A recent Eclipse Award-winning trainer has on several occasions expressed his deep preference for running dirt horses. Less chaos, less randomness than with grass horses. Too much of turf racing comes down to luck. Welp. We got three grass races in the hopper this week. Let’s get lucky. Yellow Ribbon At first glance, the Yellow Ribbon came forth as a blank, unsolvable puzzle. No pace. Not much separating the recent form of many. Clearly, Heredia at her best wins. The issue: Heredia’s best came 22 months ago running a straight-course mile at Newmarket. Diving deeper, a glimmer of brightening light thrummed through darkness. :: Access the most trusted data and information in horse racing! DRF Past Performances and Picks are available now. Hang the Moon did show some turf talent all along, but only after missing 10 months of racing and moving to trainer Phil D’Amato in California did Hang the Moon find herself. She got progressively faster last summer and fall, peaking in the Rodeo Drive, a race that included Beach Bomb, who came close to Grade 1 glory in the New York two months ago, and Be Your Best, easy winner of the Grade 1 Gamely in May. Not only did Hang the Moon go last to first, she’d slingshotted to the lead at the stretch call, burying that group with a 22.54-second final quarter-mile. In too tough in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, Hang the Moon looked over the top in any case, failing to quicken once clear of traffic at the head of the stretch. The Frankel in late December clearly was a bridge too far. One might guess Hang the Moon wants more distance than this, and that the trainer has an upcoming race as a goal. That’s not what we see in a long string of workouts available for video assessment. Hang the Moon does something at least mildly good in all of them, and often she’s considerably better than that. Moreover, the company works all are geared around her. Whether that meant having a workmate come behind to apply pressure, pushing Hang the Moon forward, or breezing in front of her, offering a target. No question of the superior horse in her Aug. 3 drill with Yellow Ribbon entrant Public Assembly. Maybe the Yellow Ribbon really is a murky mess. Maybe the Moon shines bright. Sword Dancer Far Bridge doesn’t come forth as an obviously vulnerable overbet favorite. On the contrary, he has won five of his last seven, the two losses coming when he failed to settle in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and at a nine-furlong distance too short for him in a close Manhattan call. And yet. . . . While his win in this race a year ago came over a much better horse, the late Measured Time, than anyone in this field, Far Bridge parlayed a major tactical advantage into victory that day, controlling a walking pace. Charlie Appleby trained Measured Time for Godolphin, and they have two runners this year. Nations Pride gets top stable jockey William Buick, and while El Cordobes has some merit on his own, he also possesses a measure of tactical pace that Flavien Prat almost certainly deploys. Far Bridge will have to work at least somewhat harder than in last year’s Sword Dancer as well as in the Bowling Green, where he handled a yielding course and got a dream run facing just three foes. In fact, with no interest in Nations Pride, I’m siding with Bowling Green runner-up El Rezeen. El Rezeen surely needed the Bowling Green, his first start in 2 1/2 months, second since October, and after he stopped scrumming with Harrow in upper stretch, El Rezeen launched an 11.87-second final furlong. El Rezeen still has upside, and finishing a mere head behind Deterministic, the best middle-distance turf horse going, last October suggests El Rezeen possesses the inherent quality to pull the upset. I think he can. Beverly D. Spanish Eyes has German form from last year that can get her home at a fair price Saturday in New Kent, Va. Not just her German Oaks, but the decent fourth in the Grosser Preis von Baden (the top two are super legit older horses), shows this filly’s quality. The Churchill comeback race served only to shake off rust and accustom Spanish Eyes to American racing. Had she broken better, and had Marksman Queen not controlled a slow tempo, Spanish Eyes wins last out at Delaware. As it was, the wire saved Marksman Queen. They’ll go just fast enough in the Beverly D. to give Spanish Eyes a fair shot. Third time off the bench, Spanish Eyes can see this one through. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.