I liked Chief Wallabee to win the Fountain of Youth last month. Bet like he would win, he did not, a victim of trip and a lack of experience in just his second start. If Chief Wallabee went at 5-2 last out following a maiden win, how short will he be in the Florida Derby? Why does he always run with his head cocked to the right? Why does Irad Ortiz Jr. wind up on Renegade in Arkansas rather than Commandment in the Florida Derby? Why did I start feeling a week ago like Nearly wasn’t nearly as good as I thought he was two weeks ago? See? Too many questions in the Florida Derby, and Renegade probably just wins the Arkansas Derby at a short number. Can’t go there, either. Let’s turn to the undercards. Orchid At the risk of pulling a shoulder muscle from self-back patting, I had Speed Shopper in this space at 7-1 in the Clement and Just Basking at 13-1 in the The Very One. Perhaps I have a handle on the female long-distance turf division at Gulfstream. :: Play Gulfstream Park with confidence! DRF Past Performances, Picks, and Clocker Reports are available now.  For the Orchid, I’m siding with – none of the above. Both horses got good trips last out and neither has the established baseline to repeat the peak. I’m with Dona Clota, who didn’t have a good trip when third behind Just Basking in the 1 3/8-mile The Very One. Dona Clota rated as the best turf horse in Chile – male or female – during 2024. And note that the three races she lost before ending her Chilean career with three strong victories came on turf with give in the ground. Trainer Ignacio Correas, who hopefully is loving the semi-retired life in Argentina, expressed great enthusiasm about Dona Clota joining his stable late in 2024. He was not at all enthusiastic about running her just after she arrived from South America in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf. That was not his call. South Americans, Correas knows as well as anyone, need a half-year of acclimation to the Northern Hemisphere. Neither was Dona Clota anywhere near her best returning to action for a new trainer last August at Saratoga, but finally, 14 months after coming to North America, Dona Clota looked like her South American self in the The Very One. Fresh, she raced too keenly early in the race, and after finally settling, Dona Clota found herself locked behind and between rivals – a position from which her rider could not extricate himself until Just Basking hit high gear in her wide, sweeping move from the rear of the field. By the time Dona Clota stoked up, the winner was gone, and after just missing the pace, Dona Clota galloped out with verve, inching clear of Just Basking, who also went out strongly. The extra furlong here could help and cleaner passage will help. This time, it’s Dona Clota’s turn. Sand Springs Why not two female turf stakes winners on the Gulfstream card? I think Sweet Rebecca will run well but am going one layer deeper with Yes It Tiz. Here’s the theory: Yes It Tiz started her career with three turf routes (watch her debut – it’s way better than the figure) and always was meant to be a turf-route horse. Her performance level hit a new high when the filly switched to dirt, not because Yes It Tiz prefers dirt, but because the surface switch coincided with an equipment change – blinkers off. So, here we have Yet It Tiz’s first turf route without blinkers. She’s a better horse now than when last she tried turf. She didn’t seem to care at all for the wet track at Houston in her most recent start, and even more recent workout video is very, very encouraging. Oaklawn Mile With Full Serrano and East Avenue racing, can’t one hope for more than 3-1 on Nu What’s New? East Avenue remains a gorgeous horse, and I want to believe his talent can shine at 4 more than at 3 – but I can’t quite get there. Full Serrano gets his distance here, one mile, but he got it in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and lost by more than 12 lengths. They’re both coming into Nu What’s New’s house, and in Magnitude, he ran against a better horse than either of them in the Razorback. The half-furlong turn-back in distance helps Nu What’s New, who should carry a betting characteristic that never gets old – value. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.