Weekend GamePlan for May 28, 2022: Picks for Soaring Softly, Melair, Oak Brook
The big day for North American stakes action this weekend is Monday, and the Saturday calendar, which includes several Cal-bred stakes, is shallow. But here we go, nonetheless.
Soaring Softly
This seven-furlong turf contest for 3-year-old fillies is deep, but the local forecast is cause for some concern. It looks as of Thursday like there won’t be enough rain to move the Soaring Softy to dirt, but DRF’s David Grening reported likely favorite Derrynane will be scratched if trainer Christophe Clement deems the course too soft.
That’s too bad, because trying to beat Derrynane on a wetter course was part of the appeal this race held. Derrynane’s lone subpar performance came the one time she raced on a course with give in the ground, last summer at Saratoga, and it very much looks like she’s a filly who wants good going at worst. Rain-softened turf accentuates the other concern for the filly, who will be going 1 1/2 furlongs farther than she’s raced, and even as the highest-rated filly in the race, Derrynane, if she takes her spot in the gate, might not run to her price.
Haughty, a fine third last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, surely takes action making her 3-year-old debut for very popular connections. She wants to run farther than this in any case and a lack of real pace in the Soaring Softy will make it doubly difficult for Haughty to get up in time.
Chardy Party’s debut win turf-sprinting at Keeneland was eye-catching to say the least, and she finished faster (granted, it was 12 days later) than Derrynane or anyone else in the Limestone Stakes, run at the same 5 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland turf as Chardy Party’s debut. But trainer Wesley Ward has a negative stat working here: Over the last five years, Ward-trained debut winners, 3 years old or older, who turf-sprinted in their second career start went 9-0-2-1. Five of those horses were 2-1 or lower, eight of them 6-1 or lower.
Ouraika appears to be the best value. You can toss two of her four North American starts since the filly wants no part of two-turn racing. She pulled too hard last out at Keeneland and was wide with no cover on the far turn, actually making a nice little run at her very talented stablemate Spendarella to the quarter pole before flattening out.
When second against males last Dec. 2 going six furlongs at Aqueduct, Ouraika once again raced wide on the turn with no cover while being moved prematurely to the lead.
She wove confidently between rivals and might have waited on horses in her Santa Anita stakes win, has a touch of positional pace that ought to come in handy, and was comfortable going wire to wire over good-to-soft ground in her French win. That was no great field she beat, but the runner-up did come back with a win and a second-place finish while facing stronger competition.
:: Win big at Santa Anita: Get DRF Past Performances, Picks, Clocker Reports and Betting Strategies.
Melair
I was very high on Big Switch in the Jan. 8 Santa Ynez Stakes, but something went amiss with the filly that day, as she didn’t come close to hitting her true form. Her subsequent turf try is an easy toss, and Big Switch has come back from a freshening with a very encouraging work pattern. Even when she was winning sprint races – the one at Del Mar was especially good – Big Switch had the look of a route horse, and she gets to make her two-turn debut against a highly suspect group of California-breds. I supposed she’ll be the favorite, but between the layoff and two subpar running lines, her win price might turn out to be fair.
Oak Brook
Saturday in Chicagoland is forecast to be sunny, but several days before Saturday are not, and the Hawthorne grass course, little used this spring, should at best be rated good. That is good news for Cat Attack, who has shown a true affinity for courses with give in the ground, including Hawthorne’s.
I don’t know what went amiss with Cat Attack in her Hawthorne turf stakes flop last fall, but her most recent race, a sloppy-track dirt sprint, was purely a prep for this. She has post 9 but adds blinkers and looks like the controlling speed – and most likely winner – of this Illinois-bred stakes race.