic Beauty, Splendora, Sweet Azteca. :: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports Even at Keeneland, in her first start for trainer Brendan Walsh, One Magic Philly beat a nice horse, Hillerito, a six-time winner from eight starts who won the Dream Supreme last weekend at Churchill. Already good, One Magic Philly still can get better, and among the Chilukki’s Big 3, she looks best. Kennedy Road Through the first six starts of his 7-year-old campaign Lucky Score looked like an aging gelding who had lost a step or two. He looked much different in start No. 7. What Lucky Score looked like coming back Oct. 18 from a two-month freshening, shortening up and returning to Tapeta from turf, was a horse who can capitalize on a zingy, contested pace Saturday and go two slots better than his third-place Kennedy Road finish in 2022. The presence of Nobals should push him up to a playable price. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.