The action starts early from Meydan, moves to Gulfstream, on to Oaklawn – a tremendous Saturday of racing. Derma Sotogake is the sleeper in the Dubai World Cup. Horses closer to home draw greater attention. Florida Derby Suppose you were presented a luxury car sticker-priced at $75,000, actually selling for $100,000. Test drives like a dream. You might never have felt a car this excellent. One caveat: If you hit a bump in the road, the car immediately loses half its power. You buying? Thus, Fierceness. As his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has said, Fierceness never has not worked like a dream. Twice in four races, he has run to those works – both times, it might be worth noting, as a 2-year-old. Fierceness was 1-5 in the Holy Bull Stakes, where he finished third after encountering obstacles rather than running a race simulating a workout. His odds Saturday won’t properly reflect his vulnerabilities. Fierceness might win by five lengths, break the clock, go to Churchill Downs the Derby favorite. I advocate opposition. :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets. Conquest Warrior comes forth a tempting alternative, likely second choice. His debut came on a heavily inside-speed biased track, and he was not inside speed. Second time out, considering his trip, he had no business winning but did, blipping brightly onto the Derby radar. Conquest Warrior’s follow-up allowance victory left some tepid. I put more stock in how he won – easily, dominantly – than the flat Beyer Speed Figure. The colt could leap forward, but Conquest Warrior also will be overbet. I came into this exercise ready to pitch Hades yet come out viewing him as the value and the play. This is a real racehorse. He ate dirt in his debut, which at 5 1/2 furlongs was much too short. He failed to change leads and still won more comfortably than the bare margin. Second time out, he went to the lead because of post 1, had a rival edge ahead of him going into the turn, never turned a hair, regained the lead, and won easily, final furlong a roaring 12.14 seconds. Florida-bred allowance horses are one thing, but Hades ran the same race in the Holy Bull! Fierceness got a neck on him going to the far turn, Hades said, “Not today,” and in the final 50 yards he was going better than Domestic Product, galloping out ears up, ready for more. Hades doesn’t need the lead, nor has he been trained to get it. Far from a beautiful mover, Hades works kindly in hand, absolutely blasts home the final three-sixteenths and out past the wire. The faster he goes, the better he looks. He’s been training fabulously. This ride isn’t even sitting in the showroom. They got it stashed in the parking lot, price marked down. I’m buying. Fantasy The Arkansas Derby may be the race to watch, but the Fantasy is the race to bet at Oaklawn. The Fantasy favorites are filled with holes, and while this opinion holds potential to unleash a vicious bite, I don’t expect a West Omaha bounce-back. Ba Dee Yah looks like sixth choice at best; I’ll have some. Three-year-old stakes this time of year as much as anything are about who’s subtly improving. Ba Dee Yah already has improved and has another level to hit. Campaigned on turf as a 2-year-old, Ba Dee Yah appears to be a dirt horse. Her maiden win was solid, a long, sustained rally into a slow pace. Ba Dee Yah ironed out her lead changes before leveling off encouragingly. Next out, she was third in an allowance race won by Tarifa, a leading Oaks contender after her Fair Grounds Oaks victory. Ba Dee Yah was just all right, but the filly hadn’t raced in two months, had a light work tab, with no breezes in 18 days. I think that race strictly was a means to an end. Yes, she beat just four in the off-turf Lacombe, but she did that easily and well, and in the Fantasy, I expect even better. Orchid The 5-year-old French import La Mehana won’t turn into a star this year, but she’s eminently capable of winning the Orchid in her North American debut. Draw a line through the soft and heavy ground starts in France. La Mehana will prefer the Gulfstream course to that sort of going. The mare made good progress at age 3 and took another step forward last year. She very much stays 1 1/2 miles and is handy enough to establish a decent position from post 1. Her turn of foot isn’t electric, but she does have one, and this Orchid is ripe for a fresh face. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.