Weekend GamePlan for Aug. 7, 2021: Picks for Test, Saratoga Derby, Ky. Downs Turf Sprint Preview
The Whitney, most important race in the land this Saturday, Aug. 7, has managed to come up both fascinating and utterly predictable.
I like all five entrants, and in a fair fight, any one of them could win. But with nobody to run with Knicks Go, the fight doesn’t look fair. Apparently, Knicks Go can deliver a far, far stronger punch racing two turns than one, and cruising along on the lead, he’s been untouchable in his two-turn starts since Brad Cox got him.
Soft competition has greased Maxfield’s path this year, but the one workout video available looked great. Silver State might be working even better, but he’s suspect at nine furlongs against competition this strong. Swiss Skydiver wasn’t really supposed to be in here, and By My Standards is the forgotten horse, an exacta partner for Knicks Go.
Test
Obligatory lost the Acorn Stakes on the far turn, where the horses in front of her, racing on a slow pace to that point, sprinted away, leaving her with too much to do in the final quarter-mile. She finished fastest, though, and really was getting to Search Results the final half-furlong. I think Obligatory does get there in the Test.
Cutting back to seven furlongs and moving from sweeping-turn Belmont to the tighter Saratoga track might help this filly, whose lone blemish this year came in her only two-turn start, at Fair Grounds, where she became totally lost during the middle stages. Where horses like the Chad Brown-trained pair of Search Results and Always Carina appeared to understand racing from their first start, Obligatory is on a longer-term trajectory, with more room to grow through the rest of this year.
I loved the available pair of workout videos – especially the solo drill July 9, but also her strong attack on Tacitus in a team breeze July 24 – and there ought to be ample pace to make this a fair contest.
Saratoga Derby
Just a lot to take in here, with five horses either based overseas or that have only raced overseas facing a group of Americans that, from the look of the Belmont Derby Invitational, have some stark limitations.
Bolshoi Ballet, the favorite here, ran over Du Jour, Palazzi, and Cellist in the Belmont Derby. Du Jour would appreciate firmer going than he got that day, and the half-furlong cutback in trip helps him, but his victories earlier this year came over suspect competition, and I can’t get behind any of these.
Soldier Rising, now with Christophe Clement, looked all right in his French races this year, but those were not especially high-class rivals he faced, and this looks like a 1 1/2-mile horse prepping for the next spot.
Cadillac started out with a bang as a 2-year-old but seemingly failed to develop, and, from the look of his lone 2021 run, hasn’t grown into a monster this year. He was part of a blanket finish last out at The Curragh in a race lacking any real star power.
Secret Protector lacks speed and will struggle to sufficiently quicken in a race like this, and the horse who beat him twice, Mohaafeth, lost some luster with a recent defeat at York. State of Rest looks a cut below.
So, either Bolshoi Ballet just wins again, or a new player steps forward. I’ll guess King Fury is that new player.
King Fury never has raced on turf, but sire Curlin gets all sorts of runners, and deeper down into the female family the grass influences are plentiful. He’s coming out of the best races among the American horses here and might actually have the speed to get into a very forward position from this outside draw. I couldn’t find video of the turf work but his July 24 drill appeared to be excellent, and his price will be fair.
Ky. Downs Turf Sprint Preview
Mr. Hustle showed high-level ability as a 2-year-old of 2019, and his price is going to be plenty square in this turf sprint because he has made only one start, a poor two-turn race at Gulfstream in January 2020, since that 2-year-old campaign. Searching DRF Formulator trainer stats, Eddie Kenneally the last five years has sent eight horses into turf sprints that were returning from a layoff of one year or more, and those horses has compiled a 3-2-1 record, the winners all coming in allowance competition.
Born Great is the other horse here who might prove especially tough, but surely his people are eyeing a return to Kentucky Downs, where he ran so well last season.