Road to the Derby Kickoff Day next Saturday at Fair Grounds, Pegasus World Cup Day on Jan. 28, but slim pickings this second Saturday of 2023. A short American stakes schedule includes several short fields, but maybe there’s just enough meat on the bone to make a meal. Fifth Season Pick a horse, any horse – besides Ginobili. The track morning line has the 7-year-old pegged at 7-5, which feels about right, and, for me, he’s a great play-against. Ginobili risks getting caught up on a very strong pace in this two-turn mile, and his two-start Oaklawn campaign during 2020 left much to be desired. Most of all, Ginobili is a massive course specialist: At Del Mar, he has a 3-2-0 record from six starts and with three Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or higher; at all other tracks he’s 10-0-1-1 with a top Beyer of 91. Second choice on the morning line at 4-1 sits the amazing Rated R Superstar, who one year ago won this very race at 26-1 to kick off his 9-year-old campaign, which ended Dec. 17 with a solid stakes win going a two-turn mile at Remington. Rated R Superstar is getting far more pace at which to run Saturday than he did last month, but do you know when this horse with 65 starts last paired up wins? In May and July of 2016. Even with a setup, I can’t see him approaching the form he showed in December. Soy Tapatio could wind up a shorter price than Rated R Superstar, and I did consider him. Trainer Robertino Diodoro won the last Oaklawn race in this division with Bal Harbour, and Soy Tapatio, purchased for a series of Canadian races last year, fits this spot. The cutback to one mile probably isn’t ideal, and he’s a heavy, lumbering type who last out at Sunland got a clean outside trip and in the Fifth Season will be put in a more difficult spot pace-stalking from the fence. I’m going back to King Fury, who ran flat when I touted and bet him Dec. 17 in the Tinsel, though his performance on video and through the lens of fractional times was not as bad as I first thought. King Fury raced in blinkers once, running below form with them in the 2020 Kentucky Jockey Club; they go back on in the Fifth Season, and one has to guess the horse wore them when he posted a notably quick half-mile work Jan. 7. King Fury recently has floundered racing mid-pack behind tepid paces, but two of his best showings, in the Lexington and Ohio Derby, came with a sustained run from the back of the field – the right trip for this race. Guessing the equipment change and cutback in distance wake this horse up at a price. Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf Arrogate has not been much of a turf sire so far – his progeny trying turf have been fairly limited – but he absolutely is a route sire, and his daughter Avow tries two turns for the first time in this Florida-bred stakes. She’s real beast of a horse, both big and long with the obvious look of a two-turn runner. Her chance of successfully moving to turf gets a boost from her dam, a turf-stakes horse for her trainer, Todd Pletcher. :: Get ready for Gulfstream Park racing with DRF Past Performances, Picks, and Clocker Reports.  Despite starting in one-turn races, Avow evinced plenty of ability in her three-start career. Facing open company for the first time Dec. 14, she was bottled up along the rail behind horses fading off a taxing pace, waiting for room to run while the longshot closing winner looped the field. Avow quickly galloped out in front, and workout video of her Jan. 7 company drill with turf-stakes horse Beside Herself looked fairly encouraging. Pasco Just six entrants in this 3-year-old sprint, which Loco Abarrio can win at a square number. This Florida-bred gelding made his first two starts on Tapeta, claimed for $35,000 out of the second, and the last-start switch to dirt revealed a different, faster horse. After setting a decent pace, Loco Abarrio accelerated like a turf horse in upper stretch to quickly put that field – albeit a suspect one – to bed. His inside draw and a new racing surface pose challenges, but as the third choice or so, he’s worth a wager. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.